Assessing the validity of a real-world system with respect to given quality criteria is a common yet costly task in industrial applications due to the vast number of required real-world tests. Validating such systems by means of simulation offers a promising and less expensive alternative, but requires an assessment of the simulation accuracy and therefore end-to-end measurements. Additionally, covariate shifts between simulations and actual usage can cause difficulties for estimating the reliability of such systems. In this work, we present a validation method that propagates bounds on distributional discrepancy measures through a composite system, thereby allowing us to derive an upper bound on the failure probability of the real system from potentially inaccurate simulations. Each propagation step entails an optimization problem, where – for measures such as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) – we develop tight convex relaxations based on semidefinite programs. We demonstrate that our propagation method yields valid and useful bounds for composite systems exhibiting a variety of realistic effects. In particular, we show that the proposed method can successfully account for data shifts within the experimental design as well as model inaccuracies within the simulation.

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations model a dynamical environment with neural nets assigned to their drift and diffusion terms. The high expressive power of their nonlinearity comes at the expense of instability in the identification of the large set of free parameters. This paper presents a recipe to improve the prediction accuracy of such models in three steps: i) accounting for epistemic uncertainty by assuming probabilistic weights, ii) incorporation of partial knowledge on the state dynamics, and iii) training the resultant hybrid model by an objective derived from a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. We observe in our experiments that this recipe effectively translates partial and noisy prior knowledge into an improved model fit.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To this end, we propose a method to learn GPs and their sparse approximations by directly optimizing a PAC-Bayesian bound on their generalization performance, instead of maximizing the marginal likelihood. Besides its theoretical appeal, we find in our evaluation that our learning method is robust and yields significantly better generalization guarantees than other common GP approaches on several regression benchmark datasets.

Modular verification approaches have recently gained attention to enable cost efficient handling of changes in safety critical embedded systems. First results in this field are based on formal languages and iterative change processes to analyze the neighboring design elements of the change and thereby determine the effects of the change and possible inconsistencies. The alternative, being mostly applied in practice, is the complete re-verification of modules or even the whole product. In this paper we present simulation results comparing the effectiveness of both approaches by analyzing their effort of re-validation to regain a consistent set of requirements and implementations. As modular re-verification strategies execute only the needed analyzes, the effort progresses linearly with the number of necessary changes within the system. Consequently, we find that for a small number of changes this approach presents a huge saving in contrast to the commonly used approach of complete re-verification. Surprisingly, the critical portion of changes over the system size at which both approaches perform equally well is relatively small.

Due to the fact that currently operating autonomous vehicles can observe only a limited area with their onboard sensors, safety regulations often dictate a very slow speed. However, as more and more sensors in the environment are available, we can fuse their information and provide extended information as a shared context model to support the autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we consider a scenario with a publicly accessible area that is populated with autonomous transport vehicles, human guided vehicles like trucks or bicycles, and pedestrians. We analyze requirements and challenges for highly dynamic context models in this scenario. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive system architecture that can cope with these challenges, namely deterministic processing of multiple sensor updates with high throughput rates, prediction of moving objects, and on-line quality assessments, and demonstrate the feasibility of this approach by implementing the generic system architecture with laser scanners for object detection.

The relative merits of different population coding schemes have mostly been analyzed in the framework of stimulus reconstruction using Fisher Information. Here, we consider the case of stimulus discrimination in a two alternative forced choice paradigm and compute neurometric functions in terms of the minimal discrimination error and the Jensen-Shannon information to study neural population codes. We first explore the relationship between minimum discrimination error, Jensen-Shannon Information and Fisher Information and show that the discrimination framework is more informative about the coding accuracy than Fisher Information as it defines an error for any pair of possible stimuli. In particular, it includes Fisher Information as a special case. Second, we use the framework to study population codes of angular variables. Specifically, we assess the impact of different noise correlations structures on coding accuracy in long versus short decoding time windows. That is, for long time window we use the common Gaussian noise approximation. To address the case of short time windows we analyze the Ising model with identical noise correlation structure. In this way, we provide a new rigorous framework for assessing the functional consequences of noise correlation structures for the representational accuracy of neural population codes that is in particular applicable to short-time population coding.

Second-order maximum-entropy models have recently gained much interest for describing the statistics of binary spike trains. Here, we extend this approach to take continuous stimuli into account as well. By constraining the joint second-order statistics, we obtain a joint Gaussian-Boltzmann distribution of continuous stimuli and binary neural firing patterns, for which we also compute marginal and conditional distributions. This model has the same computational complexity as pure binary models and fitting it to data is a convex problem. We show that the model can be seen as an extension to the classical spike-triggered average/covariance analysis and can be used as a non-linear method for extracting features which a neural population is sensitive to. Further, by calculating the posterior distribution of stimuli given an observed neural response, the model can be used to decode stimuli and yields a natural spike-train metric. Therefore, extending the framework of maximum-entropy models to continuous variables allows us to gain novel insights into the relationship between the firing patterns of neural ensembles and the stimuli they are processing.

Imaging techniques such as optical imaging of intrinsic signals, 2-photon calcium imaging and voltage sensitive dye imaging can be used to measure the functional organization of visual cortex across different spatial scales. Here, we present Bayesian methods based on Gaussian processes for extracting topographic maps from functional imaging data. In particular, we focus on the estimation of orientation preference maps (OPMs) from intrinsic signal imaging data. We model the underlying map as a bivariate Gaussian process, with a prior covariance function that reflects known properties of OPMs, and a noise covariance adjusted to the data. The posterior mean can be interpreted as an optimally smoothed estimate of the map, and can be used for model based interpolations of the map from sparse measurements. By sampling from the posterior distribution, we can get error bars on statistical properties such as preferred orientations, pinwheel locations or -counts. Finally, the use of an explicit probabilistic model facilitates interpretation of parameters and provides the basis for decoding studies. We demonstrate our model both on simulated data and on intrinsic signaling data from ferret visual cortex.

Generalized linear models are the most commonly used tools to describe the stim- ulus selectivity of sensory neurons. Here we present a Bayesian treatment of such models. Using the expectation propagation algorithm, we are able to approximate the full posterior distribution over all weights. In addition, we use a Laplacian prior to favor sparse solutions. Therefore, stimulus features that do not critically influence neural activity will be assigned zero weights and thus be effectively excluded by the model. This feature selection mechanism facilitates both the in- terpretation of the neuron model as well as its predictive abilities. The posterior distribution can be used to obtain confidence intervals which makes it possible to assess the statistical significance of the solution. In neural data analysis, the available amount of experimental measurements is often limited whereas the pa- rameter space is large. In such a situation, both regularization by a sparsity prior and uncertainty estimates for the model parameters are essential. We apply our method to multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells and use our uncer- tainty estimate to test the statistical significance of functional couplings between neurons. Furthermore we used the sparsity of the Laplace prior to select those filters from a spike-triggered covariance analysis that are most informative about the neural response.