Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital for scientific and policy research. However, identifying and evaluating heterogeneous treatment effects pose significant challenges due to the typically unknown subgroup structure. Recently, a novel approach, causal k-means clustering, has emerged to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect by applying the k-means algorithm to unknown counterfactual regression functions. In this paper, we expand upon this framework by integrating hierarchical and density-based clustering algorithms. We propose plug-in estimators which are simple and readily implementable using off-the-shelf algorithms. Unlike k-means clustering, which requires the margin condition, our proposed estimators do not rely on strong structural assumptions on the outcome process. We go on to study their rate of convergence, and show that under the minimal regularity conditions, the additional cost of causal clustering is essentially the estimation error of the outcome regression functions. Our findings significantly extend the capabilities of the causal clustering framework, thereby contributing to the progression of methodologies for identifying homogeneous subgroups in treatment response, consequently facilitating more nuanced and targeted interventions. The proposed methods also open up new avenues for clustering with generic pseudo-outcomes. We explore finite sample properties via simulation, and illustrate the proposed methods in voting and employment projection datasets.

Because of the widespread use of black box prediction methods such as random forests and neural nets, there is renewed interest in developing methods for quantifying variable importance as part of the broader goal of interpretable prediction. A popular approach is to define a variable importance parameter --- known as LOCO (Leave Out COvariates) --- based on dropping covariates from a regression model. This is essentially a nonparametric version of $R^2$. This parameter is very general and can be estimated nonparametrically, but it can be hard to interpret because it is affected by correlation between covariates. We propose a method for mitigating the effect of correlation by defining a modified version of LOCO. This new parameter is difficult to estimate nonparametrically, but we show how to estimate it using semiparametric models.

We derive conditions under which the reconstruction of a target space is topologically correct via the Čech complex or the Vietoris-Rips complex obtained from possibly noisy point cloud data. We provide two novel theoretical results. First, we describe sufficient conditions under which any non-empty intersection of finitely many Euclidean balls intersected with a positive reach set is contractible, so that the Nerve theorem applies for the restricted Čech complex. Second, we demonstrate the homotopy equivalence of a positive $μ$-reach set and its offsets. Applying these results to the restricted Čech complex and using the interleaving relations with the Čech complex (or the Vietoris-Rips complex), we formulate conditions guaranteeing that the target space is homotopy equivalent to the Čech complex (or the Vietoris-Rips complex), in terms of the $μ$-reach. Our results sharpen existing results.

We propose a method for multiple hypothesis testing with familywise error rate (FWER) control, called the i-FWER test. Most testing methods are predefined algorithms that do not allow modifications after observing the data. However, in practice, analysts tend to choose a promising algorithm after observing the data; unfortunately, this violates the validity of the conclusion. The i-FWER test allows much flexibility: a human (or a computer program acting on the human’s behalf) may adaptively guide the algorithm in a data-dependent manner. We prove that our test controls FWER if the analysts adhere to a particular protocol of masking and unmasking. We demonstrate via numerical experiments the power of our test under structured non-nulls, and then explore new forms of masking.

We propose PLLay, a novel topological layer for general deep learning models based on persistence landscapes, in which we can efficiently exploit the underlying topological features of the input data structure. In this work, we show differentiability with respect to layer inputs, for a general persistent homology with arbitrary filtration. Thus, our proposed layer can be placed anywhere in the network and feed critical information on the topological features of input data into subsequent layers to improve the learnability of the networks toward a given task. A task-optimal structure of PLLay is learned during training via backpropagation, without requiring any input featurization or data preprocessing. We provide a novel adaptation for the DTM function-based filtration, and show that the proposed layer is robust against noise and outliers through a stability analysis. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by classification experiments on various datasets.

We derive concentration inequalities for the supremum norm of the difference between a kernel density estimator (KDE) and its point-wise expectation that hold uniformly over the selection of the bandwidth and under weaker conditions on the kernel and the data generating distribution than previously used in the literature. We first propose a novel concept, called the volume dimension, to measure the intrinsic dimension of the support of a probability distribution based on the rates of decay of the probability of vanishing Euclidean balls. Our bounds depend on the volume dimension and generalize the existing bounds derived in the literature. In particular, when the data-generating distribution has a bounded Lebesgue density or is supported on a sufficiently well-behaved lower-dimensional manifold, our bound recovers the same convergence rate depending on the intrinsic dimension of the support as ones known in the literature. At the same time, our results apply to more general cases, such as the ones of distribution with unbounded densities or supported on a mixture of manifolds with different dimensions. Analogous bounds are derived for the derivative of the KDE, of any order. Our results are generally applicable but are especially useful for problems in geometric inference and topological data analysis, including level set estimation, density-based clustering, modal clustering and mode hunting, ridge estimation and persistent homology.

