Randomized experiments, or “A/B” tests, remain the gold standard for evaluating the causal effect of a policy intervention or product change. However, experimental settings, such as social networks, where users are interacting and influencing one another, may violate conventional assumptions of no interference for credible causal inference. Existing solutions to the network setting include accounting for the fraction or count of treated neighbors in a user’s network, yet most current methods do not account for the local network structure beyond simply counting the number of neighbors. Our study provides an approach that accounts for both the local structure in a user’s social network via motifs as well as the treatment assignment conditions of neighbors. We propose a two-part approach. We first introduce and employ “causal network motifs”, which are network motifs that characterize the assignment conditions in local ego networks; and then we propose a tree-based algorithm for identifying different network interference conditions and estimating their average potential outcomes. Our approach can account for social network theories, such as structural diversity and echo chambers, and also can help specify network interference conditions that are suitable to each experiment. We test our method on a synthetic network setting and on a real-world experiment on a large-scale network, which highlight how accounting for local structures can better account for different interference patterns in networks.

People assume different and important roles within social networks. Some roles have received extensive study: that of influencers who are well-connected, and that of brokers who bridge unconnected parts of the network. However, very little work has explored another potentially important role, that of creating opportunities for people to interact and facilitating conversation between them. These individuals bring people together and act as social catalysts. In this paper, we test for the presence of social catalysts on the online social network Facebook. We first identify posts that have spurred conversations between the poster's friends and summarize the characteristics of such posts. We then aggregate the number of catalyzed comments at the poster level, as a measure of the individual's "catalystness." The top 1% of such individuals account for 31% of catalyzed interactions, although their network characteristics do not differ markedly from others who post as frequently and have a similar number of friends. By collecting survey data, we also validate the behavioral measure of catalystness: a person is more likely to be nominated as a social catalyst by their friends if their posts prompt discussions between other people more frequently. The measure, along with other conversation-related features, is one of the most predictive of a person being nominated as a catalyst. Although influencers and brokers may have gotten more attention for their network positions, our findings provide converging evidence that another important role exists and is recognized in online social networks.

For an ensemble classifier that is composed of classifiers selected from a hypothesis set of classifiers, and that selects one of its constituent classifiers at random to use for each classification, we present ensemble error bounds consisting of the average of error bounds for the individual classifiers in the ensemble, a term that depends on the fraction of hypothesis classifiers selected for the ensemble, and a small constant term and multiplier. There is no penalty for using a richer hypothesis set, if the same fraction of the hypothesis classifiers are selected for the ensemble.

With mobile shopping surging in popularity, people are spending ever more money on digital purchases through their mobile devices and phones. However, few large-scale studies of mobile shopping exist. In this paper we analyze a large data set consisting of more than 776M digital purchases made on Apple mobile devices that include songs, apps, and in-app purchases. We find that 61% of all the spending is on in-app purchases and that the top 1% of users are responsible for 59% of all the spending. These big spenders are more likely to be male and older, and less likely to be from the US. We study how they adopt and abandon individual app, and find that, after an initial phase of increased daily spending, users gradually lose interest: the delay between their purchases increases and the spending decreases with a sharp drop toward the end. Finally, we model the in-app purchasing behavior in multiple steps: 1) we model the time between purchases; 2) we train a classifier to predict whether the user will make a purchase from a new app or continue purchasing from the existing app; and 3) based on the outcome of the previous step, we attempt to predict the exact app, new or existing, from which the next purchase will come. The results yield new insights into spending habits in the mobile digital marketplace.

Consumer spending accounts for a large fraction of economic footprint of modern countries. Increasingly, consumer activity is moving to the web, where digital receipts of online purchases provide valuable data sources detailing consumer behavior. We consider such data extracted from emails and combined with with consumers' demographic information, which we use to characterize, model, and predict purchasing behavior. We analyze such behavior of consumers in different age and gender groups, and find interesting, actionable patterns that can be used to improve ad targeting systems. For example, we found that the amount of money spent on online purchases grows sharply with age, peaking in the late 30s, while shoppers from wealthy areas tend to purchase more expensive items and buy them more frequently. Furthermore, we look at the influence of social connections on purchasing habits, as well as at the temporal dynamics of online shopping where we discovered daily and weekly behavioral patterns. Finally, we build a model to predict when shoppers are most likely to make a purchase and how much will they spend, showing improvement over baseline approaches. The presented results paint a clear picture of a modern online shopper, and allow better understanding of consumer behavior that can help improve marketing efforts and make shopping more pleasant and efficient experience for online customers.

Email is a ubiquitous communications tool in the workplace and plays an important role in social interactions. Previous studies of email were largely based on surveys and limited to relatively small populations of email users within organizations. In this paper, we report results of a large-scale study of more than 2 million users exchanging 16 billion emails over several months. We quantitatively characterize the replying behavior in conversations within pairs of users. In particular, we study the time it takes the user to reply to a received message and the length of the reply sent. We consider a variety of factors that affect the reply time and length, such as the stage of the conversation, user demographics, and use of portable devices. In addition, we study how increasing load affects emailing behavior. We find that as users receive more email messages in a day, they reply to a smaller fraction of them, using shorter replies. However, their responsiveness remains intact, and they may even reply to emails faster. Finally, we predict the time to reply, length of reply, and whether the reply ends a conversation. We demonstrate considerable improvement over the baseline in all three prediction tasks, showing the significant role that the factors that we uncover play, in determining replying behavior. We rank these factors based on their predictive power. Our findings have important implications for understanding human behavior and designing better email management applications for tasks like ranking unread emails.

The way in which social conventions emerge in communities has been of interest to social scientists for decades. Here we report on the emergence of a particular social convention on Twitter---the way to indicate a tweet is being reposted and attributing the content to its source. Despite being invented at different times and having different adoption rates, only two variations became widely adopted. In this paper we describe this process in detail, highlighting the factors that come into play in deciding which variation individuals will adopt. Our classification analysis demonstrates that the date of adoption and the number of exposures are particularly important in the adoption process, while personal features (such as the number of followers and join date) and the number of adopter friends have less discriminative power in predicting adoptions. We discuss implications of these findings in the design of future Web applications and services.

Recently, Twitter has emerged as a popular platform for discovering real-time information on the Web, such as news stories and people's reaction to them. Like the Web, Twitter has become a target for link farming, where users, especially spammers, try to acquire large numbers of follower links in the social network. Acquiring followers not only increases the size of a user's direct audience, but also contributes to the perceived influence of the user, which in turn impacts the ranking of the user's tweets by search engines.