BACKGROUND: In expressed sequence tag (EST) sequencing, we are often interested in how many genes we can capture in an EST sample of a targeted size. This information provides insights to sequencing efficiency in experimental design, as well as clues to the diversity of expressed genes in the tissue from which the library was constructed. RESULTS: We propose a compound Poisson process model that can accurately predict the gene capture in a future EST sample based on an initial EST sample. It also allows estimation of the number of expressed genes in one cDNA library or co-expressed in two cDNA libraries. The superior performance of the new prediction method over an existing approach is established by a simulation study. Our analysis of four Arabidopsis thaliana EST sets suggests that the number of expressed genes present in four different cDNA libraries of Arabidopsis thaliana varies from 9155 (root) to 12005 (silique). An observed fraction of co-expressed genes in two different EST sets as low as 25% can correspond to an actual overlap fraction greater than 65%. CONCLUSION: The proposed method provides a convenient tool for gene capture prediction and cDNA library property diagnosis in EST sequencing.

MOTIVATION: The gene expression intensity information conveyed by (EST) Expressed Sequence Tag data can be used to infer important cDNA library properties, such as gene number and expression patterns. However, EST clustering errors, which often lead to greatly inflated estimates of obtained unique genes, have become a major obstacle in the analyses. The EST clustering error structure, the relationship between clustering error and clustering criteria, and possible error correction methods need to be systematically investigated. RESULTS: We identify and quantify two types of EST clustering error, namely, Type I and II in EST clustering using CAP3 assembling program. A Type I error occurs when ESTs from the same gene do not form a cluster whereas a Type II error occurs when ESTs from distinct genes are falsely clustered together. While the Type II error rate is <1.5% for both 5' and 3' EST clustering, the Type I error in the 5' EST case is approximately 10 times higher than the 3' EST case (30% versus 3%). An over-stringent identity rule, e.g., P >/= 95%, may even inflate the Type I error in both cases. We demonstrate that approximately 80% of the Type I error is due to insufficient overlap among sibling ESTs (ISO error) in 5' EST clustering. A novel statistical approach is proposed to correct ISO error to provide more accurate estimates of the true gene cluster profile.