Trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in the autonomous driving stack by enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the motion of surrounding agents. Goal-based prediction models have gained traction in recent years for addressing the multimodal nature of future trajectories. Goal-based prediction models simplify multimodal prediction by first predicting 2D goal locations of agents and then predicting trajectories conditioned on each goal. However, a single 2D goal location serves as a weak inductive bias for predicting the whole trajectory, often leading to poor map compliance, i.e., part of the trajectory going off-road or breaking traffic rules. In this paper, we improve upon goal-based prediction by proposing the Path-based prediction (PBP) approach. PBP predicts a discrete probability distribution over reference paths in the HD map using the path features and predicts trajectories in the path-relative Frenet frame. We applied the PBP trajectory decoder on top of the HiVT scene encoder and report results on the Argoverse dataset. Our experiments show that PBP achieves competitive performance on the standard trajectory prediction metrics, while significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines in terms of map compliance.

Motion prediction is a critical part of self-driving technology, responsible for inferring future behavior of traffic actors in autonomous vehicle’s surroundings. In order to ensure safe and efficient operations, prediction models need to output accurate trajectories that obey the map constraints. In this paper, we address this task and propose a novel ellipse loss that allows the models to better reason about scene compliance and predict more realistic trajectories. Ellipse loss penalizes off-road predictions directly in a supervised manner, by projecting the output trajectories into the top-down map frame using a differentiable trajectory rasterizer module. Moreover, it takes into account actor dimensions and orientation, providing more direct training signals to the model. We applied ellipse loss to a recently proposed state-of-the-art joint detection-prediction model to showcase its benefits. Evaluation on large-scale autonomous driving data strongly indicates that the method allows for more accurate and more realistic trajectory predictions.

A commonly-used representation for motion prediction of actors is a sequence of waypoints (comprising positions and orientations) for each actor at discrete future time-points. While regressing waypoints is simple and flexible, it can exhibit unrealistic higher-order derivatives (such as acceleration) and approximation errors at intermediate time steps. To address this issue we propose a general representation for temporally-continuous probabilistic trajectory prediction that regresses polynomial parameterization coefficients. We evaluate the proposed representation on supervised trajectory prediction tasks using two large self-driving data sets. The results show realistic higher-order derivatives and better accuracy at interpolated time-points, as well as the benefits of the inferred noise distributions over the trajectories. Extensive experimental studies based on existing state-of-the-art models demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach relative to other representations in predicting the future motions of vehicle, bicyclist, and pedestrian traffic actors.

One of the critical pieces of the self-driving puzzle is understanding the surroundings of a self-driving vehicle (SDV) and predicting how these surroundings will change in the near future. To address this task we propose MultiXNet, an end-to-end approach for detection and motion prediction based directly on lidar sensor data. This approach builds on prior work by handling multiple classes of traffic actors, adding a jointly trained second-stage trajectory refinement step, and producing a multimodal probability distribution over future actor motion that includes both multiple discrete traffic behaviors and calibrated continuous position uncertainties. The method was evaluated on large-scale, real-world data collected by a fleet of SDV s in several cities, with the results indicating that it outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) hold great potential for improving traffic safety and are poised to positively affect the quality of life of millions of people. To unlock this potential one of the critical aspects of the autonomous technology is understanding and predicting future movement of vehicles surrounding the SDV. This work presents a deep-learning- based method for kinematically feasible motion prediction of such traffic actors. Previous work did not explicitly encode vehicle kinematics and instead relied on the models to learn the constraints directly from the data, potentially resulting in kinematically infeasible, suboptimal trajectory predictions. To address this issue we propose a method that seamlessly combines ideas from the AI with physically grounded vehicle motion models. In this way we employ best of the both worlds, coupling powerful learning models with strong feasibility guarantees for their outputs. The proposed approach is general, being applicable to any type of learning method. Extensive experiments using deep convnets on real-world data strongly indicate its benefits, outperforming the existing state-of-the-art.

