We study data-dependent regret bounds for the Online Portfolio Selection (OPS) problem. As opposed to worst-case bounds that hold uniformly over all sequence of returns, data-dependent bounds adapt to the specific sequence of returns seen by the investor. Consider a market of $n$ assets and $T$ time periods, consisting of the returns $r_1,…,r_T \in \mathbb{R}^n_+$. The regret of our proposed algorithm, Log-Barrier Adaptive-Curvature Online Newton Step (LB-AdaCurv ONS) is bounded by $O(\min(nR\log T, \sqrt{nT\log T}))$, where $R = \max_{t,i,j} \frac{r_t(i)}{r_t(j)}$ is a data dependent quantity that is not known to the algorithm. Thus, LB-AdaCurv ONS has a worst case regret of $O(\sqrt{nT \log T})$ while simultaneously having a data-dependent regret of $O(nR\log T)$. Next, we consider the more practical setting of OPS with predicted returns, where the investor has access to predictions that can be incorporated into the portfolio selection process. We propose the Optimistic Expected Utility LB-FTRL (OUE-LB-FTRL) algorithm that incorporates the predictions using a utility function. If the predictions are accurate, OUE-LB-FTRL’s regret is $O(n \log T)$ and even if the predictions are arbitrary, regret is always bounded by $O(\sqrt{nT\log T})$. We provide a meta-algorithm called Best-of-Both Worlds for OPS (BoB-OPS), that combines the portfolios of an expected utility investor and a regret minimizing investor. By properly instantiating BoB-OPS, we show that the regret with respect to the expected utility investor is $O(\log T)$ and the static regret is $O(n \log T)$. Finally, we also show new First-Order, Second-Order and Gradual-Variation regret bounds for OPS. In our analysis, we developed new regret inequalities for optimistic FTRL with convex hint functions. This extends prior work on optimistic FTRL that used only linear hints, and so could be of independent interest.

Model-free methods for reinforcement learning (RL), particularly Q-learning, have gained popularity in practice because of their simplicity and flexibility, and underlie most successful modern deep RL algorithms. However, the sample complexity and regret bounds for these approaches have often lagged behind their model-based counterparts, especially in the average reward setting. Our work addresses this gap. We present a simple, optimistic Q-learning algorithm for regret minimization in a tabular RL setting that encompasses \textit{both average reward and episodic} settings. Our contributions include new modeling, algorithm design, and regret analysis techniques. Our first and foremost contribution is a natural modeling assumption that generalizes the episodic and ergodic MDP settings and provides a more practically applicable formulation. We consider the class of MDPs where there is an "upper bound $H$ on the time to visit a frequent state $s_0$", either in expectation or with constant probability. The upper bound $H$ is assumed to hold under all feasible policies (stationary or non-stationary) and is known to the RL agent, although the identity of the frequent state $s_0$ may not be known. This assumption is naturally satisfied by the episodic settings since the terminal state is visited after every set of $H$ steps, and also by the ergodic MDP settings that assume bounded worst-case hitting time $H$ for {\it all states}. Furthermore, as we demonstrate using several examples from queuing admission control and inventory management, it allows for significantly more modeling flexibility than the existing settings. A key technical contribution of our work is the introduction of an $\overline{L}$ operator defined as $\overline{L} v = \frac{1}{H} \sum_{h=1}^H L^h v$ where $L$ denotes the Bellman operator. Under the given assumption, we show that the $\overline{L}$ operator has a strict contraction (in span) even in the average-reward setting where the discount factor is $1$. Our algorithm design builds upon the Q-learning algorithm while replacing the Bellman operator with the novel $\Lbar$ operator. It uses ideas from episodic Q-learning to estimate and apply this operator iteratively. Our model-free algorithm improves the existing literature both in simplicity of algorithmic design and regret bounds. Specifically, our algorithm achieves a regret bound of $\tilde{O}(H^5 S\sqrt{AT})$ in the average reward setting, where $S$ and $A$ are the numbers of states and actions, and $T$ is the horizon. A regret bound of $\tilde{O}(H^6 S\sqrt{AT})$ in the episodic setting with fixed episode length $H$ follows as a corollary of this result. Thus, we provide a unified view of algorithm design and regret minimization in episodic and non-episodic settings, which may be of independent interest.

