Multi-horizon time series forecasting has many practical applications such as demand forecasting. Accurate demand prediction is critical to help make buying and inventory decisions for supply chain management of e-commerce and physical retailers, and such predictions are typically required for future horizons extending tens of weeks. This is especially challenging during high-stake sales events when demand peaks are particularly difficult to predict accurately. However, these events are important not only for managing supply chain operations but also for ensuring a seamless shopping experience for customers. To address this challenge, we propose Temporal-Aligned Transformer (TAT), a multi-horizon forecaster leveraging apriori-known context variables such as holiday and promotion events information for improving predictive performance. Our model consists of an encoder and decoder, both embedded with a novel Temporal Alignment Attention (TAA), designed to learn context-dependent alignment for peak demand forecasting. We conduct extensive empirical analysis on two large-scale proprietary datasets from a large e-commerce retailer. We demonstrate that TAT brings up to 30% accuracy improvement on peak demand forecasting while maintaining competitive overall performance compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

Controllable character image animation has a wide range of applications. Although existing studies have consistently improved performance, challenges persist in the field of character image animation, particularly concerning stability in complex backgrounds and tasks involving multiple characters. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multi-condition guided framework for character image animation, employing several well-designed input modules to enhance the implicit decoupling capability of the model. First, the optical flow guider calculates the background optical flow map as guidance information, which enables the model to implicitly learn to decouple the background motion into background constants and background momentum during training, and generate a stable background by setting zero background momentum during inference. Second, the depth order guider calculates the order map of the characters, which transforms the depth information into the positional information of multiple characters. This facilitates the implicit learning of decoupling different characters, especially in accurately separating the occluded body parts of multiple characters. Third, the reference pose map is input to enhance the ability to decouple character texture and pose information in the reference image. Furthermore, to fill the gap of fair evaluation of multi-character image animation, we propose a new benchmark comprising about 4,000 frames. Extensive qualitative and quantitative evaluations demonstrate that our method excels in generating high-quality character animations, especially in scenarios of complex backgrounds and multiple characters.

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where predictive models can trigger actions that influence the outcome they aim to predict, subsequently altering the target variable's distribution. This phenomenon, known as performativity, introduces the potential for 'self-negating' or 'self-fulfilling' predictions. Despite extensive studies on performativity in classification problems across domains, this phenomenon remains largely unexplored in the context of time-series forecasting from a machine-learning perspective.

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial for TSF models to preserve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as training and test sets represent historical and future data respectively. In this paper, we aim to alleviate the inherent OOD problem in TSF via invariant learning. We identify fundamental challenges of invariant learning for TSF. First, the target variables in TSF may not be sufficiently determined by the input due to unobserved core variables in TSF, breaking the fundamental assumption of invariant learning. Second, time-series datasets lack adequate environment labels, while existing environmental inference methods are not suitable for TSF. To address these challenges, we propose FOIL, a model-agnostic framework that endows time-series forecasting for out-of-distribution generalization via invariant learning. Specifically, FOIL employs a novel surrogate loss to mitigate the impact of unobserved variables. Further, FOIL implements joint optimization by alternately inferring environments effectively with a multi-head network while preserving the temporal adjacency structure and learning invariant representations across inferred environments for OOD generalized TSF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed FOIL significantly and consistently improves the performance of various TSF models, achieving gains of up to 85%.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. Whilereal-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSAmodels rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potentialof textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the firstmulti-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains.Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, thefirst-cut multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipeliningmultimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensiveexperiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality,evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40%in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and libraryrevolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. Thedataset is available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD.

Federated learning is an emerging machine learning framework where models are trained using heterogeneous datasets collected by a large number of edge clients. Standard methods to aggregate local training models weigh each model by a fraction of data size at that client. However, such approaches result in unfairness to clients with small and unique datasets, leading to inferior accuracy of the global model at these clients. In this work, we propose a novel optimization framework called DRFL that dynamically adjusts the weight assigned to each client, and we combine it with a biased client selection strategy, both of which encourage fairness in federated training. We validate the effectiveness of our proposed method on a suite of both synthetic and real federated datasets, revealing the proposed method outperforms existing baselines in terms of resulting fairness.