This paper presents a model-based planner called the Probabilistic Sulu Planner or the p-Sulu Planner, which controls stochastic systems in a goal directed manner within user-specified risk bounds. The objective of the p-Sulu Planner is to allow users to command continuous, stochastic systems, such as unmanned aerial and space vehicles, in a manner that is both intuitive and safe. To this end, we first develop a new plan representation called a chance-constrained qualitative state plan (CCQSP), through which users can specify the desired evolution of the plant state as well as the acceptable level of risk. An example of a CCQSP statement is ``go to A through B within 30 minutes, with less than 0.001% probability of failure." We then develop the p-Sulu Planner, which can tractably solve a CCQSP planning problem. In order to enable CCQSP planning, we develop the following two capabilities in this paper: 1) risk-sensitive planning with risk bounds, and 2) goal-directed planning in a continuous domain with temporal constraints. The first capability is to ensures that the probability of failure is bounded. The second capability is essential for the planner to solve problems with a continuous state space such as vehicle path planning. We demonstrate the capabilities of the p-Sulu Planner by simulations on two real-world scenarios: the path planning and scheduling of a personal aerial vehicle as well as the space rendezvous of an autonomous cargo spacecraft.

Autonomous vehicles need to plan trajectories to a specified goal that avoid obstacles. For robust execution, we must take into account uncertainty, which arises due to uncertain localization, modeling errors, and disturbances. Prior work handled the case of set-bounded uncertainty. We present here a chance-constrained approach, which uses instead a probabilistic representation of uncertainty. The new approach plans the future probabilistic distribution of the vehicle state so that the probability of failure is below a specified threshold. Failure occurs when the vehicle collides with an obstacle or leaves an operator-specified region. The key idea behind the approach is to use bounds on the probability of collision to show that, for linear-Gaussian systems, we can approximate the nonconvex chance-constrained optimization problem as a disjunctive convex program. This can be solved to global optimality using branch-and-bound techniques. In order to improve computation time, we introduce a customized solution method that returns almost-optimal solutions along with a hard bound on the level of suboptimality. We present an empirical validation with an aircraft obstacle avoidance example.

Aerial vehicles are appealing systems for possible future exploration of planets and moons such as Venus and Titan, because they combine extensive coverage with high-resolution data collection and in-situ science capabilities. Recent studies have proposed the use of a montgolfiere balloon, which controls its altitude by changing the heating rate or venting gas from the balloon, but has no actuation capability in the horizontal plane. A montgolfiere can use the variation in wind with altitude to guide itself to a desired location. This paper considers the problems of determining the altitude profile that the montgolfiere should follow in order to reach its target most quickly. We provide a new method that solves this path planning problem for all possible target locations, thereby providing a reachability analysis for the entire globe. The key idea is to perform a principled simplification and decoupling of the dynamics of the montgolfiere. We then discretize the search space, converting the planning problem into a graph search problem, and use Dijkstra's algorithm to calculate the minimum-time path from the start location to every possible location in the graph. We demonstrate the approach on a possible Titan mission scenario.

This paper introduces a new algorithm for probabilistic motion planning in arbitrary, uncertain vector fields, with emphasis on high-level planning for Montgolfieré balloons in the atmosphere of Titan. The goal of the algorithm is to determine what altitude—and what horizontal actuation, if any is available on the vehicle—to use to reach a goal location in the fastest expected time. The winds can vary greatly at different altitudes and are strong relative to any feasible horizontal actuation, so the incorporation of the winds is critical for guidance plans. This paper focuses on how to integrate the uncertainty of the wind field into the wind model and how to reach a goal location through the uncertain wind field, using a Markov decision process (MDP). The resulting probabilistic solutions enable more robust guidance plans and more thorough analysis of potential paths than existing methods.

Robotic systems need to be able to plan control actions that are robust to the inherent uncertainty in the real world. This uncertainty arises due to uncertain state estimation, disturbances, and modeling errors, as well as stochastic mode transitions such as component failures. Chance-constrained control takes into account uncertainty to ensure that the probability of failure, due to collision with obstacles, for example, is below a given threshold. In this paper, we present a novel method for chance-constrained predictive stochastic control of dynamic systems. The method approximates the distribution of the system state using a finite number of particles. By expressing these particles in terms of the control variables, we are able to approximate the original stochastic control problem as a deterministic one; furthermore, the approximation becomes exact as the number of particles tends to infinity. This method applies to arbitrary noise distributions, and for systems with linear or jump Markov linear dynamics, we show that the approximate problem can be solved using efficient mixed-integer linear-programming techniques. We also introduce an important weighting extension that enables the method to deal with low-probability mode transitions such as failures. We demonstrate in simulation that the new method is able to control an aircraft in turbulence and can control a ground vehicle while being robust to brake failures.

Hot air (Montgolfiere) balloons represent a promising vehicle system for possible future exploration of planets and moons with thick atmospheres such as Venus and Titan. To go to a desired location, this vehicle can primarily use the horizontal wind that varies with altitude, with a small help of its own actuation. A main challenge is how to plan such trajectory in a highly nonlinear and time-varying wind field. This paper poses this trajectory planning as a graph search on the space-time grid and addresses its computational aspects. When capturing various time scales involved in the wind field over the duration of long exploration mission, the size of the graph becomes excessively large. We show that the adjacency matrix of the graph is block-triangular, and by exploiting this structure, we decompose the large planning problem into several smaller subproblems, whose memory requirement stays almost constant as the problem size grows. The approach is demonstrated on a global reachability analysis of a possible Titan mission scenario.