Black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a general-purpose approximate inference approach that converts inference to a stochastic optimization problem. However, the difficulty of solving the BBVI optimization problem reliably and robustly using stochastic gradient methods has limited its applicability. We present a novel optimization approach for BBVI using the sample average approximation (SAA). SAA converts stochastic problems to deterministic ones by optimizing over a fixed random sample, which enables optimization tools such as quasi-Newton methods and line search that bypass the difficulties faced by stochastic gradient methods. We design an approach called "SAA for VI" that solves a sequence of SAA problems with increasing sample sizes to reliably and robustly solve BBVI problems without problem-specific tuning. We focus on quasi-Newton methods, which are well suited to problems with up to hundreds of latent variables. Our experiments show that SAA for VI simplifies the VI problem and achieves faster performance than existing methods.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

Stan is a probabilistic programming language that is popular in the statistics community, with a high-level syntax for expressing probabilistic models. Stan differs by nature from generative probabilistic programming languages like Church, Anglican, or Pyro. This paper presents a comprehensive compilation scheme to compile any Stan model to a generative language and proves its correctness. We use our compilation scheme to build two new backends for the Stanc3 compiler targeting Pyro and NumPyro. Experimental results show that the NumPyro backend yields a 2.3x speedup compared to Stan in geometric mean over 26 benchmarks. Building on Pyro we extend Stan with support for explicit variational inference guides and deep probabilistic models. That way, users familiar with Stan get access to new features without having to learn a fundamentally new language.

In representation learning, capturing correlations between the represented elements is paramount. A recent line of work introduces the notion of learning region-based representations, with the objective of being able to better capture these correlations as set interactions. Box models use regions which are products of intervals on $[0,1]$ (i.e., "boxes"), representing joint probability distributions via Lebesgue measure. To mitigate issues with training, a recent work models the endpoints of these intervals using Gumbel distributions, chosen due to their min/max-stability. In this work we analyze min/max-stability on a bounded domain and provide a specific family of such distributions which, replacing Gumbel, allow for stochastic boxes embedded in a finite measure space. This allows for a latent noise model which is a probability measure. Furthermore, we demonstrate an equivalence between this region-based representation and a density representation, where intersection is given by products of densities. We compare our model to previous region-based probability models, and demonstrate it is capable of being trained effectively to modeling correlations.

Programming languages allow us to express complex predicates, but existing inference methods are unable to condition probabilistic models on most of them. To support a broader class of predicates, we develop an inference procedure called predicate exchange, which softens predicates. A soft predicate quantifies the extent to which values of model variables are consistent with its hard counterpart. We substitute the likelihood term in the Bayesian posterior with a soft predicate, and develop a variant of replica exchange MCMC to draw posterior samples. We implement predicate exchange as a language agnostic tool which performs a nonstandard execution of a probabilistic program. We demonstrate the approach on sequence models of health and inverse rendering.

In dynamic object-oriented languages, low-level mechanisms such as just-in-time compilation, object allocation, garbage collection (GC) and method dispatch are often handled by virtual machines (VMs). VMs are typically implemented using static languages, allowing only few changes at run time. In such systems, the VM is not part of the language and interfaces to memory management or method dispatch are fixed, not allowing for arbitrary adaptation. Furthermore, the implementation can typically not be inspected or debugged with standard tools used to work on application code.

Mobile phone usage provides a wealth of information, which can be used to better understand the demographic structure of a population. In this paper we focus on the population of Mexican mobile phone users. Our first contribution is an observational study of mobile phone usage according to gender and age groups. We were able to detect significant differences in phone usage among different subgroups of the population. Our second contribution is to provide a novel methodology to predict demographic features (namely age and gender) of unlabeled users by leveraging individual calling patterns, as well as the structure of the communication graph. We provide details of the methodology and show experimental results on a real world dataset that involves millions of users.