Epidemiologists and social scientists have used the Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM) for over thirty years to estimate the size of a hidden sub-population within a social network. This method involves querying a subset of network nodes about the number of their neighbors belonging to the hidden sub-population. In general, NSUM assumes that the social network topology and the hidden sub-population distribution are well-behaved; hence, the NSUM estimate is close to the actual value. However, bounds on NSUM estimation errors have not been analytically proven. This paper provides analytical bounds on the error incurred by the two most popular NSUM estimators. These bounds assume that the queried nodes accurately provide their degree and the number of neighbors belonging to the hidden sub-population. Our key findings are twofold. First, we show that when an adversary designs the network and places the hidden sub-population, then the estimate can be a factor of Ω(√n) off from the real value (in a network with n nodes). Second, we also prove error bounds when the underlying network is randomly generated, showing that a small constant factor can be achieved with high probability using samples of logarithmic size O(log n). We present improved analytical bounds for Erdős-Rényi and Scale-Free networks. Our theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive set of numerical experiments designed to determine the effect of the sample size on the accuracy of the estimates in both synthetic and real networks.

Interpretability of neural networks (NNs) and their underlying theoretical behavior remain an open field of study even after the great success of their practical applications, particularly with the emergence of deep learning. In this work, NN2Poly is proposed: a theoretical approach to obtain an explicit polynomial model that provides an accurate representation of an already trained fully connected feed-forward artificial NN [a multilayer perceptron (MLP)]. This approach extends a previous idea proposed in the literature, which was limited to single hidden layer networks, to work with arbitrarily deep MLPs in both regression and classification tasks. NN2Poly uses a Taylor expansion on the activation function, at each layer, and then applies several combinatorial properties to calculate the coefficients of the desired polynomials. Discussion is presented on the main computational challenges of this method, and the way to overcome them by imposing certain constraints during the training phase. Finally, simulation experiments as well as applications to real tabular datasets are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Indirect surveys, in which respondents provide information about other people they know, have been proposed for estimating (nowcasting) the size of a hidden population where privacy is important or the hidden population is hard to reach. Examples include estimating casualties in an earthquake, conditions among female sex workers, and the prevalence of drug use and infectious diseases. The Network Scale-up Method (NSUM) is the classical approach to developing estimates from indirect surveys, but it was designed for one-shot surveys. Further, it requires certain assumptions and asking for or estimating the number of individuals in each respondent's network. In recent years, surveys have been increasingly deployed online and can collect data continuously (e.g., COVID-19 surveys on Facebook during much of the pandemic). Conventional NSUM can be applied to these scenarios by analyzing the data independently at each point in time, but this misses the opportunity of leveraging the temporal dimension. We propose to use the responses from indirect surveys collected over time and develop analytical tools (i) to prove that indirect surveys can provide better estimates for the trends of the hidden population over time, as compared to direct surveys and (ii) to identify appropriate temporal aggregations to improve the estimates. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that our approach outperforms traditional NSUM and direct surveying methods. We also empirically demonstrate the superiority of our approach on a real indirect survey dataset of COVID-19 cases.

In this paper, comparisons of allocation policies of components in two-parallel-series systems with two types of components are provided with respect to both hazard rate and reversed hazard rate orders. The main results indicate that the lifetime of these kinds of system is stochastically maximized by unbalancing the two classes of components as much as possible. We only assume that the two distributions implied in the model have proportional hazard rates. The same type of comparisons are also given for the dual model, the two-series-parallel systems, but assuming that the distributions implied in the model have proportional reversed hazard rates, and therefore the final conclusion is the opposite; that is, the reliability of the system improves as the similarity between the two parallel subsystems increases.

In this paper, we describe statistical inference and prediction for software reliability models in the presence of covariate information. Specifically, we develop a semiparametric, Bayesian model using Gaussian processes to estimate the numbers of software failures over various time periods when it is assumed that the software is changed after each time period and that software metrics information is available after each update. Model comparison is also carried out using the deviance information criterion, and predictive inferences on future failures are shown. Real-life examples are presented to illustrate the approach.