We propose a novel formalism for describing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as fixed-point problems on causally ordered variables, eliminating the need for Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), and establish the weakest known conditions for their unique recovery given the topological ordering (TO). Based on this, we design a two-stage causal generative model that first infers in a zero-shot manner a valid TO from observations, and then learns the generative SCM on the ordered variables. To infer TOs, we propose to amortize the learning of TOs on synthetically generated datasets by sequentially predicting the leaves of graphs seen during training. To learn SCMs, we design a transformer-based architecture that exploits a new attention mechanism enabling the modeling of causal structures, and show that this parameterization is consistent with our formalism. Finally, we conduct an extensive evaluation of each method individually, and show that when combined, our model outperforms various baselines on generated out-of-distribution problems.

Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel, theoretically justified method called Causal Inference with Attention (CInA), which utilizes multiple unlabeled datasets to perform self-supervised causal learning, and subsequently enables zero-shot causal inference on unseen tasks with new data. This is based on our theoretical results that demonstrate the primal-dual connection between optimal covariate balancing and self-attention, facilitating zero-shot causal inference through the final layer of a trained transformer-type architecture. We demonstrate empirically that CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets, matching or even surpassing traditional per-dataset methodologies. These results provide compelling evidence that our method has the potential to serve as a stepping stone for the development of causal foundation models.

We formalize the problem of contextual optimization through the lens of Bayesian experimental design and propose CO-BED---a general, model-agnostic framework for designing contextual experiments using information-theoretic principles. After formulating a suitable information-based objective, we employ black-box variational methods to simultaneously estimate it and optimize the designs in a single stochastic gradient scheme. In addition, to accommodate discrete actions within our framework, we propose leveraging continuous relaxation schemes, which can naturally be integrated into our variational objective. As a result, CO-BED provides a general and automated solution to a wide range of contextual optimization problems. We illustrate its effectiveness in a number of experiments, where CO-BED demonstrates competitive performance even when compared to bespoke, model-specific alternatives.

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Graph representations of a target domain often project it to a set of entities (nodes) and their relations (edges). However, such projections often miss important and rich information. For example, in graph representations used in missing value imputation, items --- represented as nodes --- may contain rich textual information. However, when processing graphs with graph neural networks (GNN), such information is either ignored or summarized into a single vector representation used to initialize the GNN. Towards addressing this, we present CoRGi, a GNN that considers the rich data within nodes in the context of their neighbors. This is achieved by endowing CoRGi's message passing with a personalized attention mechanism over the content of each node. This way, CoRGi assigns user-item-specific attention scores with respect to the words that appear in an item's content. We evaluate CoRGi on two edge-value prediction tasks and show that CoRGi is better at making edge-value predictions over existing methods, especially on sparse regions of the graph.

Learning structures between groups of variables from data with missing values is an important task in the real world, yet difficult to solve. One typical scenario is discovering the structure among topics in the education domain to identify learning pathways. Here, the observations are student performances for questions under each topic which contain missing values. However, most existing methods focus on learning structures between a few individual variables from the complete data. In this work, we propose VISL, a novel scalable structure learning approach that can simultaneously infer structures between groups of variables under missing data and perform missing value imputations with deep learning. Particularly, we propose a generative model with a structured latent space and a graph neural network-based architecture, scaling to a large number of variables. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world education data sets. We show improved performances on both imputation and structure learning accuracy compared to popular and recent approaches.

Online education platforms enable teachers to share a large number of educational resources such as questions to form exercises and quizzes for students. With large volumes of available questions, it is important to have an automated way to quantify their properties and intelligently select them for students, enabling effective and personalized learning experiences. In this work, we propose a framework for mining insights from educational questions at scale. We utilize the state-of-the-art Bayesian deep learning method, in particular partial variational auto-encoders (p-VAE), to analyze real students' answers to a large collection of questions. Based on p-VAE, we propose two novel metrics that quantify question quality and difficulty, respectively, and a personalized strategy to adaptively select questions for students. We apply our proposed framework to a real-world dataset with tens of thousands of questions and tens of millions of answers from an online education platform. Our framework not only demonstrates promising results in terms of statistical metrics but also obtains highly consistent results with domain experts' evaluation.

