Storage space usage forecasting is critical for the scalability and stability of storage systems. Cloud providers estimate storage usages based on the forecast and allocate resources accordingly. Overestimated space usages require a redundant storage buffer that brings unnecessary cost, and underestimated space usages will cause capacity shortages that may lead to data loss and Service-Level Agreement (SLA) failures. While accurate storage forecasting is important, it is highly challenging due to various storage usage patterns on different workloads and storage systems. Moreover, some operations from users or administrators may cause transient workload burst in historical data, which makes forecasting even harder.In this paper, we propose the Storage Usage Forecasting Service (SUFS) that combines deep neural networks and statistical models adaptively to make predictions for multiple major storage systems in ByteDance. SUFS carries comprehensive analyses of storage usage time series from various storage systems in real business scenarios. To handle workload bursts in historical data, we enhance regular LSTMs using a control signal that is installed on the input gate. When the burst is detected, the control signal reduces the input influences to the cell state. To further improve the prediction accuracy, SUFS integrates the Enhanced-LSTM (ELSTM) with a novel adaptive ensemble method. Different from previous works, our approach learns dynamic ensemble weights for each prediction step on-the-fly, making our model more accurate for multiple-step predictions. SUFS has been deployed to serve more than 150,000 storage instances. We conducted extensive experiments on the storage systems that are widely-used in ByteDance, and the results show that SUFS outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and significantly reduces storage cost.

Random Utility Models (RUMs), which subsume Plackett-Luce model (PL) as a special case, are among the most popular models for preference learning. In this paper, we consider RUMs with features and their mixtures, where each alternative has a vector of features, possibly different across agents. Such models significantly generalize the standard PL and RUMs, but are not as well investigated in the literature. We extend mixtures of RUMs with features to models that generate incomplete preferences and characterize their identifiability. For PL, we prove that when PL with features is identifiable, its MLE is consistent with a strictly concave objective function under mild assumptions, by characterizing a bound on root-mean-square-error (RMSE), which naturally leads to a sample complexity bound. We also characterize identifiability of more general RUMs with features and propose a generalized RBCML to learn them. Our experiments on synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of MLE on PL with features with tradeoffs between statistical efficiency and computational efficiency. Our experiments on real-world data show the prediction power of PL with features and its mixtures.

Dual learning has been successfully applied in many machine learning applications including machine translation, image-to-image transformation, etc. The high-level idea of dual learning is very intuitive: if we map an $x$ from one domain to another and then map it back, we should recover the original $x$. Although its effectiveness has been empirically verified, theoretical understanding of dual learning is still very limited. In this paper, we aim at understanding why and when dual learning works. Based on our theoretical analysis, we further extend dual learning by introducing more related mappings and propose multi-step dual learning, in which we leverage feedback signals from additional domains to improve the qualities of the mappings. We prove that multi-step dual learning can boost the performance of standard dual learning under mild conditions. Experiments on WMT 14 English↔German and MultiUN English↔French translations verify our theoretical findings on dual learning, and the results on the translations among English, French, and Spanish of MultiUN demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-step dual learning

We propose an EM-based framework for learning Plackett-Luce model and its mixtures from partial orders. The core of our framework is the efficient sampling of linear extensions of partial orders under Plackett-Luce model. We propose two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers: Gibbs sampler and the generalized repeated insertion method tuned by MCMC (GRIM-MCMC), and prove the efficiency of GRIM-MCMC for a large class of preferences.Experiments on synthetic data show that the algorithm with Gibbs sampler outperforms that with GRIM-MCMC. Experiments on real-world data show that the likelihood of test dataset increases when (i) partial orders provide more information; or (ii) the number of components in mixtures of PlackettLuce model increases.

STV and ranked pairs (RP) are two well-studied voting rules for group decision-making. They proceed in multiple rounds, and are affected by how ties are broken in each round. However, the literature is surprisingly vague about how ties should be broken. We propose the first algorithms for computing the set of alternatives that are winners under some tiebreaking mechanism under STV and RP, which is also known as parallel-universes tiebreaking (PUT). Unfortunately, PUT-winners are NP-complete to compute under STV and RP, and standard search algorithms from AI do not apply. We propose multiple DFS-based algorithms along with pruning strategies, heuristics, sampling and machine learning to prioritize search direction to significantly improve the performance. We also propose novel ILP formulations for PUT-winners under STV and RP, respectively. Experiments on synthetic and realworld data show that our algorithms are overall faster than ILP.