Linear independence testing is a fundamental information-theoretic and statistical problem that can be posed as follows: given n points {(Xi, Yi)}i=1nfrom a p+q dimensional multivariate distribution where Xi∈ ℝpand Yi∈ ℝq, determine whether aTX and bTY are uncorrelated for every a ∈ ℝp; b ∈ ℝqor not. We give minimax lower bound for this problem (when p + q, n → ∞, (p + q)/n ≥ κXY∥F2for any procedure (test) to have non-trivial power, where ΣXYis the cross-covariance matrix of X, Y. We also provide evidence that the lower bound is tight, by connections to two-sample testing and regression when q = 1.

A cluster tree provides an intuitive summary of a density function that reveals essential structure about the high-density clusters. The true cluster tree is estimated from a finite sample from an unknown true density. This paper addresses the basic question of quantifying our uncertainty by assessing the statistical significance of different features of an empirical cluster tree. We first study a variety of metrics that can be used to compare different trees, analyzing their properties and assessing their suitability for our inference task. We then propose methods to construct and summarize confidence sets for the unknown true cluster tree. We introduce a partial ordering on cluster trees which we use to prune some of the statistically insignificant features of the empirical tree, yielding interpretable and parsimonious cluster trees. Finally, we provide a variety of simulations to illustrate our proposed methods and furthermore demonstrate their utility in the analysis of a Graft-versus-Host Disease (GvHD) data set.

This paper is about two related decision theoretic problems, nonparametric two-sample testing and independence testing. There is a belief that two recently proposed solutions, based on kernels and distances between pairs of points, behave well in high-dimensional settings. We identify different sources of misconception that give rise to the above belief. Specifically, we differentiate the hardness of estimation of test statistics from the hardness of testing whether these statistics are zero or not, and explicitly discuss a notion of "fair" alternative hypotheses for these problems as dimension increases. We then demonstrate that the power of these tests actually drops polynomially with increasing dimension against fair alternatives. We end with some theoretical insights and shed light on the median heuristic for kernel bandwidth selection. Our work advances the current understanding of the power of modern nonparametric hypothesis tests in high dimensions.

We consider the problem of clustering data points in high dimensions, i.e., when the number of data points may be much smaller than the number of dimensions. Specifically, we consider a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with two non-spherical Gaussian components, where the clusters are distinguished by only a few relevant dimensions. The method we propose is a combination of a recent approach for learning parameters of a Gaussian mixture model and sparse linear discriminant analysis (LDA). In addition to cluster assignments, the method returns an estimate of the set of features relevant for clustering. Our results indicate that the sample complexity of clustering depends on the sparsity of the relevant feature set, while only scaling logarithmically with the ambient dimension. Further, we require much milder assumptions than existing work on clustering in high dimensions. In particular, we do not require spherical clusters nor necessitate mean separation along relevant dimensions.

We give a comprehensive theoretical characterization of a nonparametric estimator for the L_2^2 divergence between two continuous distributions. We first bound the rate of convergence of our estimator, showing that it is \sqrtn-consistent provided the densities are sufficiently smooth. In this smooth regime, we then show that our estimator is asymptotically normal, construct asymptotic confidence intervals, and establish a Berry-Esséen style inequality characterizing the rate of convergence to normality. We also show that this estimator is minimax optimal.

Nonparametric two sample testing deals with the question of consistently deciding if two distributions are different, given samples from both, without making any parametric assumptions about the form of the distributions. The current literature is split into two kinds of tests - those which are consistent without any assumptions about how the distributions may differ (\textitgeneral alternatives), and those which are designed to specifically test easier alternatives, like a difference in means (\textitmean-shift alternatives). The main contribution of this paper is to explicitly characterize the power of a popular nonparametric two sample test, designed for general alternatives, under a mean-shift alternative in the high-dimensional setting. Specifically, we explicitly derive the power of the linear-time Maximum Mean Discrepancy statistic using the Gaussian kernel, where the dimension and sample size can both tend to infinity at any rate, and the two distributions differ in their means. As a corollary, we find that if the signal-to-noise ratio is held constant, then the test’s power goes to one if the number of samples increases faster than the dimension increases. This is the first explicit power derivation for a general nonparametric test in the high-dimensional setting, and the first analysis of how tests designed for general alternatives perform against easier ones.

