Traffic prediction is an essential task in intelligent transportation systems dealing with complex and dynamic spatio-temporal correlations. To date, most work is focused on point estimation models, which only output a single value w.r.t an attribute of traffic data at a time, falling short of depicting diverse situations and uncertainty in future. Besides, most methods are not flexible enough to handle real complex traffic scenarios, involving missing values and non-uniformly sampled data. The interactions among different attributes of traffic data are also rarely explored explicitly. In this paper, we focus on probabilistic estimation in traffic prediction tasks, proposing a spatio-temporal multivariate probabilistic predictive model to estimate the distributions of traffic data. Specifically, we devise a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion graph block to extract spatio-temporal correlations of multiple traffic attributes at different locations. A multi-graph fusion module is designed to capture time-varying spatial relationships. We estimate the joint distributions of missing traffic data using copulas. The proposed model can simultaneously perform traffic forecasting and interpolation tasks with non-uniformly sampled data. Our experiments on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the advantages of our model over the state-of-the-art1.

With the development of the Intelligent Transportation Systems, a great deal of work has been proposed to tackle traffic prediction tasks. Despite their good performance, most traffic prediction models are point estimation models, lacking the capability to estimate the uncertainties of future traffic data, which is crucial in practical traffic decision-making. Aiming at this problem, we combine the probabilistic estimation capabilities of conditional normalizing flows with the spatio-temporal relationship learning of spatio-temporal graphs, leading to a Spatio-Temporal Graph Normalizing Flow (STGNF) model to estimate the distribution of future traffic data. We are the first to employ the conditional normalizing flows as the backbone for probabilistic traffic prediction. Then we design a spatio-temporal graph conditional fusion network to learn the spatio-temporal relationships between future and historical traffic data, which are provided to the conditional normalizing flows as conditional information. Extensive experiments on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that our proposed model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a growing significant public health problem and prognosis of outcome is difficult due to the multitude of factors that underlie the heterogeneity of TBI. Prognosis aims to forecast the likely development of the disease and significantly affects patient's recovery and healthcare. Traditionally, TBI prognosis relies on the physician's insights and their empirical knowledge which makes it infeasible for large-scale implementation. Existing methods utilize a single modality (i.e., either clinical data or Computed Tomography scan images) for TBI prognosis, leaving crucial information from multi-modal data largely underexplored. To address this concern, we explore a Multi-modal Structure-aware Field-wise learning (MSF) method that is capable of mining complex correlations between multi-modal data and TBI outcomes for prognosis on a real-world dataset. Specifically, we develop a High-Level Structure-Aware (HSA) module to capture the structure information of the multilayered clinical data. Experimental results on the publicly available TRACK-TBI dataset demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of our proposed method, by achieving the top-3 accuracy of 96.07% and 98.13% for 3-month and 6-month predictions after injury, respectively.

Many real-world problems deal with collections of data with missing values, e.g., RNA sequential analytics, image completion, video processing, etc. Usually, such missing data is a serious impediment to a good learning achievement. Existing methods tend to use a universal model for all incomplete data, resulting in a suboptimal model for each missingness pattern. In this paper, we present a general model for learning with incomplete data. The proposed model can be appropriately adjusted with different missingness patterns, alleviating competitions between data. Our model is based on observable features only, so it does not incur errors from data imputation. We further introduce a low-rank constraint to promote the generalization ability of our model. Analysis of the generalization error justifies our idea theoretically. In additional, a subgradient method is proposed to optimize our model with a proven convergence rate. Experiments on different types of data show that our method compares favorably with typical imputation strategies and other state-of-the-art models for incomplete data. More importantly, our method can be seamlessly incorporated into the neural networks with the best results achieved. The source code is released at https://github.com/YS-GONG/missingness-patterns.

