Cut-in maneuvers in high-speed traffic pose critical challenges that can lead to abrupt braking and collisions, necessitating safe and efficient lane change strategies. We propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework to integrate lateral evidence with safety assessment models, thereby predicting lane changes and ensuring safe cut-in maneuvers effectively. Our proposed framework comprises three key probabilistic hypotheses (lateral evidence, lateral safety, and longitudinal safety) that facilitate the decision-making process through dynamic data processing and assessments of vehicle positions, lateral velocities, relative distance, and Time-to-Collision (TTC) computations. The DBN model's performance compared with other conventional approaches demonstrates superior performance in crash reduction, especially in critical high-speed scenarios, while maintaining a competitive performance in low-speed scenarios. This paves the way for robust, scalable, and efficient safety validation in automated driving systems.

Fast arc-reversal (FAR) was recently proposed as a new exact inference algorithm in discrete Bayesian networks (BNs), merging favourable features of Arc-reversal (AR) and Variable elimination (VE). AR constantly maintains a sub-BN structure when rendering a variable barren via arc reversals, often requiring more computational effort than VE, which sacrifices a sub-BN structure by directly eliminating a variable. It was formally established that FAR can recover a unique and sound sub-BN structure after consecutive variable eliminations. Experimental results on real-world benchmark networks empirically show an improvement in the average run-time and variance of FAR compared to AR. A novel method, called d-contraction , was suggested for graphically understanding FAR since FAR is not always the same as a sequence of arc reversals. Here, we extend this work by formally establishing that AR's sub-DAG is necessarily contained within FAR's sub-DAG. Unfortunately, neither FAR nor AR can guarantee the construction of minimal I-maps, although both methods may subsequently recover minimal I-mapness. Finally, it is shown how FAR improves Sum-Product network interpretability by relaxing a restriction on the elimination ordering used.

Hybrid Bayesian networks have received an increasing attention during the last years. The difference with respect to standard Bayesian networks is that they can host discrete and continuous variables simultaneously, which extends the applicability of the Bayesian network framework in general. However, this extra feature also comes at a cost: inference in these types of models is computationally more challenging and the underlying models and updating procedures may not even support closed-form solutions. In this paper we provide an overview of the main trends and principled approaches for performing inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The methods covered in the paper are organized and discussed according to their methodological basis. We consider how the methods have been extended and adapted to also include (hybrid) dynamic Bayesian networks, and we end with an overview of established software systems supporting inference in these types of models.

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating, and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating distribution. In this paper, we approach these problems from a Bayesian perspective covering general conjugate exponential models. Our proposal makes use of non-conjugate hierarchical priors to explicitly model temporal changes of the model parameters. We also derive a novel variational inference scheme which overcomes the use of non-conjugate priors while maintaining the computational efficiency of variational methods over conjugate models. The approach is validated on three real data sets over three latent variable models.

This paper considers a parallel algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning from large data sets. The parallel algorithm is a variant of the well known PC algorithm. The PC algorithm is a constraint-based algorithm consisting of five steps where the first step is to perform a set of (conditional) independence tests while the remaining four steps relate to identifying the structure of the Bayesian network using the results of the (conditional) independence tests. In this paper, we describe a new approach to parallelization of the (conditional) independence testing as experiments illustrate that this is by far the most time consuming step. The proposed parallel PC algorithm is evaluated on data sets generated at random from five different real-world Bayesian networks. The algorithm is also compared empirically with a process-based approach where each process manages a subset of the data over all the variables on the Bayesian network. The results demonstrate that significant time performance improvements are possible using both approaches.