Game theory has been increasingly applied in settings where the game is not known outright, but has to be estimated by sampling. For example, meta-games that arise in multi-agent evaluation can only be accessed by running a succession of expensive experiments that may involve simultaneous deployment of several agents. In this paper, we focus on α-rank, a popular game-theoretic solution concept designed to perform well in such scenarios. We aim to estimate the α-rank of the game using as few samples as possible. Our algorithm maximizes information gain between an epistemic belief over the α-ranks and the observed payoff. This approach has two main benefits. First, it allows us to focus our sampling on the entries that matter the most for identifying the α-rank. Second, the Bayesian formulation provides a facility to build in modeling assumptions by using a prior over game payoffs. We show the benefits of using information gain as compared to the confidence interval criterion of ResponseGraphUCB, and provide theoretical results justifying our method.

Variational inference (VI) plays an essential role in approximate Bayesian inference due to its computational efficiency and broad applicability. Crucial to the performance of VI is the selection of the associated divergence measure, as VI approximates the intractable distribution by minimizing this divergence. In this paper we propose a meta-learning algorithm to learn the divergence metric suited for the task of interest, automating the design of VI methods. In addition, we learn the initialization of the variational parameters without additional cost when our method is deployed in the few-shot learning scenarios. We demonstrate our approach outperforms standard VI on Gaussian mixture distribution approximation, Bayesian neural network regression, image generation with variational autoencoders and recommender systems with a partial variational autoencoder.

Real-world datasets often have missing values associated with complex generative processes, where the cause of the missingness may not be fully observed. This is known as missing not at random (MNAR) data. However, many imputation methods do not take into account the missingness mechanism, resulting in biased imputation values when MNAR data is present. Although there are a few methods that have considered the MNAR scenario, their model's identifiability under MNAR is generally not guaranteed. That is, model parameters can not be uniquely determined even with infinite data samples, hence the imputation results given by such models can still be biased. This issue is especially overlooked by many modern deep generative models. In this work, we fill in this gap by systematically analyzing the identifiability of generative models under MNAR. Furthermore, we propose a practical deep generative model which can provide identifiability guarantees under mild assumptions, for a wide range of MNAR mechanisms. Our method demonstrates a clear advantage for tasks on both synthetic data and multiple real-world scenarios with MNAR data.

Bayesian Neural Networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency, requiring parameter storage several times that of their deterministic counterparts. To address this, we augment each weight matrix with a small inducing weight matrix, projecting the uncertainty quantification into a lower dimensional space. We further extend Matheron’s conditional Gaussian sampling rule to enable fast weight sampling, which enables our inference method to maintain reasonable run-time as compared with ensembles. Importantly, our approach achieves competitive performance to the state-of-the-art in prediction and uncertainty estimation tasks with fully connected neural networks and ResNets, while reducing the parameter size to $\leq 24.3\%$ of that of a single neural network.

We present a causal view on the robustness of neural networks against input manipulations, which applies not only to traditional classification tasks but also to general measurement data. Based on this view, we design a deep causal manipulation augmented model (deep CAMA) which explicitly models possible manipulations on certain causes leading to changes in the observed effect. We further develop data augmentation and test-time fine-tuning methods to improve deep CAMA's robustness. When compared with discriminative deep neural networks, our proposed model shows superior robustness against unseen manipulations. As a by-product, our model achieves disentangled representation which separates the representation of manipulations from those of other latent causes.

Deep generative models often perform poorly in real-world applications due to the heterogeneity of natural data sets. Heterogeneity arises from data containing different types of features (categorical, ordinal, continuous, etc.) and features of the same type having different marginal distributions. We propose an extension of variational autoencoders (VAEs) called VAEM to handle such heterogeneous data. VAEM is a deep generative model that is trained in a two stage manner, such that the first stage provides a more uniform representation of the data to the second stage, thereby sidestepping the problems caused by heterogeneous data. We provide extensions of VAEM to handle partially observed data, and demonstrate its performance in data generation, missing data prediction and sequential feature selection tasks. Our results show that VAEM broadens the range of real-world applications where deep generative models can be successfully deployed.

Although many fairness criteria have been proposed for decision making, their long-term impact on the well-being of a population remains unclear. In this work, we study the dynamics of population qualification and algorithmic decisions under a partially observed Markov decision problem setting. By characterizing the equilibrium of such dynamics, we analyze the long-term impact of static fairness constraints on the equality and improvement of group well-being. Our results show that static fairness constraints can either promote equality or exacerbate disparity depending on the driving factor of qualification transitions and the effect of sensitive attributes on feature distributions. We also consider possible interventions that can effectively improve group qualification or promote equality of group qualification. Our theoretical results and experiments on static real-world datasets with simulated dynamics show that our framework can be used to facilitate social science studies.

