SUMMARY: The study of microbial communities is vital for understanding their impact on environmental, health, and technological domains. The Modelling and Inference of MICrobiomes Project (MIMIC) introduces a Python package designed to advance the simulation, inference, and prediction of microbial community interactions and dynamics. Addressing the complex nature of microbial ecosystems, MIMIC integrates a suite of mathematical models, including previously used approaches such as Generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV), Gaussian Processes (GP), and Vector Autoregression (VAR) plus newly developed models for integrating multi-omic data, to offer a versatile framework for analyzing microbial dynamics. By leveraging Bayesian inference and machine learning techniques, MIMIC provides the ability to infer the dynamics of microbial communities from empirical data, facilitating a deeper understanding of their complex biological processes, unveiling possible unknown ecological interactions, and enabling the design of microbial communities. Such insights could help to advance microbial ecology research, optimizing biotechnological applications, and contribute to environmental sustainability and public health strategies. MIMIC is designed for flexibility and ease of use, aiming to support researchers and practitioners in microbial ecology and microbiome research. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: MIMIC is freely available under the MIT License at https://github.com/ucl-cssb/MIMIC. It is implemented in Python (version 3.7 or higher) and is compatible with Windows, macOS, and Linux operating systems. MIMIC depends on standard Python libraries including NumPy, SciPy, and PyMC. Comprehensive examples and tutorials (including the main text demonstrations) are provided as Jupyter notebooks in the examples/directory and at the MIMIC Docs website, along with detailed installation instructions and real-world data use cases. The software will remain freely available for at least two years following publication. A code snapshot for this publication is also available at Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15149003.

Predictability is a fundamental requirement in biological engineering. As we move to building coordinated multicellular systems, the potential for such systems to display chaotic behaviour becomes a concern. Therefore understanding which systems show chaos is an important design consideration. We developed a methodology to explore the potential for chaotic dynamics in small microbial communities governed by resource competition, intercellular communication and competitive bacteriocin interactions. Our model selection pipeline uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to first identify oscillatory behaviours as a route to finding chaotic behaviour. We have shown that we can expect to find chaotic states in relatively small synthetic microbial systems, understand the governing dynamics and provide insights into how to control such systems. This work is the first to query the existence of chaotic behaviour in synthetic microbial communities and has important ramifications for the fields of biotechnology, bioprocessing and synthetic biology.

The field of optimal experimental design uses mathematical techniques to determine experiments that are maximally informative from a given experimental setup. Here we apply a technique from artificial intelligence-reinforcement learning-to the optimal experimental design task of maximizing confidence in estimates of model parameter values. We show that a reinforcement learning approach performs favourably in comparison with a one-step ahead optimisation algorithm and a model predictive controller for the inference of bacterial growth parameters in a simulated chemostat. Further, we demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning to train over a distribution of parameters, indicating that this approach is robust to parametric uncertainty.

Multi-species microbial communities are widespread in natural ecosystems. When employed for biomanufacturing, engineered synthetic communities have shown increased productivity in comparison with monocultures and allow for the reduction of metabolic load by compartmentalising bioprocesses between multiple sub-populations. Despite these benefits, co-cultures are rarely used in practice because control over the constituent species of an assembled community has proven challenging. Here we demonstrate, in silico, the efficacy of an approach from artificial intelligence-reinforcement learning-for the control of co-cultures within continuous bioreactors. We confirm that feedback via a trained reinforcement learning agent can be used to maintain populations at target levels, and that model-free performance with bang-bang control can outperform a traditional proportional integral controller with continuous control, when faced with infrequent sampling. Further, we demonstrate that a satisfactory control policy can be learned in one twenty-four hour experiment by running five bioreactors in parallel. Finally, we show that reinforcement learning can directly optimise the output of a co-culture bioprocess. Overall, reinforcement learning is a promising technique for the control of microbial communities.

The complex dynamics of biological systems is primarily driven by molecular interactions that underpin the regulatory networks of cells. These networks typically contain positive and negative feedback loops, which are responsible for switch-like and oscillatory dynamics, respectively. Many computing systems rely on switches and clocks as computational modules. While the combination of such modules in biological systems leads to a variety of dynamical behaviours, it is also driving development of new computing algorithms. Here we present a historical perspective on computation by biological systems, with a focus on switches and clocks, and discuss parallels between biology and computing. We also outline our vision for the future of biological computing.

DNA double-strand breaks are lesions that form during metabolism, DNA replication and exposure to mutagens. When a double-strand break occurs one of a number of repair mechanisms is recruited, all of which have differing propensities for mutational events. Despite DNA repair being of crucial importance, the relative contribution of these mechanisms and their regulatory interactions remain to be fully elucidated. Understanding these mutational processes will have a profound impact on our knowledge of genomic instability, with implications across health, disease and evolution. Here we present a new method to model the combined activation of non-homologous end joining, single strand annealing and alternative end joining, following exposure to ionising radiation. We use Bayesian statistics to integrate eight biological data sets of double-strand break repair curves under varying genetic knockouts and confirm that our model is predictive by re-simulating and comparing to additional data. Analysis of the model suggests that there are at least three disjoint modes of repair, which we assign as fast, slow and intermediate. Our results show that when multiple data sets are combined, the rate for intermediate repair is variable amongst genetic knockouts. Further analysis suggests that the ratio between slow and intermediate repair depends on the presence or absence of DNA-PKcs and Ku70, which implies that non-homologous end joining and alternative end joining are not independent. Finally, we consider the proportion of double-strand breaks within each mechanism as a time series and predict activity as a function of repair rate. We outline how our insights can be directly tested using imaging and sequencing techniques and conclude that there is evidence of variable dynamics in alternative repair pathways. Our approach is an important step towards providing a unifying theoretical framework for the dynamics of DNA repair processes.

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis.

MOTIVATION: Mathematical modelling is central to systems and synthetic biology. Using simulations to calculate statistics or to explore parameter space is a common means for analysing these models and can be computationally intensive. However, in many cases, the simulations are easily parallelizable. Graphics processing units (GPUs) are capable of efficiently running highly parallel programs and outperform CPUs in terms of raw computing power. Despite their computational advantages, their adoption by the systems biology community is relatively slow, since differences in hardware architecture between GPUs and CPUs complicate the porting of existing code. RESULTS: We present a Python package, cuda-sim, that provides highly parallelized algorithms for the repeated simulation of biochemical network models on NVIDIA CUDA GPUs. Algorithms are implemented for the three popular types of model formalisms: the LSODA algorithm for ODE integration, the Euler-Maruyama algorithm for SDE simulation and the Gillespie algorithm for MJP simulation. No knowledge of GPU computing is required from the user. Models can be specified in SBML format or provided as CUDA code. For running a large number of simulations in parallel, up to 360-fold decrease in simulation runtime is attained when compared to single CPU implementations. AVAILABILITY: http://cuda-sim.sourceforge.net/

MOTIVATION: The growing field of systems biology has driven demand for flexible tools to model and simulate biological systems. Two established problems in the modeling of biological processes are model selection and the estimation of associated parameters. A number of statistical approaches, both frequentist and Bayesian, have been proposed to answer these questions. RESULTS: Here we present a Python package, ABC-SysBio, that implements parameter inference and model selection for dynamical systems in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework. ABC-SysBio combines three algorithms: ABC rejection sampler, ABC SMC for parameter inference and ABC SMC for model selection. It is designed to work with models written in Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). Deterministic and stochastic models can be analyzed in ABC-SysBio. AVAILABILITY: http://abc-sysbio.sourceforge.net