In this paper we propose a method for scaling up filter-based feature selection in classification problems. We use the conditional mutual information as filter measure and show how the required statistics can be computed in parallel avoiding unnecessary calculations. The distribution of the calculations between the available computing units is determined based on balanced incomplete block designs, a strategy first developed within the area of statistical design of experiments. We show the scalability of our method through a series of experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

This paper describes an innovative modular component-based modelling approach for diagnostics and condition-monitoring of manufacturing equipment. The approach is based on the use of object-oriented Bayesian networks, which supports a natural decomposition of a large and complex system into a set of less complex components. The methodology consists of six steps supporting the development process: Begin, Design, Implement, Test, Analyse, and Deploy. The process is iterative and the steps should be repeated until a satisfactory model has been achieved. The paper describes the details of the methodology as well as illustrates the use of the component-based modelling approach on a linear axis used in manufacturing. This application demonstrates the power and flexibility of the approach for diagnostics and condition-monitoring and shows a significant potential of the approach for modular component-based modelling in manufacturing and other domains.

We propose a reference architecture, SelSus (SELf-SUStaining Manufacturing Systems) that aims to enable the provisioning of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in manufacturing systems that utilize the notions of “smart” automation devices.

Improving the performance of belief updating becomes increasingly important as real-world Bayesian networks continue to grow larger and more complex. In this paper, an investigation is done on how variations over the message-computation algorithm of lazy propagation may impact its performance. Lazy propagation is a junction-tree-based inference algorithm for belief updating in Bayesian networks. Lazy propagation combines variable elimination (VE) with a Shenoy-Shafer message-passing scheme in an attempt to exploit the independence properties induced by evidence in a junction-tree-based algorithm. The authors investigate, the use of arc reversal (AR) and symbolic probabilistic inference (SPI) as alternative algorithms for computing clique-to-clique messages in lazy propagation. The paper presents the results of an empirical evaluation of the performance of lazy propagation using AR, SPI, and VE as the message-computation algorithm. The results of the empirical evaluation show that no single algorithm outperforms or is outperformed by the other two alternatives. In many cases, there is no significant difference in the performance of the three algorithms.

The widespread use of influence diagrams to represent and solve Bayesian decision problems is still limited by the inflexibility and rather restrictive semantics of influence diagrams. We propose a number of extensions and adjustments to the definition of influence diagrams in order to make the practical use of influence diagrams more flexible and less restrictive. In particular, we describe how deterministic relations can be exploited to increase the flexibility and efficiency of representing and solving Bayesian decision problems. The issues addressed in the paper were motivated by the construction of a decision support system for mission management of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).

The authors present a method for decomposition of Bayesian networks into their maximal prime subgraphs. The correctness of the method is proven and results relating the maximal prime subgraph decomposition (MPD) to the maximal complete subgraphs of the moral graph of the original Bayesian network are presented. The maximal prime subgraphs of a Bayesian network can be organized as a tree which can be used as the computational structure for LAZY propagation. We also identify a number of tasks performed on Bayesian networks that can benefit from MPD. These tasks are: divide and conquer triangulation, hybrid propagation algorithms combining exact and approximative inference techniques, and incremental construction of junction trees. We compare the proposed algorithm with standard algorithms for decomposition of undirected graphs into their maximal prime subgraphs. The discussion shows that the proposed algorithm is simpler, more easy to comprehend, and it has the same complexity as the standard algorithms.

The efficiency of algorithms for probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks can be improved by exploiting independence of causal influence. The factorized representation of independence of causal influence offers a factorized decomposition of certain independence of causal influence models. We describe how LAZY propagation - a junction tree based inference algorithm - easily can be extended to take advantage of the decomposition offered by the factorized representation. We introduce two extensions to the factorized representation easing the knowledge acquisition task and reducing the space complexity of the representation exponentially in the state space size of the effect variable of an independence of causal influence model. We describe how the factorized representation can be used to solve tasks such as calculating the maximum a posteriori hypotheses, the maximum expected utility, and the most probable configuration. Finally, the results of an empirical evaluation indicate that considerable performance improvements can be obtained using LAZY propagation combined with the factorized representation compared to LAZY propagation performed in junction trees constructed after either parent divorcing or temporal transformation have been applied to the Bayesian network.