Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus in the recent past owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and has proved to be an important tool in controlling the pandemic. With the advent of reliable spatiotemporal data, graph neural network models have been able to successfully model the inter-relation between the cross-region signals to produce quality forecasts, but like most deep-learning models they do not explicitly incorporate the underlying causal mechanisms. In this work, we employ a causal mechanistic model to guide the learning of the graph embeddings and propose a novel learning framework -- Causal-based Graph Neural Network (CausalGNN) that learns spatiotemporal embedding in a latent space where graph input features and epidemiological context are combined via a mutually learning mechanism using graph-based non-linear transformations. We design an attention-based dynamic GNN module to capture spatial and temporal disease dynamics. A causal module is added to the framework to provide epidemiological context for node embedding via ordinary differential equations. Extensive experiments on forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 at global, US state, and US county levels show that the proposed method outperforms a broad range of baselines. The learned model which incorporates epidemiological context organizes the embedding in an efficient way by keeping the parameter size small leading to robust and accurate forecasting performance across various datasets.

Nighttime lights satellite imagery has been used for decades as a uniform, global source of data for studying a wide range of socioeconomic factors. Recently, another more terrestrial source is producing data with similarly uniform global coverage: anonymous and aggregated smart phone location. This data, which measures the movement patterns of people and populations rather than the light they produce, could prove just as valuable in decades to come. In fact, since human mobility is far more directly related to the socioeconomic variables being predicted, it has an even greater potential. Additionally, since cell phone locations can be aggregated in real time while preserving individual user privacy, it will be possible to conduct studies that would previously have been impossible because they require data from the present. Of course, it will take quite some time to establish the new techniques necessary to apply human mobility data to problems traditionally studied with satellite imagery and to conceptualize and develop new real time applications. In this study we demonstrate that it is possible to accelerate this process by inferring artificial nighttime satellite imagery from human mobility data, while maintaining a strong differential privacy guarantee. We also show that these artificial maps can be used to infer socioeconomic variables, often with greater accuracy than using actual satellite imagery. Along the way, we find that the relationship between mobility and light emissions is both nonlinear and varies considerably around the globe. Finally, we show that models based on human mobility can significantly improve our understanding of society at a global scale.

Foodborne illness afflicts 48 million people annually in the U.S. alone. Over 128,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 die from the infection. While preventable with proper food safety practices, the traditional restaurant inspection process has limited impact given the predictability and low frequency of inspections, and the dynamic nature of the kitchen environment. Despite this reality, the inspection process has remained largely unchanged for decades. We apply machine learning to Twitter data and develop a system that automatically detects venues likely to pose a public health hazard. Health professionals subsequently inspect individual flagged venues in a double blind experiment spanning the entire Las Vegas metropolitan area over three months. By contrast, previous research in this domain has been limited to indirect correlative validation using only aggregate statistics. We show that adaptive inspection process is 63% more effective at identifying problematic venues than the current state of the art. The live deployment shows that if every inspection in Las Vegas became adaptive, we can prevent over 9,000 cases of foodborne illness and 557 hospitalizations annually. Additionally, adaptive inspections result in unexpected benefits, including the identification of venues lacking permits, contagious kitchen staff, and fewer customer complaints filed with the Las Vegas health department.

Accurate home location is increasingly important for urban computing. Existing methods either rely on continuous (and expensive) Global Positioning System (GPS) data or suffer from poor accuracy. In particular, the sparse and noisy nature of social media data poses serious challenges in pinpointing where people live at scale. We revisit this research topic and infer home location within 100 m×100 m squares at 70% accuracy for 76% and 71% of active users in New York City and the Bay Area, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time home location has been detected at such a fine granularity using sparse and noisy data. Since people spend a large portion of their time at home, our model enables novel applications. As an example, we focus on modeling people’s health at scale by linking their home locations with publicly available statistics, such as education disparity. Results in multiple geographic regions demonstrate both the effectiveness and added value of our home localization method and reveal insights that eluded earlier studies. In addition, we are able to discover the real buzz in the communities where people live.

