Anticipating the multimodality of future events lays the foundation for safe autonomous driving. However, multimodal motion prediction for traffic agents has been clouded by the lack of multimodal ground truth. Existing works predominantly adopt the winner-take-all training strategy to tackle this challenge, yet still suffer from limited trajectory diversity and uncalibrated mode confidence. While some approaches address these limitations by generating excessive trajectory candidates, they necessitate a postprocessing stage to identify the most representative modes, a process lacking universal principles and compromising trajectory accuracy. We are thus motivated to introduce ModeSeq, a new multimodal prediction paradigm that models modes as sequences. Unlike the common practice of decoding multiple plausible trajectories in one shot, ModeSeq requires motion decoders to infer the next mode step by step, thereby more explicitly capturing the correlation between modes and significantly enhancing the ability to reason about multimodality. Leveraging the inductive bias of sequential mode prediction, we also propose the EarlyMatch-Take-All (EMTA) training strategy to diversify the trajectories further. Without relying on dense mode prediction or heuristic post-processing, ModeSeq considerably improves the diversity of multimodal output while attaining satisfactory trajectory accuracy, resulting in balanced performance on motion prediction benchmarks. Moreover, ModeSeq naturally emerges with the capability of mode extrapolation, which supports forecasting more behavior modes when the future is highly uncertain.

Simulating realistic behaviors of traffic agents is pivotal for efficiently validating the safety of autonomous driving systems. Existing data-driven simulators primarily use an encoder-decoder architecture to encode the historical trajectories before decoding the future. However, the heterogeneity between encoders and decoders complicates the models, and the manual separation of historical and future trajectories leads to low data utilization. Given these limitations, we propose BehaviorGPT, a homogeneous and fully autoregressive Transformer designed to simulate the sequential behavior of multiple agents. Crucially, our approach discards the traditional separation between "history" and "future" by modeling each time step as the "current" one for motion generation, leading to a simpler, more parameter- and data-efficient agent simulator. We further introduce the Next-Patch Prediction Paradigm (NP3) to mitigate the negative effects of autoregressive modeling, in which models are trained to reason at the patch level of trajectories and capture long-range spatial-temporal interactions. Despite having merely 3M model parameters, BehaviorGPT won first place in the 2024 Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge with a realism score of 0.7473 and a minADE score of 1.4147, demonstrating its exceptional performance in traffic agent simulation.

Predicting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is essential for autonomous vehicles to operate safely. This paper presents QCNet, a modeling framework toward pushing the boundaries of trajectory prediction. First, we identify that the agent-centric modeling scheme used by existing approaches requires re-normalizing and re-encoding the input whenever the observation window slides forward, leading to redundant computations during online prediction. To overcome this limitation and achieve faster inference, we introduce a query-centric paradigm for scene encoding, which enables the reuse of past computations by learning representations independent of the global spacetime coordinate system. Sharing the invariant scene features among all target agents further allows the parallelism of multi-agent trajectory decoding. Second, even given rich encodings of the scene, existing decoding strategies struggle to capture the multimodality inherent in agents' future behavior, especially when the prediction horizon is long. To tackle this challenge, we first employ anchor-free queries to generate trajectory proposals in a recurrent fashion, which allows the model to utilize different scene contexts when decoding waypoints at different horizons. A refinement module then takes the trajectory proposals as anchors and leverages anchor-based queries to refine the trajectories further. By supplying adaptive and high-quality anchors to the refinement module, our query-based decoder can better deal with the multimodality in the output of trajectory prediction. Our approach ranks 1ston Argoverse 1 and Argoverse 2 motion forecasting benchmarks, outperforming all methods on all main metrics by a large margin. Meanwhile, our model can achieve streaming scene encoding and parallel multi-agent decoding thanks to the query-centric design ethos.