Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained by sparse sensor networks, where only a limited subset of locations may have sensors due to budget constraints. To approach this challenge, we present Diff-Sparse, a masked conditional diffusion model designed for probabilistic coastal inundation forecasting from sparse sensor observations. Diff-Sparse primarily utilizes the inundation history of a location and its neighboring locations from a context time window as spatiotemporal context. The fundamental challenge of spatiotemporal prediction based on sparse observations in the context window is addressed by introducing a novel masking strategy during training. Digital elevation data and temporal co-variates are utilized as additional spatial and temporal contexts, respectively. A convolutional neural network and a conditional UNet architecture with cross-attention mechanism are employed to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics in the data. We trained and tested Diff-Sparse on coastal inundation data from the Eastern Shore of Virginia and systematically assessed the performance of Diff-Sparse across different sparsity levels (0%, 50%, 95% missing observations). Our experiment results show that Diff-Sparse achieves upto 62% improvement in terms of two forecasting performance metrics compared to existing methods, at 95% sparsity level. Moreover, our ablation studies reveal that digital elevation data becomes more useful at high sparsity levels compared to temporal co-variates.

Preventing the spread of infectious diseases requires implementing interventions at various levels of government and evaluating the potential impact and efficacy of those preemptive measures. Agent-based modeling can be used for detailed studies of the spread of such diseases in the presence of possible interventions. The computational cost of modeling epidemic diffusion through large social contact networks necessitates the use of parallel algorithms and resources in order to achieve quick turnaround times. In this work, we present Loimos, a scalable parallel framework for simulating epidemic diffusion. Loimos uses a hybrid of time-stepping and discrete event simulation to model disease spread, and is implemented on top of Charm++, an asynchronous, many-task runtime that enables over-decomposition and adaptive overlap of computation and communication. We demonstrate that Loimos is able to achieve significant speedups while scaling to large core counts. In particular, Loimos is able to simulate 200 days of a COVID19 outbreak on a digital twin of California in about 42 seconds, for an average of 4.6 billion traversed edges per second (TEPS), using 4096 cores on Perlmutter at NERSC.

We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Using a realistic representation of a social contact network for the Commonwealth of Virginia, we study how a limited number of vaccine doses can be strategically distributed to individuals to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic. We show that allocation of vaccines based on individuals' degree (number of social contacts) and total social proximity time is significantly more effective than the usually used age-based allocation strategy in reducing the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The overall strategy is robust even: (i) if the social contacts are not estimated correctly; (ii) if the vaccine efficacy is lower than expected or only a single dose is given; (iii) if there is a delay in vaccine production and deployment; and (iv) whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions continue as vaccines are deployed. For reasons of implementability, we have used degree, which is a simple structural measure and can be easily estimated using several methods, including the digital technology available today. These results are significant, especially for resource-poor countries, where vaccines are less available, have lower efficacy, and are more slowly distributed.

We study the role of vaccine acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US using AI-driven agent-based models. Our study uses a 288 million node social contact network spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12.59 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based models use realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Developing a national model at this resolution that is driven by realistic data requires a complex scalable workflow, model calibration, simulation, and analytics components. Our workflow optimizes the total execution time and helps in improving overall human productivity.This work develops a pipeline that can execute US-scale models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. Our results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K nationwide. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. Improving vaccine acceptance by 10% in all states increases averted infections from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total deaths from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% increase) nationwide. The analysis also reveals interesting spatio-temporal differences in COVID-19 dynamics as a result of vaccine acceptance. To our knowledge, this is the first national-scale analysis of the effect of vaccine acceptance on the spread of COVID-19, using detailed and realistic agent-based models.

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem. In this work, we present scalable high performance computing-enabled workflows for COVID-19 pandemic planning and response. The scalability of our methodology allows us to run fine-grained simulations daily, and to generate county-level forecasts and other counterfactual analysis for each of the 50 states (and DC), 3140 counties across the USA. Our workflows use a hybrid cloud/cluster system utilizing a combination of local and remote cluster computing facilities, and using over 20,000 CPU cores running for 6-9 hours every day to meet this objective. Our state (Virginia), state hospital network, our university, the DOD and the CDC use our models to guide their COVID-19 planning and response efforts. We began executing these pipelines March 25, 2020, and have delivered and briefed weekly updates to these stakeholders for over 30 weeks without interruption.