We consider a dynamic pricing problem where customer response to the current price is impacted by the customer price expectation, aka reference price. We study a simple and novel reference price mechanism where reference price is the average of the past prices offered by the seller. As opposed to the more commonly studied exponential smoothing mechanism, in our reference price mechanism the prices offered by seller have a longer term effect on the future customer expectations.

We consider a novel dynamic pricing and learning setting where in addition to setting prices of products in sequential rounds, the seller also ex-ante commits to ‘advertising schemes’. That is, in the beginning of each round the seller can decide what kind of signal they will provide to the buyer about the product’s quality upon realization. Using the popular Bayesian persuasion framework to model the effect of these signals on the buyers’ valuation and purchase responses, we formulate the problem of finding an optimal design of the advertising scheme along with a pricing scheme that maximizes the seller’s expected revenue. Without any apriori knowledge of the buyers’ demand function, our goal is to design an online algorithm that can use past purchase responses to adaptively learn the optimal pricing and advertising strategy. We study the regret of the algorithm when compared to the optimal clairvoyant price and advertising scheme. Our main result is a computationally efficient online algorithm that achieves an $O(T^{2/3}(m \log T )^{1/3})$ regret bound when the valuation function is linear in the product quality. Here $m$ is the cardinality of the discrete product quality domain and $T$ is the time horizon. This result requires some natural monotonicity and Lipschitz assumptions on the valuation function, but no Lipschitz or smoothness assumption on the buyers’ demand function. For constant $m$, our result matches the regret lower bound for dynamic pricing within logarithmic factors, which is a special case of our problem. We also obtain several improved results for the widely considered special case of additive valuations, including an $\tilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret bound independent of $m$ when $m\le T^{1/3}$.

We consider the Scale-Free Adversarial Multi Armed Bandits(MAB) problem. At the beginning of the game, the player only knows the number of arms $n$. It does not know the scale and magnitude of the losses chosen by the adversary or the number of rounds $T$. In each round, it sees bandit feedback about the loss vectors $l_1,…, l_T \in \mathbb{R}^n$. The goal is to bound its regret as a function of $n$ and norms of $l_1,…, l_T$. We design a bandit Follow The Regularized Leader (FTRL) algorithm, that uses an adaptive learning rate and give two different regret bounds, based on the exploration parameter used. With non-adaptive exploration, our algorithm has a regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{nL_2} + L_\infty\sqrt{nT})$ and with adaptive exploration, it has a regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{nL_2} + L_\infty\sqrt{nL_1})$. Here $L_\infty = \sup_t \| l_t\|_\infty$, $L_2 = \sum_{t=1}^T \|l_t\|_2^2$, $L_1 = \sum_{t=1}^T \|l_t\|_1$ and the $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}$ notation suppress logarithmic factors. These are the first MAB bounds that adapt to the $\|\cdot\|_2$, $\|\cdot\|_1$ norms of the losses. The second bound is the first data-dependent scale-free MAB bound as $T$ does not directly appear in the regret. We also develop a new technique for obtaining a rich class of local-norm lower-bounds for Bregman Divergences. This technique plays a crucial role in our analysis for controlling the regret when using importance weighted estimators of unbounded losses. This technique could be of independent interest.

We study the problem of allocating $T$ sequentially arriving items among $n$ homogenous agents under the constraint that each agent must receive a prespecified fraction of all items, with the objective of maximizing the agents' total valuation of items allocated to them. The agents' valuations for the item in each round are assumed to be i.i.d. but their distribution is apriori unknown to the central planner.vTherefore, the central planner needs to implicitly learn these distributions from the observed values in order to pick a good allocation policy. However, an added challenge here is that the agents are strategic with incentives to misreport their valuations in order to receive better allocations. This sets our work apart both from the online auction mechanism design settings which typically assume known valuation distributions and/or involve payments, and from the online learning settings that do not consider strategic agents. To that end, our main contribution is an online learning based allocation mechanism that is approximately Bayesian incentive compatible, and when all agents are truthful, guarantees a sublinear regret for individual agents' utility compared to that under the optimal offline allocation policy.

We study dynamic mechanisms for optimizing revenue in repeated auctions, that are robust to heterogeneous forward-looking and learning behavior of the buyers. Typically it is assumed that the buyers are either all myopic or are all infinite lookahead, and that buyers understand and trust the mechanism. These assumptions raise the following question: is it possible to design approximately revenue optimal mechanisms when the buyer pool is heterogeneous? We provide this fresh perspective on the problem by considering a heterogeneous population of buyers with an unknown mixture of k-lookahead buyers, myopic buyers, no-regret-learners and no-policy-regret learners. Facing this population, we design a simple state-based mechanism that achieves a constant fraction of the optimal achievable revenue.

