Both the marginal contributions needed for the computation of Shapley values and the graph produced by Pearl-Verma theorem rely on the choice of an ordering of the variables. For Shapley values, the marginal contributions are averaged over all orderings, while in causal inference methods, the typical approach is to select orderings producing a graph with a minimal number of edges. We reconcile both approaches by reinterpreting them from a maximum entropy perspective. Namely, Shapley values assume no prior knowledge about the orderings and treat them as equally likely, while causal inference approaches apply Occam’s razor and consider only orderings producing the simplest explanatory graphs. We find that the blind application of Occam’s razor to Shapley values does not produce fully satisfactory explanations. Hence, we propose two variations of Shapley values based on entropy maximization to appropriately incorporate prior information about the model. Hence, we propose a variation of Shapley values based on entropy maximization to appropriately incorporate prior information about the model.

Ancestral graphs are a prevalent mathematical tool to take into account latent (hidden) variables in a probabilistic graphical model. In ancestral graph representations, the nodes are only the observed (manifest) variables and the notion of m-separation fully characterizes the conditional independence relations among such variables, bypassing the need to explicitly consider latent variables. However, ancestral graph models do not necessarily represent the actual causal structure of the model, and do not contain information about, for example, the precise number and location of the hidden variables. Being able to detect the presence of latent variables while also inferring their precise location within the actual causal structure model is a more challenging task that provides more information about the actual causal relationships among all the model variables, including the latent ones. In this article, we develop an algorithm to exactly recover graphical models of random variables with underlying polytree structures when the latent nodes satisfy specific degree conditions. Therefore, this article proposes an approach for the full identification of hidden variables in a polytree. We also show that the algorithm is complete in the sense that when such degree conditions are not met, there exists another polytree with fewer number of latent nodes satisfying the degree conditions and entailing the same independence relations among the observed variables, making it indistinguishable from the actual polytree.

Intracellular transport is an essential function in eucaryotic cells, facilitated by motor proteins-proteins converting chemical energy into kinetic energy. It is understood that motor proteins work in teams enabling unidirectional and bidirectional transport of intracellular cargo over long distances. Disruptions of the underlying transport mechanisms, often caused by mutations that alter single motor characteristics, are known to cause neurodegenerative diseases. For example, phosphorylation of kinesin motor domain at the serine residue is implicated in Huntington's disease, with a recent study of phosphorylated and phosphomimetic serine residues indicating lowered single motor stalling forces. In this article we report the effects of mutations of this nature on transport properties of cargo carried by multiple wild-type and mutant motors. Results indicate that mutants with altered stall forces might determine the average velocity and run-length even when they are outnumbered by wild type motors in the ensemble. It is shown that mutants gain a competitive advantage and lead to an increase in the expected run-length when the load on the cargo is in the vicinity of the mutant's stalling force or a multiple of its stalling force. A separate contribution of this article is the development of a semi-analytic method to analyze transport of cargo by multiple motors of multiple types. The technique determines transition rates between various relative configurations of motors carrying the cargo using the transition rates between various absolute configurations. This enables a computation of biologically relevant quantities like average velocity and run-length without resorting to Monte Carlo simulations. It can also be used to introduce alterations of various single motor parameters to model a mutation and to deduce effects of such alterations on the transport of a common cargo by multiple motors. Our method is easily implementable and we provide a software package for general use.