Addressing the statistical challenge of computing the multivariate normal (MVN) probability in high dimensions holds significant potential for enhancing various applications. For example, the critical task of detecting confidence regions where a process probability surpasses a specific threshold is essential in diverse applications, such as pinpointing tumor locations in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan images, determining hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow issues, and forecasting regional wind power to optimize wind turbine placement, among numerous others. One common way to compute high-dimensional MVN probabilities is the Separation-of-Variables (SOV) algorithm. This algorithm is known for its high computational complexity of O(n3) and space complexity of O(n2), mainly due to a Cholesky factorization operation for an n×n covariance matrix, where n represents the dimensionality of the MVN problem. This work proposes a high-performance computing framework that allows scaling the SOV algorithm and, subsequently, the confidence region detection algorithm. The framework leverages parallel linear algebra algorithms with a task-based programming model to achieve performance scalability in computing process probabilities, especially on large-scale systems. In addition, we enhance our implementation by incorporating Tile Low-Rank (TLR) approximation techniques to reduce algorithmic complexity without compromising the necessary accuracy. To evaluate the performance and accuracy of our framework, we conduct assessments using simulated data and a wind speed dataset. Our proposed implementation effectively handles high-dimensional multivariate normal (MVN) probability computations on shared and distributed-memory systems using finite precision arithmetics and TLR approximation computation. Performance results show a significant speedup of up to 20X in solving the MVN problem using TLR approximation compared to the reference dense solution without sacrificing the application’s accuracy. The qualitative results on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate how we maintain high accuracy in detecting confidence regions even when relying on TLR approximation to perform the underlying linear algebra operations.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that are related to the response. For this setting, we propose a novel, scalable algorithm, coined VGPR, which optimizes a penalized GP log-likelihood based on the Vecchia GP approximation, an ordered conditional approximation from spatial statistics that implies a sparse Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. We traverse the regularization path from strong to weak penalization, sequentially adding candidate covariates based on the gradient of the log-likelihood and deselecting irrelevant covariates via a new quadratic constrained coordinate descent algorithm. We propose Vecchia-based mini-batch subsampling, which provides unbiased gradient estimators. The resulting procedure is scalable to millions of responses and thousands of covariates. Theoretical analysis and numerical studies demonstrate the improved scalability and accuracy relative to existing methods.