We propose data thinning, an approach for splitting an observation into two or more independent parts that sum to the original observation, and that follow the same distribution as the original observation, up to a (known) scaling of a parameter. This very general proposal is applicable to any convolution-closed distribution, a class that includes the Gaussian, Poisson, negative binomial, gamma, and binomial distributions, among others. Data thinning has a number of applications to model selection, evaluation, and inference. For instance, cross-validation via data thinning provides an attractive alternative to the usual approach of cross-validation via sample splitting, especially in settings in which the latter is not applicable. In simulations and in an application to single-cell RNA-sequencing data, we show that data thinning can be used to validate the results of unsupervised learning approaches, such as k-means clustering and principal components analysis, for which traditional sample splitting is unattractive or unavailable.

We consider the problem of testing for a difference in means between clusters of observations identified via k-means clustering. In this setting, classical hypothesis tests lead to an inflated Type I error rate. In recent work, Gao et al. (2022) considered a related problem in the context of hierarchical clustering. Unfortunately, their solution is highly-tailored to the context of hierarchical clustering, and thus cannot be applied in the setting of k-means clustering. In this paper, we propose a p-value that conditions on all of the intermediate clustering assignments in the k-means algorithm. We show that the p-value controls the selective Type I error for a test of the difference in means between a pair of clusters obtained using k-means clustering in finite samples, and can be efficiently computed. We apply our proposal on hand-written digits data and on single-cell RNA-sequencing data.

Recent work has focused on the very common practice of prediction-based inference: that is, (i) using a pre-trained machine learning model to predict an unobserved response variable, and then (ii) conducting inference on the association between that predicted response and some covariates. As pointed out by Wang et al. (2020), applying a standard inferential approach in (ii) does not accurately quantify the association between the unobserved (as opposed to the predicted) response and the covariates. In recent work, Wang et al. (2020) and Angelopoulos et al. (2023) propose corrections to step (ii) in order to enable valid inference on the association between the unobserved response and the covariates. Here, we show that the method proposed by Angelopoulos et al. (2023) successfully controls the type 1 error rate and provides confidence intervals with correct nominal coverage, regardless of the quality of the pre-trained machine learning model used to predict the unobserved response. However, the method proposed by Wang et al. (2020) provides valid inference only under very strong conditions that rarely hold in practice: for instance, if the machine learning model perfectly estimates the true regression function in the study population of interest.

A major goal of computational neuroscience is to build accurate models of the activity of neurons that can be used to interpret their function in circuits. Here, we explore using functional cell types to refine single-cell models by grouping them into functionally relevant classes. Formally, we define a hierarchical generative model for cell types, single-cell parameters, and neural responses, and then derive an expectation-maximization algorithm with variational inference that maximizes the likelihood of the neural recordings. We apply this "simultaneous" method to estimate cell types and fit single-cell models from simulated data, and find that it accurately recovers the ground truth parameters. We then apply our approach to in vitro neural recordings from neurons in mouse primary visual cortex, and find that it yields improved prediction of single-cell activity. We demonstrate that the discovered cell-type clusters are well separated and generalizable, and thus amenable to interpretation. We then compare discovered cluster memberships with locational, morphological, and transcriptomic data. Our findings reveal the potential to improve models of neural responses by explicitly allowing for shared functional properties across neurons.

We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) (Breiman et al., 1984) algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data will not achieve standard guarantees, such as Type 1 error rate control and nominal coverage. Thus, we propose a selective inference framework for conducting inference on a fitted CART tree. In a nutshell, we condition on the fact that the tree was estimated from the data. We propose a test for the difference in the mean response between a pair of terminal nodes that controls the selective Type 1 error rate, and a confidence interval for the mean response within a single terminal node that attains the nominal selective coverage. Efficient algorithms for computing the necessary conditioning sets are provided. We apply these methods in simulation and to a dataset involving the association between portion control interventions and caloric intake.