Traditional approaches for learning on categorical data underexploit the dependencies between columns (a.k.a. fields) in a dataset because they rely on the embedding of data points driven alone by the classification/regression loss. In contrast, we propose a novel method for learning on categorical data with the goal of exploiting dependencies between fields. Instead of modelling statistics of features globally (i.e., by the covariance matrix of features), we learn a global field dependency matrix that captures dependencies between fields and then we refine the global field dependency matrix at the instance-wise level with different weights (so-called local dependency modelling) w.r.t. each field to improve the modelling of the field dependencies. Our algorithm exploits the meta-learning paradigm, i.e., the dependency matrices are refined in the inner loop of the meta-learning algorithm without the use of labels, whereas the outer loop intertwines the updates of the embedding matrix (the matrix performing projection) and global dependency matrix in a supervised fashion (with the use of labels). Our method is simple yet it outperforms several state-of-the-art methods on six popular dataset benchmarks. Detailed ablation studies provide additional insights into our method.

As a developing trend of urbanization, massive amounts of urban statistical data with multiple views (e.g., views of Population and Economy) are increasingly collected and benefited to diverse domains, including transportation service, regional analysis, etc. Unfortunately, these statistical data that are divided into fine-grained regions usually suffer from missing value problem during the acquisition and storage processes. It is mianly caused by some inevitable circumstances, e.g., the document defacement, statistical difficulty in remote districts, and inaccurate information cleaning, etc. Those missing entries which make valuable information invisible may distort the further urban analysis. To improve the quality of missing data imputation, we propose an improved spatial multi-kernel learning method to guide the imputation process incorporating with the adaptive-weight non-negative matrix factorization strategy. Our model takes into account the regional latent similarities and the real geographical positions as well as the correlations among various views that are able to complete missing values precisely. We conduct intensive experiments to evaluate our method and compare with other state-of-the-art approaches on real-world datasets. All the empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms all the other state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our model represents a strong generalization ability across multiple cities.

Non-linear activation functions, e.g., Sigmoid, ReLU, and Tanh, have achieved great success in neural networks (NNs). Due to the complex non-linear characteristic of samples, the objective of those activation functions is to project samples from their original feature space to a linear separable feature space. This phenomenon ignites our interest in exploring whether all features need to be transformed by all nonlinear functions in current typical NNs, i.e., whether there exists a part of features arriving at the linear separable feature space in the intermediate layers, that does not require further non-linear variation but an affine transformation instead. To validate the above hypothesis, we explore the problem of linear feature disentanglement for neural networks in this paper. Specifically, we devise a learnable mask module to distinguish between linear and non-linear features. Through our designed experiments we found that some features reach the linearly separable space earlier than the others and can be detached partly from the NNs. The explored method also provides a readily feasible pruning strategy which barely affects the performance of the original model. We conduct our experiments on four datasets and present promising results.

As a key mission of the modern traffic management, crowd flow prediction (CFP) benefits in many tasks of intelligent transportation services. However, most existing techniques focus solely on forecasting entrance and exit flows of metro stations that do not provide enough useful knowledge for traffic management. In practical applications, managers desperately want to solve the problem of getting the potential passenger distributions to help authorities improve transport services, termed as crowd flow distribution (CFD) forecasts. Therefore, to improve the quality of transportation services, we proposed three spatiotemporal models to effectively address the network-wide CFD prediction problem based on the online latent space (OLS) strategy. Our models take into account the various trending patterns and climate influences, as well as the inherent similarities among different stations that are able to predict both CFD and entrance and exit flows precisely. In our online systems, a sequence of CFD snapshots is used as the training data. The latent attribute evolutions of different metro stations can be learned from the previous trend and do the next prediction based on the transition patterns. All the empirical results demonstrate that the three developed models outperform all the other state-of-the-art approaches on three large-scale real-world datasets.

