Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), in which the agent optimizes expected payoffs while keeping the expected cost below a given threshold, are the leading framework for safe sequential decision making under stochastic uncertainty. Among algorithms for planning and learning in CMDPs, methods based on Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) have particular importance due to their efficiency and extendibility to more complex frameworks (such as partially observable settings and games). However, current MCTS-based methods for CMDPs either struggle with finding safe (i.e., constraint-satisfying) policies, or are too conservative and do not find valuable policies. We introduce Threshold UCT (T-UCT), an online MCTS-based algorithm for CMDP planning. Unlike previous MCTS-based CMDP planners, T-UCT explicitly estimates Pareto curves of cost-utility trade-offs throughout the search tree, using these together with a novel action selection and threshold update rule to seek safe and valuable policies. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods from the literature.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a canonical model to reason about decision making within a stochastic environment. We study a fundamental class of infinite MDPs: one-counter MDPs (OC-MDPs). They extend finite MDPs via an associated counter taking natural values, thus inducing an infinite MDP over the set of configurations (current state and counter value). We consider two characteristic objectives: reaching a target state (state-reachability), and reaching a target state with counter value zero (selective termination). The synthesis problem for the latter is not known to be decidable and connected to major open problems in number theory. Furthermore, even seemingly simple strategies (e.g., memoryless ones) in OC-MDPs might be impossible to build in practice (due to the underlying infinite configuration space): we need finite, and preferably small, representations. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce two natural classes of concisely represented strategies based on a (possibly infinite) partition of counter values in intervals. For both classes, and both objectives, we study the verification problem (does a given strategy ensure a high enough probability for the objective?), and two synthesis problems (does there exist such a strategy?): one where the interval partition is fixed as input, and one where it is only parameterized. We develop a generic approach based on a compression of the induced infinite MDP that yields decidability in all cases, with all complexities within PSPACE.

Abstract We consider the problem of refuting equivalence of probabilistic programs, i.e., the problem of proving that two probabilistic programs induce different output distributions. We study this problem in the context of programs with conditioning (i.e., with observe and score statements), where the output distribution is conditioned by the event that all the observe statements along a run evaluate to true, and where the probability densities of different runs may be updated via the score statements. Building on a recent work on programs without conditioning, we present a new equivalence refutation method for programs with conditioning. Our method is based on weighted restarting, a novel transformation of probabilistic programs with conditioning to the output equivalent probabilistic programs without conditioning that we introduce in this work. Our method is the first to be both a) fully automated, and b) providing provably correct answers. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on a set of programs from the probabilistic inference literature.

We consider the problems of statically refuting equivalence and similarity of output distributions defined by a pair of probabilistic programs. Equivalence and similarity are two fundamental relational properties of probabilistic programs that are essential for their correctness both in implementation and in compilation. In this work, we present a new method for static equivalence and similarity refutation. Our method refutes equivalence and similarity by computing a function over program outputs whose expected value with respect to the output distributions of two programs is different. The function is computed simultaneously with an upper expectation supermartingale and a lower expectation submartingale for the two programs, which we show to together provide a formal certificate for refuting equivalence and similarity. To the best of our knowledge, our method is the first approach to relational program analysis to offer the combination of the following desirable features: (1) it is fully automated, (2) it is applicable to infinite-state probabilistic programs, and (3) it provides formal guarantees on the correctness of its results. We implement a prototype of our method and our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method to refute equivalence and similarity for a number of examples collected from the literature. CCS Concepts: • Theory of computation → Program verification; Program analysis; • Software and its engineering → Formal software verification; • Mathematics of computing → Probability and statistics .

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) modeling an agent that needs a supply of a certain resource (e.g., electricity stored in batteries) to operate correctly. The resource is consumed by the agent's actions and can be replenished only in certain states. The agent aims to minimize the expected cost of reaching some goal while preventing resource exhaustion, a problem we call resource-constrained goal optimization (RSGO). We take a two-step approach to the RSGO problem. First, using formal methods techniques, we design an algorithm computing a shield for a given scenario: a procedure that observes the agent and prevents it from using actions that might eventually lead to resource exhaustion. Second, we augment the POMCP heuristic search algorithm for POMDP planning with our shields to obtain an algorithm solving the RSGO problem. We implement our algorithm and present experiments showing its applicability to benchmarks from the literature.

We consider the problem of synthesizing resilient and stochastically stable strategies for systems of cooperating agents striving to minimize the expected time between consecutive visits to selected locations in a known environment. A strategy profile is resilient if it retains its functionality even if some of the agents fail, and stochastically stable if the visiting time variance is small. We design a novel specification language for objectives involving resilience and stochastic stability, and we show how to efficiently compute strategy profiles (for both autonomous and coordinated agents) optimizing these objectives. Our experiments show that our strategy synthesis algorithm can construct highly non-trivial and efficient strategy profiles for environments with general topology.