We consider the problem of predicting an outcome variable on the basis of a small number of covariates, using an interpretable yet non-additive model. We propose convex regression with interpretable sharp partitions (CRISP) for this task. CRISP partitions the covariate space into blocks in a data- adaptive way, and fits a mean model within each block. Unlike other partitioning methods, CRISP is fit using a non-greedy approach by solving a convex optimization problem, resulting in low- variance fits. We explore the properties of CRISP, and evaluate its performance in a simulation study and on a housing price data set.

Graphical models provide a rich framework for summarizing the dependencies among variables. The graphical lasso approach attempts to learn the structure of a Gaussian graphical model (GGM) by maximizing the log likelihood of the data, subject to an l1 penalty on the elements of the inverse covariance matrix. Most algorithms for solving the graphical lasso problem do not scale to a very large number of variables. Furthermore, the learned network structure is hard to interpret. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel GGM structure learning method that exploits the fact that for many real-world problems we have prior knowledge that certain edges are unlikely to be present. For example, in gene regulatory networks, a pair of genes that does not participate together in any of the cellular processes, typically referred to as pathways, is less likely to be connected. In computer vision applications in which each variable corresponds to a pixel, each variable is likely to be connected to the nearby variables. In this paper, we propose the pathway graphical lasso, which learns the structure of a GGM subject to pathway-based constraints. In order to solve this problem, we decompose the network into smaller parts, and use a message-passing algorithm in order to communicate among the subnetworks. Our algorithm has orders of magnitude improvement in run time compared to the state-of-the-art optimization methods for the graphical lasso problem that were modified to handle pathway-based constraints.

Cancers arise from successive rounds of mutation and selection, generating clonal populations that vary in size, mutational content and drug responsiveness. Ascertaining the clonal composition of a tumor is therefore important both for prognosis and therapy. Mutation counts and frequencies resulting from next-generation sequencing (NGS) potentially reflect a tumor's clonal composition; however, deconvolving NGS data to infer a tumor's clonal structure presents a major challenge. We propose a generative model for NGS data derived from multiple subsections of a single tumor, and we describe an expectation-maximization procedure for estimating the clonal genotypes and relative frequencies using this model. We demonstrate, via simulation, the validity of the approach, and then use our algorithm to assess the clonal composition of a primary breast cancer and associated metastatic lymph node. After dividing the tumor into subsections, we perform exome sequencing for each subsection to assess mutational content, followed by deep sequencing to precisely count normal and variant alleles within each subsection. By quantifying the frequencies of 17 somatic variants, we demonstrate that our algorithm predicts clonal relationships that are both phylogenetically and spatially plausible. Applying this method to larger numbers of tumors should cast light on the clonal evolution of cancers in space and time.

It has been claimed that most research findings are false, and it is known that large-scale studies involving omics data are especially prone to errors in design, execution, and analysis. The situation is alarming because taxpayer dollars fund a substantial amount of biomedical research, and because the publication of a research article that is later determined to be flawed can erode the credibility of an entire field, resulting in a severe and negative impact for years to come. Here, we urge the development of an online, open-access, postpublication, peer review system that will increase the accountability of scientists for the quality of their research and the ability of readers to distinguish good from sloppy science.

We consider estimation of multiple high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models corresponding to a single set of nodes under several distinct conditions. We assume that most aspects of the networks are shared, but that there are some structured differences between them. Specifically, the network differences are generated from node perturbations: a few nodes are perturbed across networks, and most or all edges stemming from such nodes differ between networks. This corresponds to a simple model for the mechanism underlying many cancers, in which the gene regulatory network is disrupted due to the aberrant activity of a few specific genes. We propose to solve this problem using the structured joint graphical lasso, a convex optimization problem that is based upon the use of a novel symmetric overlap norm penalty, which we solve using an alternating directions method of multipliers algorithm. Our proposal is illustrated on synthetic data and on an application to brain cancer gene expression data.