Reliable prediction of protein variant effects is crucial for both protein optimization and for advancing biological understanding. For practical use in protein engineering, it is important that we can also provide reliable uncertainty estimates for our predictions, and while prediction accuracy has seen much progress in recent years, uncertainty metrics are rarely reported. We here provide a Gaussian process regression model, Kermut, with a novel composite kernel for modeling mutation similarity, which obtains state-of-the-art performance for supervised protein variant effect prediction while also offering estimates of uncertainty through its posterior. An analysis of the quality of the uncertainty estimates demonstrates that our model provides meaningful levels of overall calibration, but that instance-specific uncertainty calibration remains more challenging.

To optimize proteins for particular traits holds great promise for industrial and pharmaceutical purposes. Machine Learning is increasingly applied in this field to predict properties of proteins, thereby guiding the experimental optimization process. A natural question is: How much progress are we making with such predictions, and how important is the choice of regressor and representation? In this paper, we demonstrate that different assessment criteria for regressor performance can lead to dramatically different conclusions, depending on the choice of metric, and how one defines generalization. We highlight the fundamental issues of sample bias in typical regression scenarios and how this can lead to misleading conclusions about regressor performance. Finally, we make the case for the importance of calibrated uncertainty in this domain.

MOTIVATION: Solubility and expression levels of proteins can be a limiting factor for large-scale studies and industrial production. By determining the solubility and expression directly from the protein sequence, the success rate of wet-lab experiments can be increased. RESULTS: In this study, we focus on predicting the solubility and usability for purification of proteins expressed in Escherichia coli directly from the sequence. Our model NetSolP is based on deep learning protein language models called transformers and we show that it achieves state-of-the-art performance and improves extrapolation across datasets. As we find current methods are built on biased datasets, we curate existing datasets by using strict sequence-identity partitioning and ensure that there is minimal bias in the sequences. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The predictor and data are available at https://services.healthtech.dtu.dk/service.php?NetSolP and the open-sourced code is available at https://github.com/tvinet/NetSolP-1.0. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

BACKGROUND: Modelling the interaction between potentially antigenic peptides and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) molecules is a key step in identifying potential T-cell epitopes. For Class II MHC alleles, the binding groove is open at both ends, causing ambiguity in the positional alignment between the groove and peptide, as well as creating uncertainty as to what parts of the peptide interact with the MHC. Moreover, the antigenic peptides have variable lengths, making naive modelling methods difficult to apply. This paper introduces a kernel method that can handle variable length peptides effectively by quantifying similarities between peptide sequences and integrating these into the kernel. RESULTS: The kernel approach presented here shows increased prediction accuracy with a significantly higher number of true positives and negatives on multiple MHC class II alleles, when testing data sets from MHCPEP 1, MCHBN 2, and MHCBench 3. Evaluation by cross validation, when segregating binders and non-binders, produced an average of 0.824 AROC for the MHCBench data sets (up from 0.756), and an average of 0.96 AROC for multiple alleles of the MHCPEP database. CONCLUSION: The method improves performance over existing state-of-the-art methods of MHC class II peptide binding predictions by using a custom, knowledge-based representation of peptides. Similarity scores, in contrast to a fixed-length, pocket-specific representation of amino acids, provide a flexible and powerful way of modelling MHC binding, and can easily be applied to other dynamic sequence problems.

We describe the use of Support Vector Machines for phonetic classification on the TIMIT corpus. Unlike previous work, in which entire phonemes are classified, our system operates in a framewise manner and is intended for use as the front-end of a hybrid system similar to ABBOT. We therefore avoid the problems of classifying variable-length vectors. Our frame-level phone classification accuracy on the complete TIMIT test set is competitive with other results from the literature. In addition, we address the serious problem of scaling Support Vector Machines by using the Kernel Fisher Discriminant. 1.