Persistent homology is a multiscale method for analyzing the shape of sets and functions from point cloud data arising from an unknown distribution supported on those sets. When the size of the sample is large, direct computation of the persistent homology is prohibitive due to the combinatorial nature of the existing algorithms. We propose to compute the persistent homology of several subsamples of the data and then combine the resulting estimates. We study the risk of two estimators and we prove that the subsampling approach carries stable topological information while achieving a great reduction in computational complexity.

We introduce the concept of coverage risk as an error measure for density ridge estimation.The coverage risk generalizes the mean integrated square error to set estimation.We propose two risk estimators for the coverage risk and we show that we can select tuning parameters by minimizing the estimated risk.We study the rate of convergence for coverage risk and prove consistency of the risk estimators.We apply our method to three simulated datasets and to cosmology data.In all the examples, the proposed method successfully recover the underlying density structure.

We propose and analyse estimators for statistical functionals of one or moredistributions under nonparametric assumptions.Our estimators are derived from the von Mises expansion andare based on the theory of influence functions, which appearin the semiparametric statistics literature.We show that estimators based either on data-splitting or a leave-one-out techniqueenjoy fast rates of convergence and other favorable theoretical properties.We apply this framework to derive estimators for several popular informationtheoretic quantities, and via empirical evaluation, show the advantage of thisapproach over existing estimators.

In active learning, the user sequentially chooses values for feature X and an oracle returns the corresponding label Y. In this paper, we consider the effect of feature noise in active learning, which could arise either because X itself is being measured, or it is corrupted in transmission to the oracle, or the oracle returns the label of a noisy version of the query point. In statistics, feature noise is known as“errors in variables” and has been studied extensively in non-active settings. However, the effect of feature noise in active learning has not been studied before. We consider the well-known Berkson errors-in-variables model with additive uniform noise of width σ. Our simple but revealing setting is that of one-dimensional binary classification setting where the goal is to learn a threshold (point where the probability of a + label crosses half). We deal with regression functions that are antisymmetric in a region of size σaround the threshold and also satisfy Tsybakov’s margin condition around the threshold. We prove minimax lower and upper bounds which demonstrate that when σis smaller than the minimiax active/passive noiseless error derived in Castro & Nowak (2007), then noise has no effect on the rates and one achieves the same noiseless rates. For larger σ, the \textitunflattening of the regression function on convolution with uniform noise, along with its local antisymmetry around the threshold, together yield a behaviour where noise \textitappears to be beneficial. Our key result is that active learning can buy significant improvement over a passive strategy even in the presence of feature noise.

Persistent homology is a widely used tool in Topological Data Analysis that encodes multiscale topological information as a multi-set of points in the plane called a persistence diagram. It is difficult to apply statistical theory directly to a random sample of diagrams. Instead, we can summarize the persistent homology with the persistence landscape, introduced by Bubenik, which converts a diagram into a well-behaved real-valued function. We investigate the statistical properties of landscapes, such as weak convergence of the average landscapes and convergence of the bootstrap. In addition, we introduce an alternate functional summary of persistent homology, which we call the silhouette, and derive an analogous statistical theory.

We consider nonparametric estimation of L_2, Renyi-αand Tsallis-αdivergences between continuous distributions. Our approach is to construct estimators for particular integral functionals of two densities and translate them into divergence estimators. For the integral functionals, our estimators are based on corrections of a preliminary plug-in estimator. We show that these estimators achieve the parametric convergence rate of n^-1/2 when the densities’ smoothness, s, are both at least d/4 where d is the dimension. We also derive minimax lower bounds for this problem which confirm that s > d/4 is necessary to achieve the n^-1/2 rate of convergence. We validate our theoretical guarantees with a number of simulations.

Distribution regression refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + e where f is an unknown regression function and e is a random error. Typically, we do not observe P directly, but rather, we observe a sample from P. In this paper we develop theory and methods for distribution-free versions of distribution regression. This means that we do not make strong distributional assumptions about the error term e and covariate P. We prove that when the effective dimension is small enough (as measured by the doubling dimension), then the excess prediction risk converges to zero with a polynomial rate.