Computational approaches to health monitoring and epidemiology continue to evolve rapidly. We present an end-to-end system, nEmesis, that automatically identifies restaurants posing public health risks. Leveraging a language model of Twitter users' online communication, nEmesis finds individuals who are likely suffering from a foodborne illness. People's visits to restaurants are modeled by matching GPS data embedded in the messages with restaurant addresses. As a result, we can assign each venue a "health score" based on the proportion of customers that fell ill shortly after visiting it. Statistical analysis reveals that our inferred health score correlates (r = 0.30) with the official inspection data from the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH). We investigate the joint associations of multiple factors mined from online data with the DOHMH violation scores and find that over 23% of variance can be explained by our factors. We demonstrate that readily accessible online data can be used to detect cases of foodborne illness in a timely manner. This approach offers an inexpensive way to enhance current methods to monitor food safety (e.g., adaptive inspections) and identify potentially problematic venues in near-real time.

Research in computational epidemiology to date has concentrated on estimating summary statistics of populations and simulated scenarios of disease outbreaks. Detailed studies have been limited to small domains, as scaling the methods involved poses considerable challenges. By contrast, we model the associations of a large collection of social and environmental factors with the health of particular individuals. Instead of relying on surveys, we apply scalable machine learning techniques to noisy data mined from online social media and infer the health state of any given person in an automated way. We show that the learned patterns can be subsequently leveraged in descriptive as well as predictive fine-grained models of human health. Using a unified statistical model, we quantify the impact of social status, exposure to pollution, interpersonal interactions, and other important lifestyle factors on one's health. Our model explains more than 54% of the variance in people's health (as estimated from their online communication), and predicts the future health status of individuals with 91% accuracy. Our methods complement traditional studies in life sciences, as they enable us to perform large-scale and timely measurement, inference, and prediction of previously elusive factors that affect our everyday lives.

Much work has been done on predicting where is one going to be in the immediate future, typically within the next hour. By contrast, we address the open problem of predicting human mobility far into the future, a scale of months and years. We propose an efficient nonparametric method that extracts significant and robust patterns in location data, learns their associations with contextual features (such as day of week), and subsequently leverages this information to predict the most likely location at any given time in the future. The entire process is formulated in a principled way as an eigendecomposition problem. Evaluation on a massive dataset with more than 32,000 days worth of GPS data across 703 diverse subjects shows that our model predicts the correct location with high accuracy, even years into the future. This result opens a number of interesting avenues for future research and applications.

Researchers have begun to mine social network data in order to predict a variety of social, economic, and health related phenomena. While previous work has focused on predicting aggregate properties, such as the prevalence of seasonal influenza in a given country, we consider the task of fine-grained prediction of the health of specific people from noisy and incomplete data. We construct a probabilistic model that can predict if and when an individual will fall ill with high precision and good recall on the basis of his social ties and co-locations with other people, as revealed by their Twitter posts. Our model is highly scalable and can be used to predict general dynamic properties of individuals in large real-world social networks. These results provide a foundation for research on fundamental questions of public health, including the identification of non-cooperative disease carriers ("Typhoid Marys"), adaptive vaccination policies, and our understanding of the emergence of global epidemics from day-to-day interpersonal interactions.

Real-time captioning provides deaf and hard of hearing people immediate access to spoken language and enables participation in dialogue with others. Low latency is critical because it allows speech to be paired with relevant visual cues. Currently, the only reliable source of real-time captions are expensive stenographers who must be recruited in advance and who are trained to use specialized keyboards. Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is less expensive and available on-demand, but its low accuracy, high noise sensitivity, and need for training beforehand render it unusable in real-world situations. In this paper, we introduce a new approach in which groups of non-expert captionists (people who can hear and type) collectively caption speech in real-time on-demand. We present Legion:Scribe, an end-to-end system that allows deaf people to request captions at any time. We introduce an algorithm for merging partial captions into a single output stream in real-time, and a captioning interface designed to encourage coverage of the entire audio stream. Evaluation with 20 local participants and 18 crowd workers shows that non-experts can provide an effective solution for captioning, accurately covering an average of 93.2% of an audio stream with only 10 workers and an average per-word latency of 2.9 seconds. More generally, our model in which multiple workers contribute partial inputs that are automatically merged in real-time may be extended to allow dynamic groups to surpass constituent individuals (even experts) on a variety of human performance tasks.