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a novel virus of the family Coronaviridae. The virus causes the infectious disease COVID-19. The biology of coronaviruses has been studied for many years. However, bioinformatics tools designed explicitly for SARS-CoV-2 have only recently been developed as a rapid reaction to the need for fast detection, understanding and treatment of COVID-19. To control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is of utmost importance to get insight into the evolution and pathogenesis of the virus. In this review, we cover bioinformatics workflows and tools for the routine detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the reliable analysis of sequencing data, the tracking of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluation of containment measures, the study of coronavirus evolution, the discovery of potential drug targets and development of therapeutic strategies. For each tool, we briefly describe its use case and how it advances research specifically for SARS-CoV-2. All tools are free to use and available online, either through web applications or public code repositories. Contact:[email protected].

BACKGROUND: At the molecular level, nonlinear networks of heterogeneous molecules control many biological processes, so that systems biology provides a valuable approach in this field, building on the integration of experimental biology with mathematical modeling. One of the biggest challenges to making this integration a reality is that many life scientists do not possess the mathematical expertise needed to build and manipulate mathematical models well enough to use them as tools for hypothesis generation. Available modeling software packages often assume some modeling expertise. There is a need for software tools that are easy to use and intuitive for experimentalists. RESULTS: This paper introduces PlantSimLab, a web-based application developed to allow plant biologists to construct dynamic mathematical models of molecular networks, interrogate them in a manner similar to what is done in the laboratory, and use them as a tool for biological hypothesis generation. It is designed to be used by experimentalists, without direct assistance from mathematical modelers. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical modeling techniques are a useful tool for analyzing complex biological systems, and there is a need for accessible, efficient analysis tools within the biological community. PlantSimLab enables users to build, validate, and use intuitive qualitative dynamic computer models, with a graphical user interface that does not require mathematical modeling expertise. It makes analysis of complex models accessible to a larger community, as it is platform-independent and does not require extensive mathematical expertise.

Computational modeling tools have increasingly important roles in our understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide experimental and clinical efforts in an unprecedented rate. This study presents ENteric Immunity Simulator - multiscale modeling (MSM) platform developed for high performance computing (HPC). ENISI MSMv2 is designed for modeling mucosal immune responses. The system scales to 109 agents in HPC simulations. This is an important step towards building large scale information processing representations of immune responses that integrate multiple modeling technologies and spatiotemporal scales ranging from nanoseconds to years and from molecules to systems. Our HPC-driven ENISI MSM platform combines the study of molecular pathways controlling T cell differentiation and tissue level interactions between cells to characterize novel mechanisms of immunoregulation at the gut mucosa.

BACKGROUND: Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. IMPLEMENTATION: Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. CONCLUSION: We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut inflammation. Our modeling predictions dissect the mechanisms by which effector CD4+ T cell responses contribute to tissue damage in the gut mucosa following immune dysregulation.Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM.

Modeling and simulations approaches have been widely used in computational biology, mathematics, bioinformatics and engineering to represent complex existing knowledge and to effectively generate novel hypotheses. While deterministic modeling strategies are widely used in computational biology, stochastic modeling techniques are not as popular due to a lack of user-friendly tools. This paper presents ENISI SDE, a novel web-based modeling tool with stochastic differential equations. ENISI SDE provides user-friendly web user interfaces to facilitate adoption by immunologists and computational biologists. This work provides three major contributions: (1) discussion of SDE as a generic approach for stochastic modeling in computational biology; (2) development of ENISI SDE, a web-based user-friendly SDE modeling tool that highly resembles regular ODE-based modeling; (3) applying ENISI SDE modeling tool through a use case for studying stochastic sources of cell heterogeneity in the context of CD4+ T cell differentiation. The CD4+ T cell differential ODE model has been published [8] and can be downloaded from biomodels.net. The case study reproduces a biological phenomenon that is not captured by the previously published ODE model and shows the effectiveness of SDE as a stochastic modeling approach in biology in general and immunology in particular and the power of ENISI SDE.

Biological systems span several orders of magnitude in space and time from intracellular pathways to tissue-level processes. Many studies focus on molecular level events while other studies focus on cellular level and tissue level interactions. The immune system is highly complex and dynamic, encompassing hierarchical interactions with dimensions ranging from nanometers to meters and time scales from nanoseconds to years. To comprehensively model immunological processes computationally, multi-scale models are needed. However, the lack of multi-scale modeling tools can be a deterrent to advance the understanding of the immune system across scales. In this paper, we developed an object-oriented multi-scale modeling (MSM) platform, ENISI MSM, that integrates agent-based modeling (ABM), ordinary-differential equations (ODE), and partial differential equations (PDE) models. To our best knowledge, this is the first such multi-scale modeling platform that is capable of integrating ODE, PDE, and ABM models together. The tool is developed in Java and is object-oriented. For example, the agents are objects and the ODE and PDE solvers are also objects. ENISI MSM also provides user-friendly interfaces and visualizations. We developed a multi-scale CD4+ T cell differentiation model in the context of gut inflammatory and showed the effectiveness of ENISI MSM.