While several papers have investigated computationally and statistically efficient methods for learning Gaussian mixtures, precise minimax bounds for their statistical performance as well as fundamental limits in high-dimensional settings are not well-understood. In this paper, we provide precise information theoretic bounds on the clustering accuracy and sample complexity of learning a mixture of two isotropic Gaussians in high dimensions under small mean separation. If there is a sparse subset of relevant dimensions that determine the mean separation, then the sample complexity only depends on the number of relevant dimensions and mean separation, and can be achieved by a simple computationally efficient procedure. Our results provide the first step of a theoretical basis for recent methods that combine feature selection and clustering.

We investigate the problem of estimating the cluster tree for a density $f$ supported on or near a smooth $d$-dimensional manifold $M$ isometrically embedded in $\mathbb{R}^D$. We study a $k$-nearest neighbor based algorithm recently proposed by Chaudhuri and Dasgupta. Under mild assumptions on $f$ and $M$, we obtain rates of convergence that depend on $d$ only but not on the ambient dimension $D$. We also provide a sample complexity lower bound for a natural class of clustering algorithms that use $D$-dimensional neighborhoods.

We prove a new exponential concentration inequality for a plug-in estimator of the Shannon mutual information. Previous results on mutual information estimation only bounded expected error. The advantage of having the exponential inequality is that, combined with the union bound, we can guarantee accurate estimators of the mutual information for many pairs of random variables simultaneously. As an application, we show how to use such a result to optimally estimate the density function and graph of a distribution which is Markov to a forest graph.

Undirected graphical models encode in a graph $G$ the dependency structure of a random vector $Y$. In many applications, it is of interest to model $Y$ given another random vector $X$ as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the graph $G(x)$ of $Y$ conditioned on $X=x$ as ``graph-valued regression''. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method for estimating $G(x)$ that builds a tree on the $X$ space just as in CART (classification and regression trees), but at each leaf of the tree estimates a graph. We call the method ``Graph-optimized CART'', or Go-CART. We study the theoretical properties of Go-CART using dyadic partitioning trees, establishing oracle inequalities on risk minimization and tree partition consistency. We also demonstrate the application of Go-CART to a meteorological dataset, showing how graph-valued regression can provide a useful tool for analyzing complex data.

A challenging problem in estimating high-dimensional graphical models is to choose the regularization parameter in a data-dependent way. The standard techniques include $K$-fold cross-validation ($K$-CV), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Though these methods work well for low-dimensional problems, they are not suitable in high dimensional settings. In this paper, we present StARS: a new stability-based method for choosing the regularization parameter in high dimensional inference for undirected graphs. The method has a clear interpretation: we use the least amount of regularization that simultaneously makes a graph sparse and replicable under random sampling. This interpretation requires essentially no conditions. Under mild conditions, we show that StARS is partially sparsistent in terms of graph estimation: i.e. with high probability, all the true edges will be included in the selected model even when the graph size asymptotically increases with the sample size. Empirically, the performance of StARS is compared with the state-of-the-art model selection procedures, including $K$-CV, AIC, and BIC, on both synthetic data and a real microarray dataset. StARS outperforms all competing procedures.

This work studies formal utility and privacy guarantees for a simple multiplicative database transformation, where the data are compressed by a random linear or affine transformation, reducing the number of data records substantially, while preserving the number of original input variables.We provide an analysis framework inspired by a recent concept known as differential privacy. Our goal is to show that, despite the general difficulty of achieving the differential privacy guarantee, it is possible to publish synthetic data that are useful for a number of common statistical learning applications. This includes high dimensional sparse regression, principal component analysis (PCA), and other statistical measures based on the covariance of the initial data.

Recent research has studied the role of sparsity in high-dimensional regression and signal reconstruction, establishing theoretical limits for recovering sparse models. This line of work shows that$\ell _{1}$-regularized least squares regression can accurately estimate a sparse linear model from noisy examples in high dimensions. We study a variant of this problem where the original$n$input variables are compressed by a random linear transformation to$m \ll n$examples in$p$dimensions, and establish conditions under which a sparse linear model can be successfully recovered from the compressed data. A primary motivation for this compression procedure is to anonymize the data and preserve privacy by revealing little information about the original data. We characterize the number of projections that are required for$\ell _{1}$-regularized compressed regression to identify the nonzero coefficients in the true model with probability approaching one, a property called “sparsistence.” We also show that$\ell _{1}$-regularized compressed regression asymptotically predicts as well as an oracle linear model, a property called “persistence.” Finally, we characterize the privacy properties of the compression procedure, establishing upper bounds on the mutual information between the compressed and uncompressed data that decay to zero.

