Calculating the Shannon entropy for symbolic sequences has been widely considered in many fields. For descriptive statistical problems such as estimating the N-gram entropy of English language text, a common approach is to use as much data as possible to obtain progressively more accurate estimates. However, in some instances, only short sequences may be available. This gives rise to the question of how many samples are needed to compute entropy. In this paper, we examine this problem and propose a method for estimating the number of samples required to compute Shannon entropy for a set of ranked symbolic “natural” events. The result is developed using a modified Zipf-Mandelbrot law and the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality, and we propose an approximation which yields an estimate for the minimum number of samples required to obtain an estimate of entropy with a given confidence level and degree of accuracy.

Determining the most appropriate inputs to a model has a significant impact on the performance of the model and associated algorithms for classification, prediction, and data analysis. Previously, we proposed an algorithm ICAIVS which utilizes independent component analysis (ICA) as a preprocessing stage to overcome issues of dependencies between inputs, before the data being passed through to an input variable selection (IVS) stage. While we demonstrated previously with artificial data that ICA can prevent an overestimation of necessary input variables, we show here that mixing between input variables is common in real-world data sets so that ICA preprocessing is useful in practice. This experimental test is based on new measures introduced in this paper. Furthermore, we extend the implementation of our variable selection scheme to a statistical dependency test based on mutual information and test several algorithms on Gaussian and sub-Gaussian signals. Specifically, we propose a novel method of quantifying linear dependencies using ICA estimates of mixing matrices with a new linear mixing measure (LMM).

Recently, there has been interest in the observed capabilities of some classes of neural networks with fixed weights to model multiple nonlinear dynamical systems. While this property has been observed in simulations, open questions exist as to how this property can arise. In this article, we propose a theory that provides a possible mechanism by which this multiple modeling phenomenon can occur.

The problem of input variable selection is well known in the task of modeling real-world data. In this paper, we propose a novel model-free algorithm for input variable selection using independent component analysis and higher order cross statistics. Experimental results are given which indicate that the method is capable of giving reliable performance and that it outperforms other approaches when the inputs are dependent.

We propose a scheme for pattern classifications in applications which include ambiguous data, that is, where pattern occupy overlapping areas in the feature space. Such situations frequently occur with noisy data and/or where some features are unknown. We demonstrate that it is advantageous to first detect those ambiguous areas with the help of training data and then to re-classify those data in these areas as ambiguous before making class predictions on test sets. This scheme is demonstrated with a simple example and benchmarked on two real world applications.

The problem of input variable selection is well known in the task of modeling real world data. In this paper we propose a novel model-free algorithm for input variable selection using independent component analysis and higher order cross statistics. Experimental results are given which indicate that the method is capable of giving reliable performance and that it outperforms other approaches when the inputs are dependent.

The paper discusses the application of a signal processing technique known as independent component analysis (ICA), also called blind source separation, to multivariate financial time series. The key idea of ICA is to linearly map observed multivariate time series (such as a portfolio of stocks) into a new space of components that are statistically independent. The authors apply ICA to daily returns of the 28 largest Japanese stocks and compare the ICA results to principal component analysis. Their results indicate that the estimated ICs fall into two categories, (i) infrequent but large shocks (responsible for the major changes in the stock prices), and (ii) frequent but rather small fluctuations (contributing little to the overall level of the stocks). They show that the overall stock price can be reconstructed surprisingly well by thresholding the weighted ICs and using, on average, only one such shock per quarter. In contrast, when using shocks derived from principal components instead of independent components, the reconstructed price does not resemble the original one. The technique of ICA is shown to be a potentially powerful method to analyze and understand driving mechanisms in financial time series.

The problem of high sensitivity in modeling is well known. Small perturbations in the model parameters may result in large, undesired changes in the model behavior. A number of authors have considered the issue of sensitivity in feedforward neural networks from a probabilistic perspective. Less attention has been given to such issues in recurrent neural networks. In this article, we present a new recurrent neural network architecture, that is capable of significantly improved parameter sensitivity properties compared to existing recurrent neural networks. The new recurrent neural network generalizes previous architectures by employing alternative discrete-time operators in place of the shift operator normally used. An analysis of the model demonstrates the existence of parameter sensitivity in recurrent neural networks and supports the proposed architecture. The new architecture performs significantly better than previous recurrent neural networks, as shown by a series of simple numerical experiments.

