Video streaming is the most important mobile application today. To improve users’ quality of experience (QoE), the client player runs adaptive bitrate (ABR) algorithms that dynamically select the bitrate for video chunks based on throughput or delivery time predictions. This paper aims to design an accurate predictor for mobile adaptive streaming by investigating all its components, including input features, output target, and mapping function. We construct the first theoretical framework that reveals potential factors affecting chunk throughput and delivery time. To verify this framework, we provide formulation analysis and measurement observations based on 2500+ video sessions collected in real-world mobile networks. We find that previous works have failed to achieve accurate prediction due to overlooking the impact of the transport mechanism and application behavior on throughput. Furthermore, we show that throughput is a better target for data-driven predictors than delivery time, due to the long-tailed distribution of delivery time. Based on the above, we propose Lumos, a decision-tree-based throughput predictor that can be integrated into various ABR algorithms. Extensive experiments in real-world mobile Internet show that Lumos achieves high prediction accuracy and improves the QoE of MPC by 6.3%, and MPC+Lumos outperforms Pensieve by 19.2%.

ABR algorithms dynamically select the bitrate of chunks based on the network capacity. To estimate the network capacity, most ABR algorithms use throughput prediction while recent works start to leverage delivery time prediction. We in this paper examine all components of the predictor for ABR algorithms, i.e., input features, mapping function and output target. We build an automated video streaming measurement platform, and collect extensive dataset under various network environments, containing 2500+ video sessions. Through analysis, we find that most of previous works failed to achieve accurate prediction due to ignoring how application behavior influences application throughput, e.g., the strong correlation between chunk size and throughput. Then we identify underlying factors affecting this correlation, and consider them as features for more accurate prediction. Moreover, we show that throughput is a better target for data-driven predictors than delivery time in terms of prediction error, due to the long tail distribution of delivery time. Based on those above, we propose a decision-tree-based throughput predictor, named Lumos, which acts as a plug-in for ABR algorithms. Extensive experiments in real-world Internet demonstrate that Lumos achieves high prediction accuracy and improves the QoE of ABR algorithms when integrated into them.