Gaussian processes are a key component of many flexible statistical and machine learning models. However, they exhibit cubic computational complexity and high memory constraints due to the need of inverting and storing a full covariance matrix. To circumvent this, mixtures of Gaussian process experts have been considered where data points are assigned to independent experts, reducing the complexity by allowing inference based on smaller, local covariance matrices. Moreover, mixtures of Gaussian process experts substantially enrich the model's flexibility, allowing for behaviors such as non-stationarity, heteroscedasticity, and discontinuities. In this work, we construct a novel inference approach based on nested sequential Monte Carlo samplers to simultaneously infer both the gating network and Gaussian process expert parameters. This greatly improves inference compared to importance sampling, particularly in settings when a stationary Gaussian process is inappropriate, while still being thoroughly parallelizable.

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look- ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo (MC). The complexity rate of naive MC degrades for nested operations, whereas MLMC is capable of achieving the canonical MC convergence rate for this type of problem, independently of dimension and without any smoothness assumptions. Our theoretical study focuses on the approximation improvements for two- and three-step look-ahead acquisition functions, but, as we discuss, the approach is generalizable in various ways, including beyond the context of BO. Our findings are verified numerically and the benefits of MLMC for BO are illustrated on several benchmark examples. Code is available at https://github.com/Shangda-Yang/MLMCBO.

Abstract Mixtures of experts have become an indispensable tool for flexible modelling in a supervised learning context, allowing not only the mean function but the entire density of the output to change with the inputs. Sparse Gaussian processes (GP) have shown promise as a leading candidate for the experts in such models, and in this article, we propose to design the gating network for selecting the experts from such mixtures of sparse GPs using a deep neural network (DNN). Furthermore, a fast one pass algorithm called Cluster–Classify–Regress (CCR) is leveraged to approximate the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator extremely quickly. This powerful combination of model and algorithm together delivers a novel method which is flexible, robust, and extremely efficient. In particular, the method is able to outperform competing methods in terms of accuracy and uncertainty quantification. The cost is competitive on low-dimensional and small data sets, but is significantly lower for higher-dimensional and big data sets . Iteratively maximizing the distribution of experts given allocations and allocations given experts does not provide significant improvement, which indicates that the algorithm achieves a good approximation to the local MAP estimator very fast. This insight can be useful also in the context of other mixture of experts models.