Following detection and tracking of traffic actors, prediction of their future motion is the next critical component of a self-driving vehicle (SDV) technology, allowing the SDV to operate safely and efficiently in its environment. This is particularly important when it comes to vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists. These actors need to be handled with special care due to an increased risk of injury, as well as the fact that their behavior is less predictable than that of motorized actors. To address this issue, in the current study we present a deep learning-based method for predicting VRU movement, where we rasterize high-definition maps and actor's surroundings into a bird's-eye view image used as an input to deep convolutional networks. In addition, we propose a fast architecture suitable for real-time inference, and perform an ablation study of various rasterization approaches to find the optimal choice for accurate prediction. The results strongly indicate benefits of using the proposed approach for motion prediction of VRUs, both in terms of accuracy and latency.

One of the most critical pieces of the self-driving puzzle is the task of predicting future movement of surrounding traffic actors, which allows the autonomous vehicle to safely and effectively plan its future route in a complex world. Recently, a number of algorithms have been proposed to address this important problem, spurred by a growing interest of researchers from both industry and academia. Methods based on top-down scene rasterization on one side and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) on the other have shown to be particularly successful, obtaining state-of-the-art accuracies on the task of traffic movement prediction. In this paper we build upon these two directions and propose a raster-based conditional GAN architecture, powered by a novel differentiable rasterizer module at the input of the conditional discriminator that maps generated trajectories into the raster space in a differentiable manner. This simplifies the task for the discriminator as trajectories that are not scene-compliant are easier to discern, and allows the gradients to flow back forcing the generator to output better, more realistic trajectories. We evaluated the proposed method on a large-scale, real-world data set, showing that it outperforms state-of-the-art GAN-based baselines.

We address one of the crucial aspects necessary for safe and efficient operations of autonomous vehicles, namely predicting future state of traffic actors in the autonomous vehicle's surroundings. We introduce a deep learning-based approach that takes into account a current world state and produces raster images of each actor's vicinity. The rasters are then used as inputs to deep convolutional models to infer future movement of actors while also accounting for and capturing inherent uncertainty of the prediction task. Extensive experiments on real-world data strongly suggest benefits of the proposed approach. Moreover, following successful tests the system was deployed to a fleet of autonomous vehicles.

Autonomous driving presents one of the largest problems that the robotics and artificial intelligence communities are facing at the moment, both in terms of difficulty and potential societal impact. Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) are expected to prevent road accidents and save millions of lives while improving the livelihood and life quality of many more. However, despite large interest and a number of industry players working in the autonomous domain, there still remains more to be done in order to develop a system capable of operating at a level comparable to best human drivers. One reason for this is high uncertainty of traffic behavior and large number of situations that an SDV may encounter on the roads, making it very difficult to create a fully generalizable system. To ensure safe and efficient operations, an autonomous vehicle is required to account for this uncertainty and to anticipate a multitude of possible behaviors of traffic actors in its surrounding. We address this critical problem and present a method to predict multiple possible trajectories of actors while also estimating their probabilities. The method encodes each actor's surrounding context into a raster image, used as input by deep convolutional networks to automatically derive relevant features for the task. Following extensive offline evaluation and comparison to state-of-the-art baselines, the method was successfully tested on SDVs in closed-course tests.

FlexRR provides a scalable, efficient solution to the straggler problem for iterative machine learning (ML). The frequent (e.g., per iteration) barriers used in traditional BSP-based distributed ML implementations cause every transient slowdown of any worker thread to delay all others. FlexRR combines a more flexible synchronization model with dynamic peer-to-peer re-assignment of work among workers to address straggler threads. Experiments with real straggler behavior observed on Amazon EC2 and Microsoft Azure, as well as injected straggler behavior stress tests, confirm the significance of the problem and the effectiveness of FlexRR's solution. Using FlexRR, we consistently observe near-ideal run-times (relative to no performance jitter) across all real and injected straggler behaviors tested.

Large-scale deep learning requires huge computational resources to train a multi-layer neural network. Recent systems propose using 100s to 1000s of machines to train networks with tens of layers and billions of connections. While the computation involved can be done more efficiently on GPUs than on more traditional CPU cores, training such networks on a single GPU is too slow and training on distributed GPUs can be inefficient, due to data movement overheads, GPU stalls, and limited GPU memory. This paper describes a new parameter server, called GeePS, that supports scalable deep learning across GPUs distributed among multiple machines, overcoming these obstacles. We show that GeePS enables a state-of-the-art single-node GPU implementation to scale well, such as to 13 times the number of training images processed per second on 16 machines (relative to the original optimized single-node code). Moreover, GeePS achieves a higher training throughput with just four GPU machines than that a state-of-the-art CPU-only system achieves with 108 machines.