People’s daily information sharing and acquisition through the Internet has become more and more popular. The comprehensive multimodal marketing advertorial generated by ‘We Media’ accounts besides the normal social news is gaining its importance on social media platforms. In order to achieve effective advertising, the marketing intent understanding is a key step towards generating targeted advertising strategies (push advertorials to specific people at a specific time). However, advertorials in real are usually designed to pretend as normal social news with a wide range of contents. This poses big challenges to the platforms on accurately recognizing and analyzing the marketing intents behind the advertorials. As a pioneering study, we address this new problem of multimodal-based marketing intent analysis and answer three core questions: (1) does a piece of social news contain marketing intent? (2) what is the topic of marketing intent? (3) what is the extent of marketing intent? Towards this end, we propose a novel Multimodal-based Marketing Intent Analysis scheme (MMIA) to estimate the marketing intent embedded in the multimodal contents. Specifically, a novel supervised neural autoregressive model (SmiDocNADE) is proposed to enhance the discriminative capacity of the learned hidden features so that a single system is capable of solving the three questions. In order to effectively model inter-correlations between images and text in advertorials, we fuse multimodal data and extract features by Graph Convolution Networks as an enhancement to SmiDocNADE. The extensive evaluations demonstrate the advantages of our proposed system in multimodal-based marketing intent analysis from multiple aspects.

Commercial advertorials shared on websites are usually designed to pretend as normal social news for commercial benefits. The analysis of the commercial intents embedded in advertorials can greatly help media platforms personalize content. However, commercial intents are not only concealed in news texts but also conveyed by news images explicitly or implicitly. Consequently, how to effectively extract and incorporate the crucial cues of multiple modalities has been emerging as an important but challenging problem. Motivated by this observation, we propose a framework Multimodal Advertorial Discovery Model (MADM) to estimate the commercial intents embedded in the multimodal social news. Specifically, a novel Cross-graph Fusion (CGF) strategy is developed to achieve a soft assignment to incorporate images and text and generate comprehensive multimodal representations. The extensive evaluations demonstrate the superiority of our proposed system in multimodal-based advertorial detection and analysis.

Recently, practical applications for passenger flow prediction have brought many benefits to urban transportation development. With the development of urbanization, a real-world demand from transportation managers is to construct a new metro station in one city area that never planned before. Authorities are interested in the picture of the future volume of commuters before constructing a new station, and estimate how would it affect other areas. In this paper, this specific problem is termed as potential passenger flow (PPF) prediction, which is a novel and important study connected with urban computing and intelligent transportation systems. For example, an accurate PPF predictor can provide invaluable knowledge to designers, such as the advice of station scales and influences on other areas, etc. To address this problem, we propose a multi-view localized correlation learning method. The core idea of our strategy is to learn the passenger flow correlations between the target areas and their localized areas with adaptive-weight. To improve the prediction accuracy, other domain knowledge is involved via a multi-view learning process. We conduct intensive experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of our method with real-world official transportation datasets. The results demonstrate that our method can achieve excellent performance compared with other available baselines. Besides, our method can provide an effective solution to the cold-start problem in the recommender system as well, which proved by its outperformed experimental results.

Inspired by the fact that spreading and collecting information through the Internet becomes the norm, more and more people choose to post for-profit contents (images and texts) in social networks. Due to the difficulty of network censors, malicious marketing may be capable of harming the society. Therefore, it is meaningful to detect marketing intentions online automatically. However, gaps between multimodal data make it difficult to fuse images and texts for content marketing detection. To this end, this paper proposes Two-Branch Collaborative Graph Neural Networks to collaboratively represent multimodal data by Graph Convolution Networks (GCNs) in an end-to-end fashion. We first separately embed groups of images and texts by GCNs layers from two views and further adopt the proposed multimodal fusion strategy to learn the graph representation collaboratively. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves superior graph classification performance for marketing intention detection.

Large volumes of urban statistical data with multiple views imply rich knowledge about the development degree of cities. These data present crucial statistics which play an irreplaceable role in the regional analysis and urban computing. In reality, however, the statistical data divided into fine-grained regions usually suffer from missing data problems. Those missing values hide the useful information that may result in a distorted data analysis. Thus, in this paper, we propose a spatial missing data imputation method for multi-view urban statistical data. To address this problem, we exploit an improved spatial multi-kernel clustering method to guide the imputation process cooperating with an adaptive-weight non-negative matrix factorization strategy. Intensive experiments are conducted with other state-of-the-art approaches on six real-world urban statistical datasets. The results not only show the superiority of our method against other comparative methods on different datasets, but also represent a strong generalizability of our model.