Mixtures of ranking models have been widely used for heterogeneous preferences. However, learning a mixture model is highly nontrivial, especially when the dataset consists of partial orders. In such cases, the parameter of the model may not be even identifiable. In this paper, we focus on three popular structures of partial orders: ranked top-$l_1$, $l_2$-way, and choice data over a subset of alternatives. We prove that when the dataset consists of combinations of ranked top-$l_1$ and $l_2$-way (or choice data over up to $l_2$ alternatives), mixture of $k$ Plackett-Luce models is not identifiable when $l_1+l_2\le 2k-1$ ($l_2$ is set to $1$ when there are no $l_2$-way orders). We also prove that under some combinations, including ranked top-$3$, ranked top-$2$ plus $2$-way, and choice data over up to $4$ alternatives, mixtures of two Plackett-Luce models are identifiable. Guided by our theoretical results, we propose efficient generalized method of moments (GMM) algorithms to learn mixtures of two Plackett-Luce models, which are proven consistent. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms. Moreover, we show that when full rankings are available, learning from different marginal events (partial orders) provides tradeoffs between statistical efficiency and computational efficiency.

We tackle the problem of identifiability and efficient learning of mixtures of Random Utility Models (RUMs). We show that when the PDFs of utility distributions are symmetric, the mixture of k RUMs (denoted by k-RUM) is not identifiable when the number of alternatives m is no more than 2k-1. On the other hand, when m ≥ max{4k-2,6}, any k-RUM is generically identifiable. We then propose three algorithms for learning mixtures of RUMs: an EM-based algorithm, which we call E-GMM, a direct generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) algorithm, and a sandwich (GMM-E-GMM) algorithm that combines the other two. Experiments on synthetic data show that the sandwich algorithm achieves the highest statistical efficiency and GMM is the most computationally efficient. Experiments on real-world data at Preflib show that Gaussian k-RUMs provide better fitness than a single Gaussian RUM, the Plackett-Luce model, and mixtures of Plackett-Luce models w.r.t. commonly-used model fitness criteria. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on learning mixtures of general RUMs.

We propose a novel and flexible rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework for learning random utility models (RUMs), which include the Plackett-Luce model. We characterize conditions for the objective function of RBCML to be strictly log-concave by proving that strict log-concavity is preserved under convolution and marginalization. We characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for RBCML to satisfy consistency and asymptotic normality. Experiments on synthetic data show that RBCML for Gaussian RUMs achieves better statistical efficiency and computation efficiency than the state-of-the-art algorithm and our RBCML for the Plackett-Luce model provides flexible tradeoffs between running time and statistical efficiency.

In this paper we address the identifiability and efficient learning problems of finite mixtures of Plackett-Luce models for rank data. We prove that for any k≥2, the mixture of k Plackett-Luce models for no more than 2k-1 alternatives is non-identifiable and this bound is tight for k=2. For generic identifiability, we prove that the mixture of k Plackett-Luce models over m alternatives is \em generically identifiable if k≤⌊\frac m-2 2⌋!. We also propose an efficient generalized method of moments (GMM) algorithm to learn the mixture of two Plackett-Luce models and show that the algorithm is consistent. Our experiments show that our GMM algorithm is significantly faster than the EMM algorithm by Gormley & Murphy (2008), while achieving competitive statistical efficiency.

The classic association rules, Apriori algorithm and Fptree algorithm, are briefly illustrated to figure out the weakness of those algorithms. Then we develop an association rule tree algorithm from the idea of binary information granules. The algorithm retrieves the association rules from the association rule tree by computing of binary information granules, of which a system is converted from a transaction database. Finally, we discuss the practicality and feasibility of this approach with the actual instances and relevant reasoning of theorem.