This paper studies the problem of dimension reduction, tailored to improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors. We propose a novel Supervised Deep Dynamic Principal component analysis (SDDP) framework that incorporates the target variable and lagged observations into the factor extraction process. Assisted by a temporal neural network, we construct target-aware predictors by scaling the original predictors in a supervised manner, with larger weights assigned to predictors with stronger forecasting power. A principal component analysis is then performed on the target-aware predictors to extract the estimated SDDP factors. This supervised factor extraction not only improves predictive accuracy in the downstream forecasting task but also yields more interpretable and target-specific latent factors. Building upon SDDP, we propose a factor-augmented nonlinear dynamic forecasting model that unifies a broad family of factor-model-based forecasting approaches. To further demonstrate the broader applicability of SDDP, we extend our studies to a more challenging scenario when the predictors are only partially observable. We validate the empirical performance of the proposed method on several real-world public datasets. The results show that our algorithm achieves notable improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be restrictive in practice. To address this, we introduce a high-dimensional non-parametric sparse additive model, providing a more flexible framework. Our method employs basis expansions to construct high-dimensional nonlinear VAR models. We derive convergence rates and model selection consistency for least squared estimators, considering dependence measures of the processes, error moment conditions, sparsity, and basis expansions. Our theory significantly extends prior linear VAR models by incorporating both non-Gaussianity and non-linearity. As a key contribution, we derive sharp Bernstein-type inequalities for tail probabilities in both non-sub-Gaussian linear and nonlinear VAR processes, which match the classical Bernstein inequality for independent random variables. Additionally, we present numerical experiments that support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the advantages of the nonlinear VAR model for a gene expression time series dataset.

This paper studies the prediction task of tensor-on-tensor regression in which both covariates and responses are multi-dimensional arrays (a.k.a., tensors) across time with arbitrary tensor order and data dimension. Existing methods either focused on linear models without accounting for possibly nonlinear relationships between covariates and responses, or directly employed black-box deep learning algorithms that failed to utilize the inherent tensor structure. In this work, we propose a Factor Augmented Tensor-on-Tensor Neural Network (FATTNN) that integrates tensor factor models into deep neural networks. We begin with summarizing and extracting useful predictive information (represented by the ``factor tensor'') from the complex structured tensor covariates, and then proceed with the prediction task using the estimated factor tensor as input of a temporal convolutional neural network. The proposed methods effectively handle nonlinearity between complex data structures, and improve over traditional statistical models and conventional deep learning approaches in both prediction accuracy and computational cost. By leveraging tensor factor models, our proposed methods exploit the underlying latent factor structure to enhance the prediction, and in the meantime, drastically reduce the data dimensionality that speeds up the computation. The empirical performances of our proposed methods are demonstrated via simulation studies and real-world applications to three public datasets. Numerical results show that our proposed algorithms achieve substantial increases in prediction accuracy and significant reductions in computational time compared to benchmark methods.

The CP decomposition for high dimensional non-orthogonal spiked tensors is an important problem with broad applications across many disciplines. However, previous works with theoretical guarantee typically assume restrictive incoherence conditions on the basis vectors for the CP components. In this paper, we propose new computationally efficient composite PCA and concurrent orthogonalization algorithms for tensor CP decomposition with theoretical guarantees under mild incoherence conditions. The composite PCA applies the principal component or singular value decompositions twice, first to a matrix unfolding of the tensor data to obtain singular vectors and then to the matrix folding of the singular vectors obtained in the first step. It can be used as an initialization for any iterative optimization schemes for the tensor CP decomposition. The concurrent orthogonalization algorithm iteratively estimates the basis vector in each mode of the tensor by simultaneously applying projections to the orthogonal complements of the spaces generated by other CP components in other modes. It is designed to improve the alternating least squares estimator and other forms of the high order orthogonal iteration for tensors with low or moderately high CP ranks, and it is guaranteed to have second or higher order convergence when the error of any given initial estimator is bounded by a small constant. Our theoretical investigation provides estimation accuracy and convergence rates for the two proposed algorithms. Both proposed algorithms are applicable to deterministic tensor, its noisy version, and the order-$2K$covariance tensor of order-$K$tensor data in a factor model with uncorrelated factors. Simulation experiments demonstrate significant practical superiority of our approach over existing methods.