Most of the dynamic pricing and learning literature has focused on a relatively simple setting where given current pricing decision, demand is independent of past actions and demand values. With the evolution of online platforms and marketplaces, the focus on such homogeneous modeling environments is becoming increasingly less realistic. For example, platforms now rely more and more on online reviews and ratings to inform and guide consumers. Product quality information is also increasingly available on online blogs, discussion forums, and social networks, that create further word-of-mouth effects. One clear implication on the dynamic pricing and learning problem is that the demand environment can no longer be assumed to be static; for example, in the context of online reviews, sales of the product trigger reviews/ratings, and these in turn influence subsequent demand behavior etc. To that end, product diffusion models, such as the popular Bass model [1, 2], are known to be extremely robust and parsimonious, capturing aforementioned word-of-mouth and imitation effects on the growth in sales of a new product. The Bass model describes the process by which new products get adopted as an interaction between existing users and potential new users. It creates a state-dependent evolution of market response which is well aligned with the impact of recent technological developments, such as online review platforms, on the customer purchase behavior.

In this work, we show that discretizing action space for continuous control is a simple yet powerful technique for on-policy optimization. The explosion in the number of discrete actions can be efficiently addressed by a policy with factorized distribution across action dimensions. We show that the discrete policy achieves significant performance gains with state-of-the-art on-policy optimization algorithms (PPO, TRPO, ACKTR) especially on high-dimensional tasks with complex dynamics. Additionally, we show that an ordinal parameterization of the discrete distribution can introduce the inductive bias that encodes the natural ordering between discrete actions. This ordinal architecture further significantly improves the performance of PPO/TRPO.

Integer programming is a general optimization framework with a wide variety of applications, e.g., in scheduling, production planning, and graph optimization. As Integer Programs (IPs) model many provably hard to solve problems, modern IP solvers rely on heuristics. These heuristics are often human-designed, and tuned over time using experience and data. The goal of this work is to show that the performance of those solvers can be greatly enhanced using reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, we investigate a specific methodology for solving IPs, known as the Cutting Plane Method. This method is employed as a subroutine by all modern IP solvers. We present a deep RL formulation, network architecture, and algorithms for intelligent adaptive selection of cutting planes (aka cuts). Across a wide range of IP tasks, we show that our trained RL agent significantly outperforms human-designed heuristics, and effectively generalizes to larger instances and across IP problem classes. The trained agent is also demonstrated to benefit the popular downstream application of cutting plane methods in Branch-and-Cut algorithm, which is the backbone of state-of-the-art commercial IP solvers.

Consider a player who can probe a sequence of n independent random variables X1, . . . , Xn with known distributions. After observing (the realized value of) Xi, the player needs to decide whether to stop and earn reward Xi, or reject the reward and probe the next variable Xi+1. The goal is to maximize the expected reward at the stopping time. This is an instance of the optimal stopping problem, which is a fundamental problem studied from many different aspects in mathematics, statistics, and computer science, and has found a wide variety of applications in sequential decision making and mechanism design.

Inspired by many applications of bipartite matching in online advertising and machine learning, we study a simple and natural iterative proportional allocation algorithm: Maintain a priority score $\priority_a$ for each node $a\in \mathds{A}$ on one side of the bipartition, initialized as $\priority_a=1$. Iteratively allocate the nodes $i\in \impressions$ on the other side to eligible nodes in $\mathds{A}$ in proportion of their priority scores. After each round, for each node $a\in \mathds{A}$, decrease or increase the score $\priority_a$ based on whether it is over- or under- allocated. Our first result is that this simple, distributed algorithm converges to a $(1-\epsilon)$-approximate fractional $b$-matching solution in $O({\log n\over \epsilon^2} )$ rounds. We also extend the proportional allocation algorithm and convergence results to the maximum weighted matching problem, and show that the algorithm can be naturally tuned to produce maximum matching with high entropy. High entropy, in turn, implies additional desirable properties of this matching, e.g., it satisfies certain diversity and fairness (aka anonymity) properties that are desirable in a variety of applications in online advertising and machine learning.

