Consider the problem of out-of-distribution prediction given data from multiple environments. While a sufficiently diverse collection of training environments will facilitate the identification of an invariant predictor, with an optimal generalization performance, many applications only provide us with a limited number of environments. It is thus necessary to consider adapting to distribution shift using a handful of labeled test samples. We propose a constrained Bayesian approach for this task, which restricts to models with a worst-group training loss above a prespecified threshold. Our method avoids a pathology of the standard Bayesian posterior, which occurs when spurious correlations improve in-distribution prediction. We also show that on certain high-dimensional linear problems, constrained modeling improves the sample efficiency of adaptation. Synthetic and real-world experiments demonstrate the robust performance of our approach.

We investigate nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) regression given high-dimensional instruments. We propose a simple algorithm which combines kernelized IV methods and an arbitrary, adaptive regression algorithm, accessed as a black box. Our algorithm enjoys faster-rate convergence and adapts to the dimensionality of informative latent features, while avoiding an expensive minimax optimization procedure, which has been necessary to establish similar guarantees. It further brings the benefit of flexible machine learning models to quasi-Bayesian uncertainty quantification, likelihood-based model selection, and model averaging. Simulation studies demonstrate the competitive performance of our method.

Cycle-consistent training is widely used for jointly learning a forward and inverse mapping between two domains of interest without the cumbersome requirement of collecting matched pairs within each domain. In this regard, the implicit assumption is that there exists (at least approximately) a ground-truth bijection such that a given input from either domain can be accurately reconstructed from successive application of the respective mappings. But in many applications no such bijection can be expected to exist and large reconstruction errors can compromise the success of cycle-consistent training. As one important instance of this limitation, we consider practically-relevant situations where there exists a many-to-one or surjective mapping between domains. To address this regime, we develop a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) approach that can be viewed as converting surjective mappings to implicit bijections whereby reconstruction errors in both directions can be minimized, and as a natural byproduct, realistic output diversity can be obtained in the one-to-many direction. As theoretical motivation, we analyze a simplified scenario whereby minima of the proposed CVAE-based energy function align with the recovery of ground-truth surjective mappings. On the empirical side, we consider a synthetic image dataset with known ground-truth, as well as a real-world application involving natural language generation from knowledge graphs and vice versa, a prototypical surjective case. For the latter, our CVAE pipeline can capture such many-to-one mappings during cycle training while promoting textural diversity for graph-to-text tasks.

Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we present a scalable quasi-Bayesian procedure for IV regression, building upon the recently developed kernelized IV models. Contrary to Bayesian modeling for IV, our approach does not require additional assumptions on the data generating process, and leads to a scalable approximate inference algorithm with time cost comparable to the corresponding point estimation methods. Our algorithm can be further extended to work with neural network models. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed quasi-posterior, and demonstrate through empirical evaluation the competitive performance of our method.

Score matching provides an effective approach to learning flexible unnormalized models, but its scalability is limited by the need to evaluate a second-order derivative. In this paper, we present a scalable approximation to a general family of learning objectives including score matching, by observing a new connection between these objectives and Wasserstein gradient flows. We present applications with promise in learning neural density estimators on manifolds, and training implicit variational and Wasserstein auto-encoders with a manifold-valued prior.

In narrow asymptotic settings Gaussian VAE models of continuous data have been shown to possess global optima aligned with ground-truth distributions. Even so, it is well known that poor solutions whereby the latent posterior collapses to an uninformative prior are sometimes obtained in practice. However, contrary to conventional wisdom that largely assigns blame for this phenomena on the undue influence of KL-divergence regularization, we will argue that posterior collapse is, at least in part, a direct consequence of bad local minima inherent to the loss surface of deep autoencoder networks. In particular, we prove that even small nonlinear perturbations of affine VAE decoder models can produce such minima, and in deeper models, analogous minima can force the VAE to behave like an aggressive truncation operator, provably discarding information along all latent dimensions in certain circumstances. Regardless, the underlying message here is not meant to undercut valuable existing explanations of posterior collapse, but rather, to refine the discussion and elucidate alternative risk factors that may have been previously underappreciated.

The recent, counter-intuitive discovery that deep generative models (DGMs) can frequently assign a higher likelihood to outliers has implications for both outlier detection applications as well as our overall understanding of generative modeling. In this work, we present a possible explanation for this phenomenon, starting from the observation that a model's typical set and high-density region may not conincide. From this vantage point we propose a novel outlier test, the empirical success of which suggests that the failure of existing likelihood-based outlier tests does not necessarily imply that the corresponding generative model is uncalibrated. We also conduct additional experiments to help disentangle the impact of low-level texture versus high-level semantics in differentiating outliers. In aggregate, these results suggest that modifications to the standard evaluation practices and benchmarks commonly applied in the literature are needed.