Prescription (aka Rx) drugs can be easily overprescribed and lead to drug abuse or opioid overdose. Accordingly, a state-run prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) in the United States has been developed to reduce overprescribing. However, PDMP has limited capability in detecting patients' potential overprescribing behaviors, impairing its effectiveness in preventing drug abuse and overdose in patients. In this paper, we propose a novel model RxNet, which builds 1) a dynamic heterogeneous graph to model Rx refills that are essentially prescribing and dispensing (P&D) relationships among various patients, 2) an RxLSTM network to explore the dynamic Rx-refill behavior and medical condition variation of patients, and 3) a dosing-adaptive network to extract and recalibrate dosing patterns and obtain the refined patient representations which are finally utilized for overprescribing detection. The extensive experimental results on a one-year state-wide PDMP data demonstrate that RxNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting patients at high risk of opioid overdose and drug abuse.

Opioids (e.g., oxycodone and morphine) are highly addictive prescription (aka Rx) drugs which can be easily overprescribed and lead to opioid overdose. Recently, the opioid epidemic is increasingly serious across the US as its related deaths have risen at alarming rates. To combat the deadly opioid epidemic, a state-run prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) has been established to alleviate the drug over-prescribing problem in the US. Although PDMP provides a detailed prescription history related to opioids, it is still not enough to prevent opioid overdose because it cannot predict over-prescribing risk. In addition, existing machine learning-based methods mainly focus on drug doses while ignoring other prescribing patterns behind patients' historical records, thus resulting in suboptimal performance. To this end, we propose a novel model DDHGNN - Disentangled Dynamic Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network, for over-prescribing prediction. Specifically, we abstract the PDMP data into a dynamic heterogeneous graph which comprehensively depicts the prescribing and dispensing (P&D) relationships. Then, we design a dynamic heterogeneous graph neural network to learn patients' representations. Furthermore, we devise an adversarial disentangler to learn a disentangled representation which is particularly related to the prescribing patterns. Extensive experiments on a 1-year anonymous PDMP data demonstrate that DDHGNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods, revealing its promising future in preventing opioid overdose.

Prescription (aka Rx) drugs can be easily overprescribed and lead to drug abuse or opioid overdose. Accordingly, a state-run prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) in the United States has been developed to reduce Overprescribing. However, PDMP has limited capability in detecting patients' potential overprescribing behaviors, impairing its effectiveness in preventing drug abuse and overdose in patients. Despite a few machine-learning-based methods that have been proposed for detecting overprescribing, they usually ignore the patient prescribing behavior and their performances are not satisfying. In light of this, we propose a novel model RxNet for overprescribing detection in PDMP. RxNet builds a dynamic heterogeneous graph to model Rx refills that are essentially prescribing and dispensing (P&D) relationships among various Rx entries (e.g., patients) whose representations are encoded by graph neural network. In addition, to explore the dynamic Rx-refill behavior and medical condition variation of patients, an RxLSTM network is designed to update representations of patients. Based on the output of RxLSTM, a dosing-adaptive network is leveraged to extract and recalibrate dosing patterns and obtain the refined patient representations which are finally utilized for overprescribing detection. The extensive experimental results on a 1-year Ohio PDMP data demonstrate that RxNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting patients at high risk of opioid overdose and drug abuse, with an average of 5.7% and 7.3% improvement on F1 score respectively.

The emerging underground markets (e.g., Hack Forums) have been widely used by cybercriminals to trade in illicit products or services, which have played a vital role in the cybercriminal ecosystem. In order to combat the evolving cybercrimes, in this paper, we propose and develop an intelligent framework (named PIdentifier) to automate the analysis of Hack Forums for the identification of illicit product traded in a private contract at the first attempt (to evade the law enforcement, a private contract is made between a vendor and a buyer where the traded product and its detail are invisible). In PIdentifier, based on the large-scale extracted user profiles, user posts and different types of relations within the complex ecosystem in Hack Forums, we first introduce an attributed heterogeneous information network (AHIN) to model the rich semantics and complex relations among multi-typed entities (i.e., vendors, buyers, products, comments and topics). Then, we design different metagraphs to formulate the relatedness between buyers and products based on which a metagraph aggregated heterogeneous graph neural network (denoted as mHGNN) is proposed to learn node representations for illicit traded product identification by attentively propagating and aggregating the neighborhood information defined by the designed metagraphs. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on the real-world dataset collected from Hack Forums. Promising results demonstrate the performance of our proposed PIdentifier framework in illicit traded product identification by comparison with the state-of-the-art baselines.

Survival classification on time-to-event clinical data is useful in clinical research. Survival analysis techniques are widely used to predict the survival probability over time that a particular event occurs. It is crucial to identify the risk of experiencing the event for patients, which can be achieved by classifying risk groups of patients. However, the existing classification methods, such as logistic regression, support vector machines and artificial neural network, cannot be applied to clinical data directly, due to the context of censoring. To address this problem, we propose a new two-tied labeling approach for reformulating the clinical data and make classifiers available to process such data. We perform such labeling on real-life clinical data and the good performances achieved by the classification methods reveal the great promise of our approach for risk group classification.

Survival prediction is crucial to healthcare research, but is confined primarily to specific types of data involving only the present measurements. This paper considers the more general class of healthcare data found in practice, which includes a wealth of intermittently varying historical measurements in addition to the present measurements. Making survival predictions on such data bristles with challenges to the existing prediction models. For this reason, we propose a new semi-proportional hazards model using locally time-varying coefficients, and a novel complete-data model learning criterion for coefficient optimization. Experiments on the healthcare data demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our model and its promise in practical applications.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) accounts for the highest rate of hospital readmissions and is the third leading cause of death in Canada, the United States and worldwide. Predicting COPD failure provides a prognostic warning of death or readmission, and is crucial to early intervention and decision-making. The aim of this study is to perform COPD failure prediction on longitudinal data. To address the inappropriate estimation of Cox hazard in current approaches, we propose a new representation of hazard to capture the relationship between survival probability and time-varying risk factors in a concise but effective way. To optimize model parameters, we design and maximize a new joint likelihood that comprises two components used to estimate survival status separately for failure and censored patients. A regularized optimization is performed on the joint likelihood to prevent overfitting arising from model learning. Our approach is applied to a real-life COPD data set and outperforms the current state-of-the-art prediction models in terms of the survival AUC, concordance index and Birer score metrics, this reveals that the great promise of our approach for clinical prediction.