Location plays an essential role in our lives, bridging our online and offline worlds. This paper explores the interplay between people's location, interactions, and their social ties within a large real-world dataset. We present and evaluate Flap, a system that solves two intimately related tasks: link and location prediction in online social networks. For link prediction, Flap infers social ties by considering patterns in friendship formation, the content of people's messages, and user location. We show that while each component is a weak predictor of friendship alone, combining them results in a strong model, accurately identifying the majority of friendships. For location prediction, Flap implements a scalable probabilistic model of human mobility, where we treat users with known GPS positions as noisy sensors of the location of their friends. We explore supervised and unsupervised learning scenarios, and focus on the efficiency of both learning and inference. We evaluate Flap on a large sample of highly active users from two distinct geographical areas and show that it (1) reconstructs the entire friendship graph with high accuracy even when no edges are given; and (2) infers people's fine-grained location, even when they keep their data private and we can only access the location of their friends. Our models significantly outperform current comparable approaches to either task.

Recent research has shown that surprisingly rich models of human activity can be learned from GPS (positional) data. However, most effort to date has concentrated on modeling single individuals or statistical properties of groups of people. Moreover, prior work focused solely on modeling actual successful executions (and not failed or attempted executions) of the activities of interest. We, in contrast, take on the task of understanding human interactions, attempted interactions, and intentions from noisy sensor data in a fully relational multi-agent setting. We use a real-world game of capture the flag to illustrate our approach in a well-defined domain that involves many distinct cooperative and competitive joint activities. We model the domain using Markov logic, a statistical-relational language, and learn a theory that jointly denoises the data and infers occurrences of high-level activities, such as a player capturing an enemy. Our unified model combines constraints imposed by the geometry of the game area, the motion model of the players, and by the rules and dynamics of the game in a probabilistically and logically sound fashion. We show that while it may be impossible to directly detect a multi-agent activity due to sensor noise or malfunction, the occurrence of the activity can still be inferred by considering both its impact on the future behaviors of the people involved as well as the events that could have preceded it. Further, we show that given a model of successfully performed multi-agent activities, along with a set of examples of failed attempts at the same activities, our system automatically learns an augmented model that is capable of recognizing success and failure, as well as goals of people's actions with high accuracy. We compare our approach with other alternatives and show that our unified model, which takes into account not only relationships among individual players, but also relationships among activities over the entire length of a game, although more computationally costly, is significantly more accurate. Finally, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling unsuccessful attempts boosts performance on other important recognition tasks.

Recent research has shown that surprisingly rich models of human behavior can be learned from GPS (positional) data. However, most research to date has concentrated on modeling single individuals or aggregate statistical properties of groups of people. Given noisy real-world GPS data, we---in contrast---consider the problem of modeling and recognizing activities that involve multiple related individuals playing a variety of roles. Our test domain is the game of capture the flag---an outdoor game that involves many distinct cooperative and competitive joint activities. We model the domain using Markov logic, a statistical relational language, and learn a theory that jointly denoises the data and infers occurrences of high-level activities, such as capturing a player. Our model combines constraints imposed by the geometry of the game area, the motion model of the players, and by the rules and dynamics of the game in a probabilistically and logically sound fashion. We show that while it may be impossible to directly detect a multi-agent activity due to sensor noise or malfunction, the occurrence of the activity can still be inferred by considering both its impact on the future behaviors of the people involved as well as the events that could have preceded it. We compare our unified approach with three alternatives (both probabilistic and nonprobabilistic) where either the denoising of the GPS data and the detection of the high-level activities are strictly separated, or the states of the players are not considered, or both. We show that the unified approach with the time window spanning the entire game, although more computationally costly, is significantly more accurate.