The SLEUTH model provides a framework for understanding land use evolution around urban areas. Calibration of SLEUTH’s behavioral coefficients can be impacted by scale and nonlinear transitions due to the SLEUTH land use deltatron module’s assumption of linear Markov change probabilities. This study attempted to establish what spatial resolution and temporal scale produces the most accurate forecasts given the linear change assumption. The impact of tiling the input data was also examined. To determine these, SLEUTH was calibrated at four spatial and three temporal scales for Ibadan, Nigeria using both untiled and tiled data. Calibration results were evaluated using accuracy metrics including Figure of Merit (FOM) and mean uncertainty. The best mix of calibration metrics (FOM 0.26) and mean uncertainty (11.64) was achieved at 30 m resolution and an intermediate temporal interval. Tiling input data led to overfitting, allowing good model fit within individual tiles but a reduction in trend recognition across land use types. Subsequently, a 2040 projection that is as accurate as possible, and scientifically justifiable given the available data, was produced. The findings provide a framework for understanding the effect of spatiotemporal scale on SLEUTH inputs that require tiling particularly for urban areas in the global south.

The majority of spatial data provided as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) are roads and other linear map features. Such data have been widely used in routing and navigation, road network update, emergency response, urban planning and more. Due to the lack of cartographic standards and issues with volunteer credibility, the quality of VGI linear features remains a concern and could seriously hinder the broad application of VGI data. This research proposes a comprehensive quality assessment framework for VGI linear features which adopts factor analysis to integrate two novel quality metrics with six other commonly used metrics, and further examines the spatial autocorrelation and semantic correlation of VGI linear feature quality. The OpenStreetMap road network of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (USA) was selected as an example to test the proposed framework. Our results suggest that the proposed metrics, Box-counting dimension difference and Link accuracy are feasible for detecting quality issues and are important supplements to the common quality metrics. The findings also show that significant spatial autocorrelation exists in spatial completeness, positional accuracy, and logical consistency. Road type such as Tertiary, Residential, Service and Link has been proven to be a typical indicator of the different quality elements for VGI linear features.

Big Data have emerged and become the norm in the past decade with its well-known 4V challenges and now adds value (a 5th V) for scientific research and the development of new applications. Such Big...

Understanding the spatial scale sensitivity of cellular automata is crucial for improving the accuracy of land use change simulation. We propose a framework based on a response surface method to comprehensively explore spatial scale sensitivity of the cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and present a hybrid evaluation model for expressing simulation accuracy that merges the strengths of the Kappa coefficient and of Contagion index. Three Landsat-Thematic Mapper remote sensing images of Wuhan in 1987, 1996, and 2005 were used to extract land use information. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale sensitivity of the CA-Markov model resulting from individual components and their combinations are both worthy of attention. The utility of our proposed hybrid evaluation model and response surface method to investigate the sensitivity has proven to be more accurate than the single Kappa coefficient method and more efficient than traditional methods. The findings also show that the CA-Markov model is more sensitive to neighborhood size than to cell size or neighborhood type considering individual component effects. Particularly, the bilateral and trilateral interactions between neighborhood and cell size result in a more remarkable scale effect than that of a single cell size.

The paper presents a computationally efficient meta-modeling approach to spatially explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in a cellular automata (CA) urban growth and land-use simulation model. The uncertainty and sensitivity of the model parameters are approximated using a meta-modeling method called polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). The parameter uncertainty and sensitivity measures obtained with PCE are compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation results. The meta-modeling approach was found to reduce the number of model simulations necessary to arrive at stable sensitivity estimates. The quality of the results is comparable to the full-order modeling approach, which is computationally costly. The study shows that the meta-modeling approach can significantly reduce the computational effort of carrying out spatially explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the application of spatio-temporal models.

This research introduces and tests a new masking technique for sensitive point-based geospatial data. The goal of masking is to allow data to be used for general measurements of spatial distributions, but to not permit the matching of points with their true underlying observations, usually street addresses, in order to protect identity and privacy. The proposed method first converts coordinates to the Military Grid Reference System (MGRS), then uses digit switching to mask coordinates. This permits encryption at five spatial levels of precision, equivalent to 1, 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 m. Of the 1.3M possible digit switching combinations, one is chosen that minimizes the difference between the aggregate descriptive spatial statistics for the point set as a whole between the masked and the unmasked data. Most heavily weighted in the selection is the nearest neighbor statistic, a measure of clustering in the distribution. The masking method was implemented for point sets within a single MGRS cell square using NGA’s GEOTRANS software and new custom C language code, with both forward and inverse algorithms. The forward masking saves the translation code in a separate file without which the inversion is practically impossible, meaning that the masked data can be offered publicly. Four test point distributions were used to show the method in action. The method appears to offer new possibilities for the protection of sensitive geospatial data.