The convergence speed of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can be improved by actively selecting mini-batches. We explore sampling schemes where similar data points are less likely to be selected in the same mini-batch. In particular, we prove that such repulsive sampling schemes lower the variance of the gradient estimator. This generalizes recent work on using Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) for mini-batch diversification (Zhang et al., 2017) to the broader class of repulsive point processes. We first show that the phenomenon of variance reduction by diversified sampling generalizes in particular to non-stationary point processes. We then show that other point processes may be computationally much more efficient than DPPs. In particular, we propose and investigate Poisson Disk sampling—frequently encountered in the computer graphics community—for this task. We show empirically that our approach improves over standard SGD both in terms of convergence speed as well as final model performance.

Missing data are ubiquitous in many domains such as healthcare. When these data entries are not missing completely at random, the (conditional) independence relations in the observed data may be different from those in the complete data generated by the underlying causal process. Consequently, simply applying existing causal discovery methods to the observed data may lead to wrong conclusions. In this paper, we aim at developing a causal discovery method to recover the underlying causal structure from observed data that are missing under different mechanisms, including missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). With missingness mechanisms represented by missingness graphs (m-graphs), we analyze conditions under which additional correction is needed to derive conditional independence/dependence relations in the complete data. Based on our analysis, we propose Missing Value PC (MVPC), which extends the PC algorithm to incorporate additional corrections. Our proposed MVPC is shown in theory to give asymptotically correct results even on data that are MAR or MNAR. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real healthcare applications illustrate that the proposed algorithm is able to find correct causal relations even in the general case of MNAR.

Many real-life decision making situations allow further relevant information to be acquired at a specific cost, for example, in assessing the health status of a patient we may decide to take additional measurements such as diagnostic tests or imaging scans before making a final assessment. Acquiring more relevant information enables better decision making, but may be costly. How can we trade off the desire to make good decisions by acquiring further information with the cost of performing that acquisition? To this end, we propose a principled framework, named EDDI (Efficient Dynamic Discovery of high-value Information), based on the theory of Bayesian experimental design. In EDDI, we propose a novel partial variational autoencoder (Partial VAE) to predict missing data entries problematically given any subset of the observed ones, and combine it with an acquisition function that maximizes expected information gain on a set of target variables. We show cost reduction at the same decision quality and improved decision quality at the same cost in multiple machine learning benchmarks and two real-world health-care applications.

In this paper, we address the ice-start problem, i.e., the challenge of deploying machine learning models when only a little or no training data is initially available, and acquiring each feature element of data is associated with costs. This setting is representative of the real-world machine learning applications. For instance, in the health care domain, obtaining every single measurement comes with a cost. We propose Icebreaker, a principled framework for elementwise training data acquisition. Icebreaker introduces a full Bayesian Deep Latent Gaussian Model (BELGAM) with a novel inference method, which combines recent advances in amortized inference and stochastic gradient MCMC to enable fast and accurate posterior inference. By utilizing BELGAM’s ability to fully quantify model uncertainty, we also propose two information acquisition functions for imputation and active prediction problems. We demonstrate that BELGAM performs significantly better than previous variational autoencoder (VAE) based models, when the data set size is small, using both machine learning benchmarks and real world recommender systems and health-care applications. Moreover, Icebreaker not only demonstrates improved performance compared to baselines, but it is also capable of achieving better test performance with less training data available.

The ability for policies to generalize to new environments is key to the broad application of RL agents. A promising approach to prevent an agent’s policy from overfitting to a limited set of training environments is to apply regularization techniques originally developed for supervised learning. However, there are stark differences between supervised learning and RL. We discuss those differences and propose modifications to existing regularization techniques in order to better adapt them to RL. In particular, we focus on regularization techniques relying on the injection of noise into the learned function, a family that includes some of the most widely used approaches such as Dropout and Batch Normalization. To adapt them to RL, we propose Selective Noise Injection (SNI), which maintains the regularizing effect the injected noise has, while mitigating the adverse effects it has on the gradient quality. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the Information Bottleneck (IB) is a particularly well suited regularization technique for RL as it is effective in the low-data regime encountered early on in training RL agents. Combining the IB with SNI, we significantly outperform current state of the art results, including on the recently proposed generalization benchmark Coinrun.