This paper explores the application of a signal processing technique known as independent component analysis (ICA) or blind source separation to multivariate financial time series such as a portfolio of stocks. The key idea of ICA is to linearly map the observed multivariate time series into a new space of statistically independent components (ICs). We apply ICA to three years of daily returns of the 28 largest Japanese stocks and compare the results with those obtained using principal component analysis. The results indicate that the estimated ICs fall into two categories, (i) infrequent large shocks (responsible for the major changes in the stock prices), and (ii) frequent smaller fluctuations (contributing little to the overall level of the stocks). We show that the overall stock price can be reconstructed surprisingly well by using a small number of thresholded weighted ICs. In contrast, when using shocks derived from principal components instead of independent components, the reconstructed price is less similar to the original one. ICA is shown to be a potentially powerful method of analyzing and understanding driving mechanisms in financial time series. The application to portfolio optimization is described in Chin and Weigend (1998).

The performance of neural network simulations is often reported in terms of the mean and standard deviation of a number of simulations performed with different starting conditions. However, in many cases, the distribution of the individual results does not approximate a Gaussian distribution, may not be symmetric, and may be multimodal. We present the distribution of results for practical problems and show that assuming Gaussian distributions can significantly affect the interpretation of results, especially those of comparison studies. For a controlled task which we consider, we find that the distribution of performance is skewed toward better performance for smoother target functions and skewed toward worse performance for more complex target functions. We propose new guidelines for reporting performance which provide more information about the actual distribution.

We present a hybrid neural-network for human face recognition which compares favourably with other methods. The system combines local image sampling, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network, and a convolutional neural network. The SOM provides a quantization of the image samples into a topological space where inputs that are nearby in the original space are also nearby in the output space, thereby providing dimensionality reduction and invariance to minor changes in the image sample, and the convolutional neural network provides partial invariance to translation, rotation, scale, and deformation. The convolutional network extracts successively larger features in a hierarchical set of layers. We present results using the Karhunen-Loeve transform in place of the SOM, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) in place of the convolutional network for comparison. We use a database of 400 images of 40 individuals which contains quite a high degree of variability in expression, pose, and facial details. We analyze the computational complexity and discuss how new classes could be added to the trained recognizer.

In this paper, we will consider a number of local-recurrent-global-feedforward (LRGF) networks that have been introduced by a number of research groups in the past few years. We first analyze the various architectures, with a view to highlighting their differences. Then we introduce a general LRGF network structure that includes most of the network architectures that have been proposed to date. Finally we will indicate some open issues concerning these types of networks.

A network architecture with a global feedforward local recurrent construction was presented recently as a new means of modeling nonlinear dynamic time series (Back and Tsoi 1991a). The training rule used was based on minimizing the least mean square (LMS) error and performed well, although the amount of memory required for large networks may become significant if a large number of feedback connections are used. In this note, a modified training algorithm based on a technique for linear filters is presented, simplifying the gradient calculations significantly. The memory requirements are reduced from O[na(na + nb)Ns] to O[(2na + nb)Ns], where na is the number of feedback delays, and Ns is the total number of synapses. The new algorithm reduces the number of multiply-adds needed to train each synapse by na at each time step. Simulations indicate that the algorithm has almost identical performance to the previous one.

Time-series modeling is a topic of growing interest in neural network research. Various methods have been proposed for extending the nonlinear approximation capabilities to time-series modeling problems. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) with a global-feedforward local-recurrent structure was recently introduced as a new approach to modeling dynamic systems. The network uses adaptive infinite impulse response (IIR) synapses (it is thus termed an IIR MLP), and was shown to have good modeling performance. One problem with linear IIR filters is that the rate of convergence depends on the covariance matrix of the input data. This extends to the IIR MLP: it learns well for white input signals, but converges more slowly with nonwhite inputs. To solve this problem, the adaptive lattice multilayer perceptron (AL MLP), is introduced. The network structure performs Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization on the input data to each synapse. The method is based on the same principles as the Gram-Schmidt neural net proposed by Orfanidis (1990b), but instead of using a network layer for the orthogonalization, each synapse comprises an adaptive lattice filter. A learning algorithm is derived for the network that minimizes a mean square error criterion. Simulations are presented to show that the network architecture significantly improves the learning rate when correlated input signals are present.

A new neural network architecture involving either local feedforward global feedforward, and/or local recurrent global feedforward structure is proposed. A learning rule minimizing a mean square error criterion is derived. The performance of this algorithm (local recurrent global feedforward architecture) is compared with a local-feedforward global-feedforward architecture. It is shown that the local-recurrent global-feedforward model performs better than the local-feedforward global-feedforward model.