Time series analysis is commonly used when monitoring data centers, networks, weather, and even human patients. In most cases, the raw time series data is massive, from millions to billions of data points, and yet interactive analyses require low (e.g., sub-second) latency. Aperture transforms raw time series data, during ingest, into compact summarized representations that it can use to efficiently answer queries at runtime. Aperture handles a range of complex queries, from correlating hundreds of lengthy time series to predicting anomalies in the data. Aperture achieves much of its high performance by executing queries on data summaries, while providing a bound on the information lost when transforming data. By doing so, Aperture can reduce query latency as well as the data that needs to be stored and analyzed to answer a query. Our experiments on real data show that Aperture can provide one to four orders of magnitude lower query response time, while incurring only 10% ingest time overhead and less than 20% error in accuracy.

At the core of Machine Learning (ML) analytics is often an expert-suggested model, whose parameters are refined by iteratively processing a training dataset until convergence. The completion time (i.e. convergence time) and quality of the learned model not only depends on the rate at which the refinements are generated but also the quality of each refinement. While data-parallel ML applications often employ a loose consistency model when updating shared model parameters to maximize parallelism, the accumulated error may seriously impact the quality of refinements and thus delay completion time, a problem that usually gets worse with scale. Although more immediate propagation of updates reduces the accumulated error, this strategy is limited by physical network bandwidth. Additionally, the performance of the widely used stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm is sensitive to step size. Simply increasing communication often fails to bring improvement without tuning step size accordingly and tedious hand tuning is usually needed to achieve optimal performance.

Many large-scale machine learning (ML) applications use iterative algorithms to converge on parameter values that make the chosen model fit the input data. Often, this approach results in the same sequence of accesses to parameters repeating each iteration. This paper shows that these repeating patterns can and should be exploited to improve the efficiency of the parallel and distributed ML applications that will be a mainstay in cloud computing environments. Focusing on the increasingly popular "parameter server" approach to sharing model parameters among worker threads, we describe and demonstrate how the repeating patterns can be exploited. Examples include replacing dynamic cache and server structures with static pre-serialized structures, informing prefetch and partitioning decisions, and determining which data should be cached at each thread to avoid both contention and slow accesses to memory banks attached to other sockets. Experiments show that such exploitation reduces per-iteration time by 33--98%, for three real ML workloads, and that these improvements are robust to variation in the patterns over time.

We propose a parameter server system for distributed ML, which follows a Stale Synchronous Parallel (SSP) model of computation that maximizes the time computational workers spend doing useful work on ML algorithms, while still providing correctness guarantees. The parameter server provides an easy-to-use shared interface for read/write access to an ML model's values (parameters and variables), and the SSP model allows distributed workers to read older, stale versions of these values from a local cache, instead of waiting to get them from a central storage. This significantly increases the proportion of time workers spend computing, as opposed to waiting. Furthermore, the SSP model ensures ML algorithm correctness by limiting the maximum age of the stale values. We provide a proof of correctness under SSP, as well as empirical results demonstrating that the SSP model achieves faster algorithm convergence on several different ML problems, compared to fully-synchronous and asynchronous schemes.

Multicast benefits data center group communications in saving network bandwidth and increasing application throughput. However, it is challenging to scale Multicast to support tens of thousands of concurrent group communications due to limited forwarding table memory space in the switches, particularly the low-end ones commonly used in modern data centers. Bloom Filter is an efficient tool to compress the Multicast forwarding table, but significant traffic leakage may occur when group membership testing is false positive. To reduce the Multicast traffic leakage, in this paper we bring forward a novel multi-class Bloom Filter (MBF), which extends the standard Bloom Filter by embracing element uncertainty. Specifically, MBF sets the number of hash functions in a per-element level, based on the probability for each Multicast group to be inserted into the Bloom Filter. We design a simple yet effective algorithm to calculate the number of hash functions for each Multicast group. We have prototyped a software based MBF forwarding engine on the Linux platform. Simulation and prototype evaluation results demonstrate that MBF can significantly reduce Multicast traffic leakage compared to the standard Bloom Filter, while causing little system overhead.