Any clinically-deployed image-processing pipeline must be robust to the full range of inputs it may be presented with. One popular approach to this challenge is to develop predictive models that can provide a measure of their uncertainty. Another approach is to use generative modelling to quantify the likelihood of inputs. Inputs with a low enough likelihood are deemed to be out-of-distribution and are not presented to the downstream predictive model. In this work, we evaluate several approaches to segmentation with uncertainty for the task of segmenting bleeds in 3D CT of the head. We show that these models can fail catastrophically when operating in the far out-of-distribution domain, often providing predictions that are both highly confident and wrong. We propose to instead perform out-of-distribution detection using the Latent Transformer Model: a VQ-GAN is used to provide a highly compressed latent representation of the input volume, and a transformer is then used to estimate the likelihood of this compressed representation of the input. We demonstrate this approach can identify images that are both far- and near- out-of-distribution, as well as provide spatial maps that highlight the regions considered to be out-of-distribution. Furthermore, we find a strong relationship between an image's likelihood and the quality of a model's segmentation on it, demonstrating that this approach is viable for filtering out unsuitable images.

The ability to perform accurate prognosis is crucial for proactive clinical decision making, informed resource management and personalised care. Existing outcome prediction models suffer from a low recall of infrequent positive outcomes. We present a highly-scalable and robust machine learning framework to automatically predict adversity represented by mortality and ICU admission and readmission from time-series of vital signs and laboratory results obtained within the first 24 hours of hospital admission. The stacked ensemble platform comprises two components: a) an unsupervised LSTM Autoencoder that learns an optimal representation of the time-series, using it to differentiate the less frequent patterns which conclude with an adverse event from the majority patterns that do not, and b) a gradient boosting model, which relies on the constructed representation to refine prediction by incorporating static features. The model is used to assess a patient's risk of adversity and provides visual justifications of its prediction. Results of three case studies show that the model outperforms existing platforms in ICU and general ward settings, achieving average Precision-Recall Areas Under the Curve (PR-AUCs) of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.878-0.939) for mortality and 0.908 (95% CI: 0.870-0.935) in predicting ICU admission and readmission.

OBJECTIVE: Risk prediction models are widely used to inform evidence-based clinical decision making. However, few models developed from single cohorts can perform consistently well at population level where diverse prognoses exist (such as the SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] pandemic). This study aims at tackling this challenge by synergizing prediction models from the literature using ensemble learning. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, we selected and reimplemented 7 prediction models for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) that were derived from diverse cohorts and used different implementation techniques. A novel ensemble learning framework was proposed to synergize them for realizing personalized predictions for individual patients. Four diverse international cohorts (2 from the United Kingdom and 2 from China; N = 5394) were used to validate all 8 models on discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Results showed that individual prediction models could perform well on some cohorts while poorly on others. Conversely, the ensemble model achieved the best performances consistently on all metrics quantifying discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Performance disparities were observed in cohorts from the 2 countries: all models achieved better performances on the China cohorts. DISCUSSION: When individual models were learned from complementary cohorts, the synergized model had the potential to achieve better performances than any individual model. Results indicate that blood parameters and physiological measurements might have better predictive powers when collected early, which remains to be confirmed by further studies. CONCLUSIONS: Combining a diverse set of individual prediction models, the ensemble method can synergize a robust and well-performing model by choosing the most competent ones for individual patients.