The epidemiology of chronic viral infections, such as those caused by Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), is affected by the risk group structure of the infected population. Risk groups are defined by each of their members having acquired infection through a specific behavior. However, risk group definitions say little about the transmission potential of each infected individual. Variation in the number of secondary infections is extremely difficult to estimate for HCV and HIV but crucial in the design of efficient control interventions. Here we describe a novel method that combines epidemiological and population genetic approaches to estimate the variation in transmissibility of rapidly-evolving viral epidemics. We evaluate this method using a nationwide HCV epidemic and for the first time co-estimate viral generation times and superspreading events from a combination of molecular and epidemiological data. We anticipate that this integrated approach will form the basis of powerful tools for describing the transmission dynamics of chronic viral diseases, and for evaluating control strategies directed against them.

Abstract Summary: We developed a software tool (SlidingBayes) for recombination analysis based on Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Sliding-Bayes provides a powerful approach for detecting potential recombination, especially between highly divergent sequences and complex HIV-1 recombinants for which simpler methods like neighbor joining (NJ) may be less powerful. SlidingBayes guides Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling performed by MrBayes in a sliding window across the alignment (Bayesian scanning). The tool can be used for nucleotide and amino acid sequences and combines all the modeling possibilities of MrBayes with the ability to plot the posterior probability support for clustering of various combinations of taxa. Availability: SlidingBayes is available at http://www.kuleuven.ac.be/rega/cev/Software/ Contact: [email protected] Supplementary information: A quick guide and examples for SlidingBayes are available at http://www.kuleuven.ac.be/rega/cev/Software/

MOTIVATION: Genetic analysis of HIV-1 is important not only for vaccine development, but also to guide treatment strategies, track the emergence of new viral variants and ensure that diagnostic assays are contemporary and fully optimized. However, most genotyping methods are laborious and complex, and involve the use of multiple software applications. Here, we describe the development of an automated genotyping system that can be easily applied to HIV-1 and other rapidly evolving viral pathogens. RESULTS: The new REGA subtyping tool, developed using Java programming and PERL scripts, combines phylogenetic analyses with boot-scanning methods for the genetic subtyping of full-length and subgenomic fragments of HIV-1. When used to investigate the subtype of previously published reference datasets that were analysed using manual phylogenetic methods, the automated method correctly identified 97.5-100% of non-recombinant and circulating recombinant forms of HIV-1, including 108 full-length, 108 gag and 221 env sequences downloaded from the Los Alamos database.