A combined GIS and remote sensing approach to map and model the large wildfires in the summer 2003 at Glacier National Park. Numerical simulations were performed using the Clarke cellular automaton fire model, and the fire extents were validated using remote sensing data from the MODIS instrument. The results show a good correlation between the predicted fires and the actual. In addition, remote sensing data from the MODIS and TOMS instruments are used to quantify the optical dimming of the atmosphere caused by the fires. Atmospheric dimming correlated both spatially and temporally with the amount of burned fuel computed by the Clarke model. The observed atmospheric dimming is correlated both spatially and temporally with the fire simulations. Such knowledge is crucial in order to build a coupled land-atmosphere fire model.

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.

A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library (pRPL) was developed and applied to speed up a commonly used cellular automaton model with known tractability limitations. The library is suitable for use by geographic information scientists with basic programming skills, but who lack knowledge and experience of parallel computing and programming. pRPL is a general-purpose programming library that provides generic support for raster processing, including local-scope, neighborhood-scope, regional-scope, and global-scope algorithms as long as they are parallelizable. The library also supports multilayer algorithms. Besides the standard data domain decomposition methods, pRPL provides a spatially adaptive quad-tree-based decomposition to produce more evenly distributed workloads among processors. Data parallelism and task parallelism are supported, with both static and dynamic load-balancing. By grouping processors, pRPL also supports data–task hybrid parallelism, i.e., data parallelism within a processor group and task parallelism among processor groups. pSLEUTH, a parallel version of a well-known cellular automata model for simulating urban land-use change (SLEUTH), was developed to demonstrate full utilization of the advanced features of pRPL. Experiments with real-world data sets were conducted and the performance of pSLEUTH measured. We conclude not only that pRPL greatly reduces the development complexity of implementing a parallel raster-processing algorithm, it also greatly reduces the computing time of computationally intensive raster-processing algorithms, as demonstrated with pSLEUTH.

'Tag clouds' and 'tag maps' are introduced to represent geographically referenced text. In combination, these aspatial and spatial views are used to explore a large structured spatio-temporal data set by providing overviews and filtering by text and geography. Prototypes are implemented using freely available technologies including Google Earth and Yahoo! 's Tag Map applet. The interactive tag map and tag cloud techniques and the rapid prototyping method used are informally evaluated through successes and limitations encountered. Preliminary evaluation suggests that the techniques may be useful for generating insights when visualizing large data sets containing geo-referenced text strings. The rapid prototyping approach enabled the technique to be developed and evaluated, leading to geovisualization through which a number of ideas were generated. Limitations of this approach are reflected upon. Tag placement, generalisation and prominence at different scales are issues which have come to light in this study that warrant further work.

Exploratory visual analysis is useful for the preliminary investigation of large structured, multifaceted spatio-temporaldatasets. This process requires the selection and aggregation of records by time, space and attribute, the ability to transform data and the flexibility to apply appropriate visual encodings and interactions. We propose an approach inspired by geographical 'mashups' in which freely-available functionality and data are loosely but flexibly combined using de facto exchange standards. Our case study combines MySQL, PHP and the LandSerf GIS to allow Google Earth to be used for visual synthesis and interaction with encodings described in KML. This approach is applied to the exploration of a log of 1.42 million requests made of a mobile directory service. Novel combinations of interaction and visual encoding are developed including spatial 'tag clouds', 'tag maps', 'data dials' and multi-scale density surfaces. Four aspects of the approach are informally evaluated: the visual encodings employed, their success in the visual exploration of the dataset, the specific tools used and the 'mashup' approach. Preliminary findings will be beneficial to others considering using mashups for visualization. The specific techniques developed may be more widely applied to offer insights into the structure of multifarious spatio-temporal data of the type explored here.

This paper explores an addition to theory in urban geography pertaining to spatio‐temporal dynamics. Remotely sensed data on the historical extent of urban areas were used in a spatial metrics analysis of geographical form of towns and cities in the Central Valley of California (USA). Regularities in the spatio‐temporal pattern of urban growth were detected and characterized over a hundred year period. To test hypotheses about variation over geographical scale, multiple spatial extents were used in examining a set of spatial metric values including an index of contagion, the mean nearest neighbor distance, urban patch density and edge density. Through changes in these values a general temporal oscillation between phases of diffusion and coalescence in urban growth was revealed. Analysis of historical datasets revealed preliminary evidence supporting an addition to the theory of urban growth dynamics, one alluded to in some previous research, but not well developed. The empirical results and findings provide a lead for future research into the dynamics of urban growth and further development of existing urban theory.

Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calibrated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably different urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the differences in the initial configurations and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discusses the role of GIS in the applications. The model has generated some long term predictions that appear useful for urban planning and are consistent with results from other models and observations of growth. Although the GIS was only loosely coupled with the model, the model's provision of future urban patterns as data layers for GIS description and analysis is an important outcome of this type of calculation.