To distinguish the subtle differences among fine-grained categories, a large amount of well-labeled images are typically required. However, manual annotations for fine-grained categories is an extremely difficult task as it usually has a high demand for professional knowledge. To this end, we propose to directly leverage web images for fine-grained visual recognition. Our work mainly focuses on two critical issues including "label noise" and "domain mismatch" in the web images. Specifically, we propose an end-to-end deep denoising network (DDN) model to jointly solve these problems in the process of web images selection. To verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we first collect web images by using the labels in fine-grained datasets. Then we apply the proposed deep denoising network model for noise removal and domain mismatch alleviation. We leverage the selected web images as the training set for fine-grained categorization models learning. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate state-of-the-art performance gained by our proposed approach, which, at the same time, delivers a new pipeline for fine-grained visual categorization that is to be highly effective for real-world applications.

We propose a new method for learning with multi-field categorical data. Multi-field categorical data are usually collected over many heterogeneous groups. These groups can reflect in the categories under a field. The existing methods try to learn a universal model that fits all data, which is challenging and inevitably results in learning a complex model. In contrast, we propose a field-wise learning method leveraging the natural structure of data to learn simple yet efficient one-to-one field-focused models with appropriate constraints. In doing this, the models can be fitted to each category and thus can better capture the underlying differences in data. We present a model that utilizes linear models with variance and low-rank constraints, to help it generalize better and reduce the number of parameters. The model is also interpretable in a field-wise manner. As the dimensionality of multi-field categorical data can be very high, the models applied to such data are mostly over-parameterized. Our theoretical analysis can potentially explain the effect of over-parametrization on the generalization of our model. It also supports the variance constraints in the learning objective. The experiment results on two large-scale datasets show the superior performance of our model, the trend of the generalization error bound, and the interpretability of learning outcomes. Our code is available at https://github.com/lzb5600/Field-wise-Learning.

Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Meanwhile, they are also one of the most fragile parts in railway systems. Points failures cause a large portion of railway incidents. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time interval or raised after the equipment failures. Instead, it would be of great value if we could forecast points' failures and take action beforehand, minimising any negative effect. To date, most of the existing prediction methods are either lab-based or relying on specially installed sensors which makes them infeasible for large-scale implementation. Besides, they often use data from only one source. We, therefore, explore a new way that integrates multi-source data which are ready to hand to fulfil this task. We conducted our case study based on Sydney Trains rail network which is an extensive network of passenger and freight railways. Unfortunately, the real-world data are usually incomplete due to various reasons, e.g., faults in the database, operational errors or transmission faults. Besides, railway points differ in their locations, types and some other properties, which means it is hard to use a unified model to predict their failures. Aiming at this challenging task, we firstly constructed a dataset from multiple sources and selected key features with the help of domain experts. In this paper, we formulate our prediction task as a multiple kernel learning problem with missing kernels. We present a robust multiple kernel learning algorithm for predicting points failures. Our model takes into account the missing pattern of data as well as the inherent variance on different sets of railway points. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm compared with other state-of-the-art methods.

Crowd Flow Prediction (CFP) is one major challenge in the intelligent transportation systems of the Sydney Trains Network. However, most advanced CFP methods only focus on entrance and exit flows at the major stations or a few subway lines, neglecting Crowd Flow Distribution (CFD) forecasting problem across the entire city network. CFD prediction plays an irreplaceable role in metro management as a tool that can help authorities plan route schedules and avoid congestion. In this paper, we propose three online non-negative matrix factorization (ONMF) models. ONMF-AO incorporates an Average Optimization strategy that adapts to stable passenger flows. ONMF-MR captures the Most Recent trends to achieve better performance when sudden changes in crowd flow occur. The Hybrid model, ONMF-H, integrates both ONMF-AO and ONMF-MR to exploit the strengths of each model in different scenarios and enhance the models' applicability to real-world situations. Given a series of CFD snapshots, both models learn the latent attributes of the train stations and, therefore, are able to capture transition patterns from one timestamp to the next by combining historic guidance. Intensive experiments on a large-scale, real-world dataset containing transactional data demonstrate the superiority of our ONMF models.