We consider the almost-sure (a.s.) termination problem for probabilistic programs, which are a stochastic extension of classical imperative programs. Lexicographic ranking functions provide a sound and practical approach for termination of non-probabilistic programs, and their extension to probabilistic programs is achieved via lexicographic ranking supermartingales (LexRSMs). However, LexRSMs introduced in the previous work have a limitation that impedes their automation: all of their components have to be non-negative in all reachable states. This might result in a LexRSM not existing even for simple terminating programs. Our contributions are twofold. First, we introduce a generalization of LexRSMs that allows for some components to be negative. This standard feature of non-probabilistic termination proofs was hitherto not known to be sound in the probabilistic setting, as the soundness proof requires a careful analysis of the underlying stochastic process. Second, we present polynomial-time algorithms using our generalized LexRSMs for proving a.s. termination in broad classes of linear-arithmetic programs.

We consider the problem of efficient patrolling strategy adaptation in a changing environment where the topology of Defender’s moves and the importance of guarded targets change unpredictably. The Defender must instantly switch to a new strategy optimized for the new environment, not disrupting the ongoing patrolling task, and the new strategy must be computed promptly under all circumstances. Since strategy switching may cause unintended security risks compromising the achieved protection, our solution includes mechanisms for detecting and mitigating this problem. The efficiency of our framework is evaluated experimentally.

We present a new approach to proving non-termination of non-deterministic integer programs. Our technique is rather simple but efficient. It relies on a purely syntactic reversal of the program's transition system followed by a constraint-based invariant synthesis with constraints coming from both the original and the reversed transition system. The latter task is performed by a simple call to an off-the-shelf SMT-solver, which allows us to leverage the latest advances in SMT-solving. Moreover, our method offers a combination of features not present (as a whole) in previous approaches: it handles programs with non-determinism, provides relative completeness guarantees and supports programs with polynomial arithmetic. The experiments performed with our prototype tool RevTerm show that our approach, despite its simplicity and stronger theoretical guarantees, is at least on par with the state-of-the-art tools, often achieving a non-trivial improvement under a proper configuration of its parameters.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the defacto framework for sequential decision making in the presence of stochastic uncertainty. A classical optimization criterion for MDPs is to maximize the expected discounted-sum payoff, which ignores low probability catastrophic events with highly negative impact on the system. On the other hand, risk-averse policies require the probability of undesirable events to be below a given threshold, but they do not account for optimization of the expected payoff. We consider MDPs with discounted-sum payoff with failure states which represent catastrophic outcomes. The objective of risk-constrained planning is to maximize the expected discounted-sum payoff among risk-averse policies that ensure the probability to encounter a failure state is below a desired threshold. Our main contribution is an efficient risk-constrained planning algorithm that combines UCT-like search with a predictor learned through interaction with the MDP (in the style of AlphaZero) and with a risk-constrained action selection via linear programming. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with experiments on classical MDPs from the literature, including benchmarks with an order of 106 states.

Consumption Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are probabilistic decision-making models of resource-constrained systems. In a CMDP, the controller possesses a certain amount of a critical resource, such as electric power. Each action of the controller can consume some amount of the resource. Resource replenishment is only possible in special reload states, in which the resource level can be reloaded up to the full capacity of the system. The task of the controller is to prevent resource exhaustion, i.e. ensure that the available amount of the resource stays non-negative, while ensuring an additional linear-time property. We study the complexity of strategy synthesis in consumption MDPs with almost-sure Büchi objectives. We show that the problem can be solved in polynomial time. We implement our algorithm and show that it can efficiently solve CMDPs modelling real-world scenarios.

Value iteration is a fundamental algorithm for solving Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). It computes the maximal $n$-step payoff by iterating $n$ times a recurrence equation which is naturally associated to the MDP. At the same time, value iteration provides a policy for the MDP that is optimal on a given finite horizon $n$. In this paper, we settle the computational complexity of value iteration. We show that, given a horizon $n$ in binary and an MDP, computing an optimal policy is EXP-complete, thus resolving an open problem that goes back to the seminal 1987 paper on the complexity of MDPs by Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis. As a stepping stone, we show that it is EXP-complete to compute the $n$-fold iteration (with $n$ in binary) of a function given by a straight-line program over the integers with $\max$ and $+$ as operators.

Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with discounted-sum payoff are a standard framework to model a wide range of problems related to decision making under uncertainty. Traditionally, the goal has been to obtain policies that optimize the expectation of the discounted-sum payoff. A key drawback of the expectation measure is that even low probability events with extreme payoff can significantly affect the expectation, and thus the obtained policies are not necessarily risk averse. An alternate approach is to optimize the probability that the payoff is above a certain threshold, which allows to obtain risk-averse policies, but ignore optimization of the expectation. We consider the expectation optimization with probabilistic guarantee (EOPG) problem where the goal is to optimize the expectation ensuring that the payoff is above a given threshold with at least a specified probability. We present several results on the EOPG problem, including the first algorithm to solve it.

Vector Addition Systems with States (VASS) provide a well-known and fundamental model for the analysis of concurrent processes, parameterized systems, and are also used as abstract models of programs in resource bound analysis. In this paper we study the problem of obtaining asymptotic bounds on the termination time of a given VASS. In particular, we focus on the practically important case of obtaining polynomial bounds on termination time. Our main contributions are as follows: First, we present a polynomial-time algorithm for deciding whether a given VASS has a linear asymptotic complexity. We also show that if the complexity of a VASS is not linear, it is at least quadratic. Second, we classify VASS according to quantitative properties of their cycles. We show that certain singularities in these properties are the key reason for non-polynomial asymptotic complexity of VASS. In absence of singularities, we show that the asymptotic complexity is always polynomial and of the form Θ(nk), for some integer k ≤ d, where d is the dimension of the VASS. We present a polynomial-time algorithm computing the optimal k. For general VASS, the same algorithm, which is based on a complete technique for the construction of ranking functions in VASS, produces a valid lower bound, i.e., a k such that the termination complexity is Ω(nk). Our results are based on new insights into the geometry of VASS dynamics, which hold the potential for further applicability to VASS analysis.

Probabilistic programs extend classical imperative programs with real-valued random variables and random branching. The most basic liveness property for such programs is the termination property. The qualitative (aka almost-sure) termination problem asks whether a given program program terminates with probability 1. While ranking functions provide a sound and complete method for non-probabilistic programs, the extension of them to probabilistic programs is achieved via ranking supermartingales (RSMs). Although deep theoretical results have been established about RSMs, their application to probabilistic programs with nondeterminism has been limited only to programs of restricted control-flow structure. For non-probabilistic programs, lexicographic ranking functions provide a compositional and practical approach for termination analysis of real-world programs. In this work we introduce lexicographic RSMs and show that they present a sound method for almost-sure termination of probabilistic programs with nondeterminism. We show that lexicographic RSMs provide a tool for compositional reasoning about almost-sure termination, and for probabilistic programs with linear arithmetic they can be synthesized efficiently (in polynomial time). We also show that with additional restrictions even asymptotic bounds on expected termination time can be obtained through lexicographic RSMs. Finally, we present experimental results on benchmarks adapted from previous work to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

In this article, we consider the termination problem of probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. The questions concerned are: qualitative ones that ask (i) whether the program terminates with probability 1 (almost-sure termination) and (ii) whether the expected termination time is finite (finite termination); and quantitative ones that ask (i) to approximate the expected termination time (expectation problem) and (ii) to compute a bound B such that the probability not to terminate after B steps decreases exponentially (concentration problem). To solve these questions, we utilize the notion of ranking supermartingales, which is a powerful approach for proving termination of probabilistic programs. In detail, we focus on algorithmic synthesis of linear ranking-supermartingales over affine probabilistic programs (A pps ) with both angelic and demonic non-determinism. An important subclass of A pps is LRA pp which is defined as the class of all A pps over which a linear ranking-supermartingale exists. Our main contributions are as follows. Firstly, we show that the membership problem of LRA pp (i) can be decided in polynomial time for A pps with at most demonic non-determinism, and (ii) is NP-hard and in PSPACE for A pps with angelic non-determinism. Moreover, the NP-hardness result holds already for A pps without probability and demonic non-determinism. Secondly, we show that the concentration problem over LRA pp can be solved in the same complexity as for the membership problem of LRA pp . Finally, we show that the expectation problem over LRA pp can be solved in 2EXPTIME and is PSPACE-hard even for A pps without probability and non-determinism (i.e., deterministic programs). Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to answer the qualitative and quantitative questions over A pps with at most demonic non-determinism.