Differentiation of CD4+ T cells into effector or regulatory phenotypes is tightly controlled by the cytokine milieu, complex intracellular signaling networks and numerous transcriptional regulators. We combined experimental approaches and computational modeling to investigate the mechanisms controlling differentiation and plasticity of CD4+ T cells in the gut of mice. Our computational model encompasses the major intracellular pathways involved in CD4+ T cell differentiation into T helper 1 (Th1), Th2, Th17 and induced regulatory T cells (iTreg). Our modeling efforts predicted a critical role for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) in modulating plasticity between Th17 and iTreg cells. PPARγ regulates differentiation, activation and cytokine production, thereby controlling the induction of effector and regulatory responses, and is a promising therapeutic target for dysregulated immune responses and inflammation. Our modeling efforts predict that following PPARγ activation, Th17 cells undergo phenotype switch and become iTreg cells. This prediction was validated by results of adoptive transfer studies showing an increase of colonic iTreg and a decrease of Th17 cells in the gut mucosa of mice with colitis following pharmacological activation of PPARγ. Deletion of PPARγ in CD4+ T cells impaired mucosal iTreg and enhanced colitogenic Th17 responses in mice with CD4+ T cell-induced colitis. Thus, for the first time we provide novel molecular evidence in vivo demonstrating that PPARγ in addition to regulating CD4+ T cell differentiation also plays a major role controlling Th17 and iTreg plasticity in the gut mucosa.

This paper presents ENISI Visual, an agent-based simulator for modeling gut immunity to enteric pathogens. Gastrointestinal systems are important for in-taking food and other nutritions and gut immunity is an important part of human immune system. ENISI Visual provides quality visualizations and users can control initial cell concentrations and the simulation speed, take snapshots, and record videos. The cells are represented with different icons and the icons change colors as their states change. Users can observe real-time immune responses, including cell recruitment, cytokine and chemokine secretion and dissipation, random or chemotactic movement, cell-cell interactions, and state changes. The case study clearly shows that users can use ENISI Visual to develop models and run novel and insightful in silico experiments.

Here we present the ENteric Immunity Simulator (ENISI), a modeling system for the inflammatory and regulatory immune pathways triggered by microbe-immune cell interactions in the gut. With ENISI, immunologists and infectious disease experts can test and generate hypotheses for enteric disease pathology and propose interventions through experimental infection of an in silico gut. ENISI is an agent based simulator, in which individual cells move through the simulated tissues, and engage in context-dependent interactions with the other cells with which they are in contact. The scale of ENISI is unprecedented in this domain, with the ability to simulate $10^7$ cells for 250 simulated days on 576 cores in one and a half hours, with the potential to scale to even larger hardware and problem sizes. In this paper we describe the ENISI simulator for modeling mucosal immune responses to gastrointestinal pathogens. We then demonstrate the utility of ENISI by recreating an experimental infection of a mouse with Helicobacter pylori 26695. The results identify specific processes by which bacterial virulence factors do and do not contribute to pathogenesis associated with H. pylori strain 26695. These modeling results inform general intervention strategies by indicating immunomodulatory mechanisms such as those used in inflammatory bowel disease may be more appropriate therapeutically than directly targeting specific microbial populations through vaccination or by using antimicrobials.

This FAIRsharing record describes: The MIASE Guidelines, initiated by the BioModels.net effort, are a community effort to identify the Minimal Information About a Simulation Experiment, necessary to enable the reproducible simulation experiments. Consequently, the MIASE Guidelines list the information that a modeller needs to provide to enable the execution and reproduction of a numerical simulation experiment, derived from a given set of quantitative models. MIASE is a set of guidelines suitable for use with any structured format for simulation experiments. As such, MIASE is designed to help modelers and software tools to exchange their simulation settings and to foster collaboration.

MOTIVATION: Simulation and modeling is becoming a standard approach to understand complex biochemical processes. Therefore, there is a big need for software tools that allow access to diverse simulation and modeling methods as well as support for the usage of these methods. RESULTS: Here, we present COPASI, a platform-independent and user-friendly biochemical simulator that offers several unique features. We discuss numerical issues with these features; in particular, the criteria to switch between stochastic and deterministic simulation methods, hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods, and the importance of random number generator numerical resolution in stochastic simulation. AVAILABILITY: The complete software is available in binary (executable) for MS Windows, OS X, Linux (Intel) and Sun Solaris (SPARC), as well as the full source code under an open source license from http://www.copasi.org.