Discovery of causal relations from observational data is essential for many disciplines of science and real-world applications. However, unlike other machine learning algorithms, whose development has been greatly fostered by a large amount of available benchmark datasets, causal discovery algorithms are notoriously difficult to be systematically evaluated because few datasets with known ground-truth causal relations are available. In this work, we handle the problem of evaluating causal discovery algorithms by building a flexible simulator in the medical setting. We develop a neuropathic pain diagnosis simulator, inspired by the fact that the biological processes of neuropathic pathophysiology are well studied with well-understood causal influences. Our simulator exploits the causal graph of the neuropathic pain pathology and its parameters in the generator are estimated from real-life patient cases. We show that the data generated from our simulator have similar statistics as real-world data. As a clear advantage, the simulator can produce infinite samples without jeopardizing the privacy of real-world patients. Our simulator provides a natural tool for evaluating various types of causal discovery algorithms, including those to deal with practical issues in causal discovery, such as unknown confounders, selection bias, and missing data. Using our simulator, we have evaluated extensively causal discovery algorithms under various settings.

Image classification models built into visual support systems and other assistive devices need to provide accurate predictions about their environment. We focus on an application of assistive technology for people with visual impairments, for daily activities such as shopping or cooking. In this paper, we provide a new benchmark dataset for a challenging task in this application - classification of fruits, vegetables, and refrigerated products, e.g. milk packages and juice cartons, in grocery stores. To enable the learning process to utilize multiple sources of structured information, this dataset not only contains a large volume of natural images but also includes the corresponding information of the product from an online shopping website. Such information encompasses the hierarchical structure of the object classes, as well as an iconic image of each type of object. This dataset can be used to train and evaluate image classification models for helping visually impaired people in natural environments. Additionally, we provide benchmark results evaluated on pretrained convolutional neural networks often used for image understanding purposes, and also a multi-view variational autoencoder, which is capable of utilizing the rich product information in the dataset.

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a high-dimensional Bayesian posterior with a simpler variational distribution by solving an optimization problem. This approach has been successfully applied to various models and large-scale applications. In this review, we give an overview of recent trends in variational inference. We first introduce standard mean field variational inference, then review recent advances focusing on the following aspects: (a) scalable VI, which includes stochastic approximations, (b) generic VI, which extends the applicability of VI to a large class of otherwise intractable models, such as non-conjugate models, (c) accurate VI, which includes variational models beyond the mean field approximation or with atypical divergences, and (d) amortized VI, which implements the inference over local latent variables with inference networks. Finally, we provide a summary of promising future research directions.

Word embeddings have become a mainstream tool in statistical natural language processing.Practitioners often use pre-trained word vectors, which were trained on large generic text corpora, and which are readily available on the web.However, pre-trained word vectors oftentimes lack important words from specific domains.It is therefore often desirable to extend the vocabulary and embed new words into a set of pre-trained word vectors.In this paper, we present an efficient method for including new words from a specialized corpus, containing new words, into pre-trained generic word embeddings.We build on the established view of word embeddings as matrix factorizations to present a spectral algorithm for this task.Experiments on several domain-specific corpora with specialized vocabularies demonstrate that our method is able to embed the new words efficiently into the original embedding space.Compared to competing methods, our method is faster, parameter-free, and deterministic.

Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with generalized divergences as a form of estimating the marginal likelihood via biased importance sampling. The choice of divergence determines a bias-variance trade-off between the tightness of a bound on the marginal likelihood (low bias) and the variance of its gradient estimators. Drawing on variational perturbation theory of statistical physics, we use these insights to construct a family of new variational bounds. Enumerated by an odd integer order $K$, this family captures the standard KL bound for $K=1$, and converges to the exact marginal likelihood as $K\to\infty$. Compared to alpha-divergences, our reparameterization gradients have a lower variance. We show in experiments on Gaussian Processes and Variational Autoencoders that the new bounds are more mass covering, and that the resulting posterior covariances are closer to the true posterior and lead to higher likelihoods on held-out data.

Learning about activities and object affordances from human demonstration are important cognitive capabilities for robots functioning in human environments, for example, being able to classify objects and knowing how to grasp them for different tasks. To achieve such capabilities, we propose a Labeled Multi-modal Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LM-LDA), which is a generative classifier trained with two different data cues, for instance, one cue can be traditional visual observation and another cue can be contextual information. The novel aspects of the LM-LDA classifier, compared to other methods for encoding contextual information are that, I) even with only one of the cues present at execution time, the classification will be better than single cue classification since cue correlations are encoded in the model, II) one of the cues (e.g., common grasps for the observed object class) can be inferred from the other cue (e.g., the appearance of the observed object). This makes the method suitable for robot online and transfer learning; a capability highly desirable in cognitive robotic applications. Our experiments show a clear improvement for classification and a reasonable inference of the missing data.