OBJECTIVE: The early stages of chronic disease typically progress slowly, so symptoms are usually only noticed until the disease is advanced. Slow progression and heterogeneous manifestations make it challenging to model the transition from normal to disease status. As patient conditions are only observed at discrete timestamps with varying intervals, an incomplete understanding of disease progression and heterogeneity affects clinical practice and drug development. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed the Gaussian Process for Stage Inference (GPSI) approach to uncover chronic disease progression patterns and assess the dynamic contribution of clinical features. We tested the ability of the GPSI to reliably stratify synthetic and real-world data for osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), bipolar disorder (BP) in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the UTHealth and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). RESULTS: First, GPSI identified two subgroups of OA based on image features, where these subgroups corresponded to different genotypes, indicating the bone-remodeling and overweight-related pathways. Second, GPSI differentiated BP into two distinct developmental patterns and defined the contribution of specific brain region atrophy from early to advanced disease stages, demonstrating the ability of the GPSI to identify diagnostic subgroups. Third, HCC progression patterns were well reproduced in the two independent UTHealth and TCGA datasets. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated that an unsupervised approach can disentangle temporal and phenotypic heterogeneity and identify population subgroups with common patterns of disease progression. Based on the differences in these features across stages, physicians can better tailor treatment plans and medications to individual patients.

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is a deadly tumor with dynamic evolutionary process. Although much endeavors have been made in identifying the temporal patterns of cancer progression, it remains challenging to infer and interpret the molecular alterations associated with cancer development and progression. To this end, we developed a computational approach to infer the progression trajectory based on cross-sectional transcriptomic data. Analysis of the LUAD data using our approach revealed a linear trajectory with three different branches for malignant progression, and the results showed consistency in three independent cohorts. We used the progression model to elucidate the potential molecular events in LUAD progression. Further analysis showed that overexpression of BUB1B, BUB1 and BUB3 promoted tumor cell proliferation and metastases by disturbing the spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC) in the mitosis. Aberrant mitotic spindle checkpoint signaling appeared to be one of the key factors promoting LUAD progression. We found the inferred cancer trajectory allows to identify LUAD susceptibility genetic variations using genome-wide association analysis. This result shows the opportunity for combining analysis of candidate genetic factors with disease progression. Furthermore, the trajectory showed clear evident mutation accumulation and clonal expansion along with the LUAD progression. Understanding how tumors evolve and identifying mutated genes will help guide cancer management. We investigated the clonal architectures and identified distinct clones and subclones in different LUAD branches. Validation of the model in multiple independent data sets and correlation analysis with clinical results demonstrate that our method is effective and unbiased.

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in American men. Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has become a standard treatment strategy for advanced PCa. Although a majority of patients initially respond to ADT well, most of them will eventually develop castration-resistant PCa (CRPC). Previous studies suggest that ADT-induced changes in the immune microenvironment (mE) in PCa might be responsible for the failures of various therapies. However, the role of the immune system in CRPC development remains unclear. To systematically understand the immunity leading to CRPC progression and predict the optimal treatment strategy in silico, we developed a 3D Hybrid Multi-scale Model (HMSM), consisting of an ODE system and an agent-based model (ABM), to manipulate the tumor growth in a defined immune system. Based on our analysis, we revealed that the key factors (e.g. WNT5A, TRAIL, CSF1, etc.) mediated the activation of PC-Treg and PC-TAM interaction pathways, which induced the immunosuppression during CRPC progression. Our HMSM model also provided an optimal therapeutic strategy for improving the outcomes of PCa treatment.

MOTIVATION: Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been implicated in the regulation of diverse biological functions. The number of newly identified lncRNAs has increased dramatically in recent years but their expression and function have not yet been described from most diseases. To elucidate lncRNA function in human disease, we have developed a novel network based method (NLCFA) integrating correlations between lncRNA, protein coding genes and noncoding miRNAs. We have also integrated target gene associations and protein-protein interactions and designed our model to provide information on the combined influence of mRNAs, lncRNAs and miRNAs on cellular signal transduction networks. RESULTS: We have generated lncRNA expression profiles from the CD34+ haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) from patients with Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and healthy donors. We report, for the first time, aberrantly expressed lncRNAs in MDS and further prioritize biologically relevant lncRNAs using the NLCFA. Taken together, our data suggests that aberrant levels of specific lncRNAs are intimately involved in network modules that control multiple cancer-associated signalling pathways and cellular processes. Importantly, our method can be applied to prioritize aberrantly expressed lncRNAs for functional validation in other diseases and biological contexts. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The method is implemented in R language and Matlab. CONTACT: [email protected]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.