A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multitask learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors’ estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty in both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performance when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grids of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real data sets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

A novel multi-task Gaussian process (GP) framework is proposed, by using a common mean process for sharing information across tasks. In particular, we investigate the problem of time series forecasting, with the objective to improve multiple-step-ahead predictions. The common mean process is defined as a GP for which the hyper-posterior distribution is tractable. Therefore an EM algorithm is derived for handling both hyper-parameters optimisation and hyper-posterior computation. Unlike previous approaches in the literature, the model fully accounts for uncertainty and can handle irregular grids of observations while maintaining explicit formulations, by modelling the mean process in a unified GP framework. Predictive analytical equations are provided, integrating information shared across tasks through a relevant prior mean. This approach greatly improves the predictive performances, even far from observations, and may reduce significantly the computational complexity compared to traditional multi-task GP models. Our overall algorithm is called \textsc{Magma} (standing for Multi tAsk Gaussian processes with common MeAn). The quality of the mean process estimation, predictive performances, and comparisons to alternatives are assessed in various simulated scenarios and on real datasets.

The problems of model and variable selections for classification trees are jointly considered. A penalized criterion is proposed which explicitly takes into account the number of variables, and a risk bound inequality is provided for the tree classifier minimizing this criterion. This penalized criterion is compared to the one used during the pruning step of the CART algorithm. It is shown that the two criteria are similar under some specific margin assumptions. In practice, the tuning parameter of the CART penalty has to be calibrated by hold-out or cross-validation. A simulation study is performed to compare the form of the theoretical penalized criterion we propose with the form obtained after tuning the regularization parameter via cross-validation.

The performance of the classification and regression trees (CART) pruning algorithm and the final discrete selection by test sample as a functional estimation procedure are considered. The validation of the pruning procedure applied to Gaussian and bounded regression is of primary interest. On the one hand, the paper shows that the complexity penalty used in the pruning algorithm is valid in both cases and, on the other hand, that, conditionally to the construction of the maximal tree, the final selection does not alter dramatically the estimation accuracy of the regression function. In both cases, the risk bounds that are proved, obtained by using the penalized model selection, validate the CART algorithm which is used in many applications such as meteorology, biology, medicine, pollution monitoring, or image coding.