Display advertising has been a significant source of revenue for publishers and ad networks in online advertising ecosystem. One important business model in online display advertising is Ad Exchange marketplace, also called non-guaranteed delivery (NGD), in which advertisers buy targeted page views and audiences on a spot market through real-time auction. In this paper, we describe a bid landscape forecasting system in NGD marketplace for any advertiser campaign specified by a variety of targeting attributes. In the system, the impressions that satisfy the campaign targeting attributes are partitioned into multiple mutually exclusive samples. Each sample is one unique combination of quantified attribute values. We develop a divide-and-conquer approach that breaks down the campaign-level forecasting problem. First, utilizing a novel star-tree data structure, we forecast the bid for each sample using non-linear regression by gradient boosting decision trees. Then we employ a mixture-of-log-normal model to generate campaign-level bid distribution based on the sample-level forecasted distributions. The experiment results of a system developed with our approach show that it can accurately forecast the bid distributions for various campaigns running on the world's largest NGD advertising exchange system, outperforming two baseline methods in term of forecasting errors.

This paper is concerned with the problem of learning a model to rank objects (Web pages, ads and etc.). We propose a framework where the ranking model is both optimized and evaluated using the same information retrieval measures such as Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) and Mean Average Precision (MAP). The main difficulty in direct optimization of NDCG and MAP is that these measures depend on the rank of objects and are not differentiable. Most learning-to-rank methods that attempt to optimize NDCG or MAP approximate such measures so that they can be differentiable. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective stochastic optimization algorithm to directly minimize any loss function, which can be defined on NDCG or MAP for the learning-to-rank problem. The algorithm employs Simulated Annealing along with Simplex method for its parameter search and finds the global optimal parameters. Experiment results using NDCG-Annealing algorithm, an instance of the proposed algorithm, on LETOR benchmark data sets show that the proposed algorithm is both effective and stable when compared to the baselines provided in LETOR 3.0. In addition, we applied the algorithm for ranking ads in contextual advertising. Our method has shown to significantly improve relevance in offline evaluation and business metrics in online tests in a real large-scale advertising serving system. To scale our computations, we parallelize the algorithm in a MapReduce framework running on Hadoop.

The dynamic marketplace in online advertising calls for ranking systems that are optimized to consistently promote and capitalize better performing ads. The streaming nature of online data inevitably makes an advertising system choose between maximizing its expected revenue according to its current knowledge in short term (exploitation) and trying to learn more about the unknown to improve its knowledge (exploration), since the latter might increase its revenue in the future. The exploitation and exploration (EE) tradeoff has been extensively studied in the reinforcement learning community, however, not been paid much attention in online advertising until recently. In this paper, we develop two novel EE strategies for online advertising. Specifically, our methods can adaptively balance the two aspects of EE by automatically learning the optimal tradeoff and incorporating confidence metrics of historical performance. Within a deliberately designed offline simulation framework we apply our algorithms to an industry leading performance based contextual advertising system and conduct extensive evaluations with real online event log data. The experimental results and detailed analysis reveal several important findings of EE behaviors in online advertising and demonstrate that our algorithms perform superiorly in terms of ad reach and click-through-rate (CTR).

The four-level pachinko allocation model (PAM) (Li & McCallum, 2006) represents correlations among topics using a DAG structure. It does not, however, represent a nested hierarchy of topics, with some topical word distributions representing the vocabulary that is shared among several more specific topics. This paper presents hierarchical PAM---an enhancement that explicitly represents a topic hierarchy. This model can be seen as combining the advantages of hLDA's topical hierarchy representation with PAM's ability to mix multiple leaves of the topic hierarchy. Experimental results show improvements in likelihood of held-out documents, as well as mutual information between automatically-discovered topics and humangenerated categories such as journals.

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and other related topic models are increasingly popular tools for summarization and manifold discovery in discrete data. However, LDA does not capture correlations between topics. In this paper, we introduce the pachinko allocation model (PAM), which captures arbitrary, nested, and possibly sparse correlations between topics using a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The leaves of the DAG represent individual words in the vocabulary, while each interior node represents a correlation among its children, which may be words or other interior nodes (topics). PAM provides a flexible alternative to recent work by Blei and Lafferty (2006), which captures correlations only between pairs of topics. Using text data from newsgroups, historic NIPS proceedings and other research paper corpora, we show improved performance of PAM in document classification, likelihood of held-out data, the ability to support finer-grained topics, and topical keyword coherence.

This paper describes our application of conditional random fields with feature induction to a Hindi named entity recognition task. With only five days development time and little knowledge of this language, we automatically discover relevant features by providing a large array of lexical tests and using feature induction to automatically construct the features that most increase conditional likelihood. In an effort to reduce overfitting, we use a combination of a Gaussian prior and early stopping based on the results of 10-fold cross validation.