We propose new families of models and algorithms for high-dimensional nonparametric learning with joint sparsity constraints. Our approach is based on a regularization method that enforces common sparsity patterns across different function components in a nonparametric additive model. The algorithms employ a coordinate descent approach that is based on a functional soft-thresholding operator. The framework yields several new models, including multi-task sparse additive models, multi-response sparse additive models, and sparse additive multi-category logistic regression. The methods are illustrated with experiments on synthetic data and gene microarray data.

Semi-supervised methods use unlabeled data in addition to labeled data to con- struct predictors. While existing semi-supervised methods have shown some promising empirical performance, their development has been based largely based on heuristics. In this paper we study semi-supervised learning from the viewpoint of minimax theory. Our first result shows that some common methods based on regularization using graph Laplacians do not lead to faster minimax rates of con- vergence. Thus, the estimators that use the unlabeled data do not have smaller risk than the estimators that use only labeled data. We then develop several new approaches that provably lead to improved performance. The statistical tools of minimax analysis are thus used to offer some new perspective on the problem of semi-supervised learning.

We present a new class of models for high-dimensional nonparametric regression and classification called sparse additive models (SpAM). Our methods combine ideas from sparse linear modeling and additive nonparametric regression. We de- rive a method for fitting the models that is effective even when the number of covariates is larger than the sample size. A statistical analysis of the properties of SpAM is given together with empirical results on synthetic and real data, show- ing that SpAM can be effective in fitting sparse nonparametric models in high dimensional data.

Recent research has studied the role of sparsity in high dimensional regression and signal reconstruction, establishing theoretical limits for recovering sparse models from sparse data. In this paper we study a variant of this problem where the original $n$ input variables are compressed by a random linear transformation to $m \ll n$ examples in $p$ dimensions, and establish conditions under which a sparse linear model can be successfully recovered from the compressed data. A primary motivation for this compression procedure is to anonymize the data and preserve privacy by revealing little information about the original data. We characterize the number of random projections that are required for $\ell_1$-regularized compressed regression to identify the nonzero coefficients in the true model with probability approaching one, a property called ``sparsistence.'' In addition, we show that $\ell_1$-regularized compressed regression asymptotically predicts as well as an oracle linear model, a property called ``persistence.'' Finally, we characterize the privacy properties of the compression procedure in information-theoretic terms, establishing upper bounds on the rate of information communicated between the compressed and uncompressed data that decay to zero.

We present an efficient algorithm to actively select queries for learning the boundaries separating a function domain into regions where the func- tion is above and below a given threshold. We develop experiment selec- tion methods based on entropy, misclassification rate, variance, and their combinations, and show how they perform on a number of data sets. We then show how these algorithms are used to determine simultaneously valid 1 − α confidence intervals for seven cosmological parameters. Ex- perimentation shows that the algorithm reduces the computation neces- sary for the parameter estimation problem by an order of magnitude.

We present a method for nonparametric regression that performs bandwidth selection and variable selection simultaneously. The approach is based on the technique of incrementally decreasing the bandwidth in directions where the gradient of the estimator with respect to bandwidth is large. When the unknown function satisfies a sparsity condition, our approach avoids the curse of dimensionality, achieving the optimal minimax rate of convergence, up to logarithmic factors, as if the relevant variables were known in advance. The method--called rodeo (regularization of derivative expectation operator)--conducts a sequence of hypothesis tests, and is easy to implement. A modified version that replaces hard with soft thresholding effectively solves a sequence of lasso problems.

We propose an efficient programmable transmit-receive digital filter structure consisting of a pulse shaping filter (PSF) and a cascaded integrator-comb (CIC) filter which is applicable to variable-rate digital communication systems. The CIC structure is a hardware-efficient means of constructing programmable interpolation and decimation filters, but it introduces a large amount of intersymbol interference (ISI). We solve this problem by proposing a filter design method that determines the PSF coefficients such that the cascade of the PSF and CIC filter exhibits the desired frequency response.