Developed under the IARPA Open Source Initiative program, EMBERS (Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates) is a large-scale Big-Data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest incidents and disease outbreaks on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November of 2012, delivering approximately 50 predictions each day. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, share-nothing architecture and is deployed on Amazon Web Services (AWS).

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

The problem of image registration, or the alignment of two or more images representing the same scene or object, has to be addressed in various disciplines that employ digital imaging. In the area of remote sensing, just like in medical imaging or computer vision, it is necessary to design robust, fast, and widely applicable algorithms that would allow automatic registration of images generated by various imaging platforms at the same or different times and that would provide subpixel accuracy. One of the main issues that needs to be addressed when developing a registration algorithm is what type of information should be extracted from the images being registered, to be used in the search for the geometric transformation that best aligns them. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate several wavelet pyramids that may be used both for invariant feature extraction and for representing images at multiple spatial resolutions to accelerate registration. We find that the bandpass wavelets obtained from the steerable pyramid due to Simoncelli performs best in terms of accuracy and consistency, while the low-pass wavelets obtained from the same pyramid give the best results in terms of the radius of convergence. Based on these findings, we propose a modification of a gradient-based registration algorithm that has recently been developed for medical data. We test the modified algorithm on several sets of real and synthetic satellite imagery.

While automatic image registration algorithms are usually being evaluated with regards to their accuracy, it is often useful to relate this accuracy to the "initial conditions", i.e., the distance between the initial navigation geolocation and the correct result. This paper describes a modular framework that was built to describe registration algorithms, and utilize this framework to attempt to classify different registration components and algorithms in terms of their responses to the initial conditions. Performances would be evaluated on synthetic data, multitemporal and multisensor data. All results of the study would be presented at the conference and would be useful for two different purposes: (1) provide automatic quality assessment of the geolocation of remote sensing data by performing interalgorithm consistency studies; and (2) be the foundations for the design of future on-board applications including planetary exploration.

Image registration is the process by which we determine a transformation that provides the most accurate match between two images. The search for the matching transformation can be automated with the use of a suitable metric, but it can be very time-consuming and tedious. We introduce a registration algorithm that combines a simple yet powerful search strategy based on a stochastic gradient with two similarity measures, correlation and mutual information, together with a wavelet-based multiresolution pyramid. We limit our study to pairs of images, which are misaligned by rotation and/or translation, and present two main results. First, we demonstrate that, in our application, mutual information may be better suited for sub-pixel registration as it produces consistently sharper optimum peaks than correlation. Then, we show that the stochastic gradient search combined with either measure produces accurate results when applied to synthetic data, as well as to multitemporal or multisensor collections of satellite data. Mutual information is generally found to optimize with one-third the number of iterations required by correlation. Results also show that a multiresolution implementation of the algorithm yields significant improvements in terms of both speed and robustness over a single-resolution implementation.