Probabilistic prediction aims to compute predictive distributions rather than single point predictions. These distributions enable practitioners to quantify uncertainty, compute risk, and detect outliers. However, most probabilistic methods assume parametric responses, such as Gaussian or Poisson distributions. When these assumptions fail, such models lead to bad predictions and poorly calibrated uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Treeffuser, an easy-to-use method for probabilistic prediction on tabular data. The idea is to learn a conditional diffusion model where the score function is estimated using gradient-boosted trees. The conditional diffusion model makes Treeffuser flexible and non-parametric, while the gradient-boosted trees make it robust and easy to train on CPUs. Treeffuser learns well-calibrated predictive distributions and can handle a wide range of regression tasks---including those with multivariate, multimodal, and skewed responses. We study Treeffuser on synthetic and real data and show that it outperforms existing methods, providing better calibrated probabilistic predictions. We further demonstrate its versatility with an application to inventory allocation under uncertainty using sales data from Walmart. We implement Treeffuser in https://github.com/blei-lab/treeffuser.

We propose a graphical model framework for goal-conditioned RL, with an EM algorithm that operates on the lower bound of the RL objective. The E-step provides a natural interpretation of how ’learning in hindsight’ techniques, such as HER, to handle extremely sparse goal-conditioned rewards. The M-step reduces policy optimization to supervised learning updates, which greatly stabilizes end-to-end training on high-dimensional inputs such as images. We show that the combined algorithm, hEM significantly outperforms model-free baselines on a wide range of goal-conditioned benchmarks with sparse rewards.

Evolution Strategies (ES) are a powerful class of blackbox optimization techniques that recently became a competitive alternative to state-of-the-art policy gradient (PG) algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL). We propose a new method for improving accuracy of the ES algorithms, that as opposed to recent approaches utilizing only Monte Carlo structure of the gradient estimator, takes advantage of the underlying MDP structure to reduce the variance. We observe that the gradient estimator of the ES objective can be alternatively computed using reparametrization and PG estimators, which leads to new control variate techniques for gradient estimation in ES optimization. We provide theoretical insights and show through extensive experiments that this RL-specific variance reduction approach outperforms general purpose variance reduction methods.

Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose to evaluate a model through posterior dispersion. The idea is to analyze how each datapoint fares in relation to posterior uncertainty around the hidden structure. This highlights datapoints the model struggles to explain and provides complimentary insight to datapoints with low predictive accuracy. We present a family of posterior dispersion indices (PDI) that capture this idea. We show how a PDI identifies patterns of model mismatch in three real data examples: voting preferences, supermarket shopping, and population genetics.

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model’s assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mismatch of a large class of probabilistic models. The idea is to raise the likelihood of each observation to a weight and then to infer both the latent variables and the weights from data. Inferring the weights allows a model to identify observations that match its assumptions and down-weight others. This enables robust inference and improves predictive accuracy. We study four different forms of mismatch with reality, ranging from missing latent groups to structure misspecification. A Poisson factorization analysis of the Movielens 1M dataset shows the benefits of this approach in a practical scenario.

Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps. To this end, we develop ADVI. Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models. ADVI supports a broad class of models ---no conjugacy assumptions are required. We study ADVI across ten modern probabilistic models and apply it to a dataset with millions of observations. We deploy ADVI as part of Stan, a probabilistic programming system.

Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult for non-experts to use. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI); we implement it in Stan (code available), a probabilistic programming system. In ADVI the user provides a Bayesian model and a dataset, nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We compare ADVI to MCMC sampling across hierarchical generalized linear models, nonconjugate matrix factorization, and a mixture model. We train the mixture model on a quarter million images. With ADVI we can use variational inference on any model we write in Stan.

An important parameter in analysis of physiological tremor is the diagnosis and study of neurological disorders. The instantaneous tremor frequency (ITF) is an important parameter in tremor analysis. This paper proposes a novel stochastic filter, the multiple extended Kalman filter (M-EKF), for tracking of ITF from neural microelectrode recordings. The M-EKF mitigates degradations in filter performance resulting from a mismatch between assumed initial conditions and those of a particular realization of a stochastic system. Specifically, the M-EKF is comprised of a bank of extended Kalman filters (EKF), each initialized with different conditions, selected according to the unscented transform. The final estimate is a weighted average of the individual estimates provided by each EKF where the weights reflect how closely the assumed EKF initial conditions match those of the true system. The M-EKF is applied to a synthetic tremor model to display its superior performance to that of the EKF and the unscented Kalman filter.