A standard objective in partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) is to find a policy that maximizes the expected discounted-sum payoff. However, such policies may still permit unlikely but highly undesirable outcomes, which is problematic especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in POMDPs where the goal is to maximize the probability to ensure that the payoff is at least a given threshold, but these approaches do not consider any optimization beyond satisfying this threshold constraint. In this work we go beyond both the “expectation” and “threshold” approaches and consider a “guaranteed payoff optimization (GPO)” problem for POMDPs, where we are given a threshold t and the objective is to find a policy σ such that a) each possible outcome of σ yields a discounted-sum payoff of at least t, and b) the expected discounted-sum payoff of σ is optimal (or near-optimal) among all policies satisfying a). We present a practical approach to tackle the GPO problem and evaluate it on standard POMDP benchmarks.

Termination is one of the basic liveness properties, and we study the termination problem for probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. Previous works focused on the qualitative problem that asks whether an input program terminates with probability 1 (almost-sure termination). A powerful approach for this qualitative problem is the notion of ranking supermartingales with respect to a given set of invariants. The quantitative problem (probabilistic termination) asks for bounds on the termination probability, and this problem has not been addressed yet. A fundamental and conceptual drawback of the existing approaches to address probabilistic termination is that even though the supermartingales consider the probabilistic behaviour of the programs, the invariants are obtained completely ignoring the probabilistic aspect (i.e., the invariants are obtained considering all behaviours with no information about the probability).

We study graphs and two-player games in which rewards are assigned to states, and the goal of the players is to satisfy or dissatisfy certain property of the generated outcome, given as a mean payoff property. Since the notion of mean-payoff does not reflect possible fluctuations from the mean-payoff along a run, we propose definitions and algorithms for capturing the stability of the system, and give algorithms for deciding if a given mean payoff and stability objective can be ensured in the system.

In this paper, we consider termination of probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. The questions concerned are: 1. qualitative ones that ask (i) whether the program terminates with probability 1 (almost-sure termination) and (ii) whether the expected termination time is finite (finite termination); 2. quantitative ones that ask (i) to approximate the expected termination time (expectation problem) and (ii) to compute a bound B such that the probability to terminate after B steps decreases exponentially (concentration problem). To solve these questions, we utilize the notion of ranking supermartingales which is a powerful approach for proving termination of probabilistic programs. In detail, we focus on algorithmic synthesis of linear ranking-supermartingales over affine probabilistic programs (APP's) with both angelic and demonic non-determinism. An important subclass of APP's is LRAPP which is defined as the class of all APP's over which a linear ranking-supermartingale exists. Our main contributions are as follows. Firstly, we show that the membership problem of LRAPP (i) can be decided in polynomial time for APP's with at most demonic non-determinism, and (ii) is NP-hard and in PSPACE for APP's with angelic non-determinism; moreover, the NP-hardness result holds already for APP's without probability and demonic non-determinism. Secondly, we show that the concentration problem over LRAPP can be solved in the same complexity as for the membership problem of LRAPP. Finally, we show that the expectation problem over LRAPP can be solved in 2EXPTIME and is PSPACE-hard even for APP's without probability and non-determinism (i.e., deterministic programs). Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to answer the qualitative and quantitative questions over APP's with at most demonic non-determinism.

We study the pattern frequency vector for runs in probabilistic Vector Addition Systems with States (pVASS). Intuitively, each configuration of a given pVASS is assigned one of finitely many patterns, and every run can thus be seen as an infinite sequence of these patterns. The pattern frequency vector assigns to each run the limit of pattern frequencies computed for longer and longer prefixes of the run. If the limit does not exist, then the vector is undefined. We show that for one-counter pVASS, the pattern frequency vector is defined and takes one of finitely many values for almost all runs. Further, these values and their associated probabilities can be approximated up to an arbitrarily small relative error in polynomial time. For stable two-counter pVASS, we show the same result, but we do not provide any upper complexity bound. As a byproduct of our study, we discover counterexamples falsifying some classical results about stochastic Petri nets published in the 80s.

Solvency games, introduced by Berger et al., provide an abstract framework for modelling decisions of a risk-averse investor, whose goal is to avoid ever going broke. We study a new variant of this model, where, in addition to stochastic environment and fixed increments and decrements to the investor's wealth, we introduce interest, which is earned or paid on the current level of savings or debt, respectively. We study problems related to the minimum initial wealth sufficient to avoid bankruptcy (i.e. steady decrease of the wealth) with probability at least p. We present an exponential time algorithm which approximates this minimum initial wealth, and show that a polynomial time approximation is not possible unless P=NP. For the qualitative case, i.e. p=1, we show that the problem whether a given number is larger than or equal to the minimum initial wealth belongs to NP \cap coNP, and show that a polynomial time algorithm would yield a polynomial time algorithm for mean-payoff games, existence of which is a longstanding open problem. We also identify some classes of solvency MDPs for which this problem is in P. In all above cases the algorithms also give corresponding bankruptcy avoiding strategies.