The wealth of genomic data that was generated during the COVID-19 pandemic provides an exceptional opportunity to obtain information on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, there is great interest to better understand how the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the overdispersion of secondary cases, which can be quantified by the negative binomial dispersion parameter k, changed over time and across regions and viral variants. The aim of our study was to develop a Bayesian framework to infer [Formula: see text] and k from viral sequence data. First, we developed a mathematical model for the distribution of the size of identical sequence clusters, in which we integrated viral transmission, the mutation rate of the virus, and incomplete case-detection. Second, we implemented this model within a Bayesian inference framework, allowing the estimation of [Formula: see text] and k from genomic data only. We validated this model in a simulation study. Third, we identified clusters of identical sequences in all SARS-CoV-2 sequences in 2021 from Switzerland, Denmark, and Germany that were available on GISAID. We obtained monthly estimates of the posterior distribution of [Formula: see text] and k, with the resulting [Formula: see text] estimates slightly lower than estimates obtained by other methods, and k comparable with previous results. We found comparatively higher estimates of k in Denmark which suggests less opportunities for superspreading and more controlled transmission compared to the other countries in 2021. Our model included an estimation of the case detection and sampling probability, but the estimates obtained had large uncertainty, reflecting the difficulty of estimating these parameters simultaneously. Our study presents a novel method to infer information on the transmission of infectious diseases and its heterogeneity using genomic data. With increasing availability of sequences of pathogens in the future, we expect that our method has the potential to provide new insights into the transmission and the overdispersion in secondary cases of other pathogens.

When two influenza viruses co-infect the same cell, they can exchange genome segments in a process known as reassortment. Reassortment is an important source of genetic diversity and is known to have been involved in the emergence of most pandemic influenza strains. However, because of the difficulty in identifying reassortment events from viral sequence data, little is known about their role in the evolution of the seasonal influenza viruses. Here we introduce TreeKnit, a method that infers ancestral reassortment graphs (ARG) from two segment trees. It is based on topological differences between trees, and proceeds in a greedy fashion by finding regions that are compatible in the two trees. Using simulated genealogies with reassortments, we show that TreeKnit performs well in a wide range of settings and that it is as accurate as a more principled bayesian method, while being orders of magnitude faster. Finally, we show that it is possible to use the inferred ARG to better resolve segment trees and to construct more informative visualizations of reassortments.

Summary: Understanding the spread and evolution of pathogens is important for effective public health measures and surveillance. Nextstrain consists of a database of viral genomes, a bioinformatics pipeline for phylodynamics analysis, and an interactive visualization platform. Together these present a real-time view into the evolution and spread of a range of viral pathogens of high public health importance. The visualization integrates sequence data with other data types such as geographic information, serology, or host species. Nextstrain compiles our current understanding into a single accessible location, open to health professionals, epidemiologists, virologists and the public alike. Availability and implementation: All code (predominantly JavaScript and Python) is freely available from github.com/nextstrain and the web-application is available at nextstrain.org.

Estimating the time since infection (TI) in newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients is challenging, but important to understand the epidemiology of the infection.Here we explore the utility of virus diversity estimated by next-generation sequencing (NGS) as novel biomarker by using a recent genome-wide longitudinal dataset obtained from 11 untreated HIV-1-infected patients with known dates of infection.The results were validated on a second dataset from 31 patients.Virus diversity increased linearly with time, particularly at 3rd codon positions, with little inter-patient variation.The precision of the TI estimate improved with increasing sequencing depth, showing that diversity in NGS data yields superior estimates to the number of ambiguous sites in Sanger sequences, which is one of the alternative biomarkers.The full advantage of deep NGS was utilized with continuous diversity measures such as average pairwise distance or site entropy, rather than the fraction of polymorphic sites.The precision depended on the genomic region and codon position and was highest when 3rd codon positions in the entire pol gene were used.For these data, TI estimates had a mean absolute error of around 1 year.The error increased only slightly from around 0.6 years at a TI of 6 months to around 1.1 years at 6 years.Our results show that virus diversity determined by NGS can be used to estimate time since HIV-1 infection many years after the infection, in contrast to most alternative biomarkers.We provide the regression coefficients as well as web tool for TI estimation. Author summaryHIV-1 establishes a chronic infection, which may last for many years before the infected person is diagnosed.The resulting uncertainty in the date of infection leads to difficulties in estimating the number of infected but undiagnosed persons as well as the number of new infections, which is necessary for developing appropriate public health policies and interventions.Such estimates would be much easier if the time since HIV-1 infection for newly diagnosed cases could be accurately estimated.Three types of biomarkers have been shown to contain information about the time since HIV-1 infection, but

UNLABELLED: Seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, allowing them to evade immunity in their human hosts and reinfect previously infected individuals. Similarly, vaccines against seasonal influenza need to be updated frequently to protect against an evolving virus population. We have thus developed a processing pipeline and browser-based visualization that allows convenient exploration and analysis of the most recent influenza virus sequence data. This web-application displays a phylogenetic tree that can be decorated with additional information such as the viral genotype at specific sites, sampling location and derived statistics that have been shown to be predictive of future virus dynamics. In addition, mutation, genotype and clade frequency trajectories are calculated and displayed. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Python and Javascript source code is freely available from https://github.com/blab/nextflu, while the web-application is live at http://nextflu.org. CONTACT: [email protected].

MOTIVATION: The analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of a population with many polymorphic loci is challenging, as a large number of possible genotypes needs to be tracked. In the absence of analytical solutions, forward computer simulations are an important tool in multi-locus population genetics. The run time of standard algorithms to simulate sexual populations increases as 8(L) with the number of loci L, or with the square of the population size N. RESULTS: We have developed algorithms to simulate large populations with arbitrary genetic maps, including multiple crossovers, with a run time that scales as 3(L). If the number of crossovers is restricted to at most one, the run time is reduced to L2(L). The algorithm is based on an analogue of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and allows for arbitrary fitness functions (i.e. any epistasis). In addition, we include a streamlined individual-based framework. The library is implemented as a collection of C++ classes and a Python interface.

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Yet, little is known about the distribution of selection differentials between individual viruses and the impact of single polymorphisms on viral fitness. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time series sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be rho = 1.4+/-0.6 x 10(-5) recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes are available.