We study a variant of the stochastic $K$-armed bandit problem, which we call "bandits with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback”. In this problem, when the player pulls an arm, a reward is generated, however it is not immediately observed. Instead, at the end of each round the player observes only the sum of a number of previously generated rewards which happen to arrive in the given round. The rewards are stochastically delayed and due to the aggregated nature of the observations, the information of which arm led to a particular reward is lost. The question is what is the cost of the information loss due to this delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback? Previous works have studied bandits with stochastic, non-anonymous delays and found that the regret increases only by an additive factor relating to the expected delay. In this paper, we show that this additive regret increase can be maintained in the harder delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback setting when the expected delay (or a bound on it) is known. We provide an algorithm that matches the worst case regret of the non-anonymous problem exactly when the delays are bounded, and up to logarithmic factors or an additive variance term for unbounded delays.

We propose a framework based on distributional reinforcement learning and recent attempts to combine Bayesian parameter updates with deep reinforcement learning. We show that our proposed framework conceptually unifies multiple previous methods in exploration. We also derive a practical algorithm that achieves efficient exploration on challenging control tasks.

We study revenue optimization in a repeated auction between a single seller anda single buyer. Traditionally, the design of repeated auctions requires strong modeling assumptions about the bidder behavior, such as it being myopic, infinite lookahead, or some specific form of learning behavior. Is it possible to design mechanisms which are simultaneously optimal against a multitude of possible buyer behaviors? We answer this question by designing a simple state-based mechanism that is simultaneously approximately optimal against a k -lookahead buyer for all k , a buyer who is a no-regret learner, and a buyer who is a policy-regret learner. Against each type of buyer our mechanism attains a constant fraction of the optimal revenue attainable against that type of buyer. We complement our positive results with almost tight impossibility results, showing that the revenue approximation tradeoffs achieved by our mechanism for different lookahead attitudes are near-optimal.

We consider a sequential subset selection problem under parameter uncertainty, where at each time step, the decision maker selects a subset of cardinality $K$ from $N$ possible items (arms), and observes a (bandit) feedback in the form of the index of one of the items in said subset, or none. Each item in the index set is ascribed a certain value (reward), and the feedback is governed by a Multinomial Logit (MNL) choice model whose parameters are a priori unknown. The objective of the decision maker is to maximize the expected cumulative rewards over a finite horizon $T$, or alternatively, minimize the regret relative to an oracle that knows the MNL parameters. We refer to this as the MNL-Bandit problem. This problem is representative of a larger family of exploration-exploitation problems that involve a combinatorial objective, and arise in several important application domains. We present an approach to adapt Thompson Sampling to this problem and show that it achieves near-optimal regret as well as attractive numerical performance.

We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, though unknown, diameter. Our main result is a high probability regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}(D\sqrt{SAT})$ for any communicating MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and diameter $D$, when $T\ge S^5A$. Here, regret compares the total reward achieved by the algorithm to the total expected reward of an optimal infinite-horizon undiscounted average reward policy, in time horizon $T$. This result improves over the best previously known upper bound of $\tilde{O}(DS\sqrt{AT})$ achieved by any algorithm in this setting, and matches the dependence on $S$ in the established lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{DSAT})$ for this problem. Our techniques involve proving some novel results about the anti-concentration of Dirichlet distribution, which may be of independent interest.

Thompson Sampling (TS) is one of the oldest heuristics for multiarmed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated that it has favorable empirical performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods. In this article, a novel and almost tight martingale-based regret analysis for Thompson Sampling is presented. Our technique simultaneously yields both problem-dependent and problem-independent bounds: (1) the first near-optimal problem-independent bound of O (√ NT ln T ) on the expected regret and (2) the optimal problem-dependent bound of (1 + ϵ)Σ i ln T / d (μ i ,μ 1 ) + O ( N /ϵ 2 ) on the expected regret (this bound was first proven by Kaufmann et al. (2012b)). Our technique is conceptually simple and easily extends to distributions other than the Beta distribution used in the original TS algorithm. For the version of TS that uses Gaussian priors, we prove a problem-independent bound of O (√ NT ln N ) on the expected regret and show the optimality of this bound by providing a matching lower bound. This is the first lower bound on the performance of a natural version of Thompson Sampling that is away from the general lower bound of Ω (√ NT ) for the multiarmed bandit problem.

We consider a contextual version of multi-armed bandit problem with global knapsack constraints. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a scalar reward and a resource consumption vector, both dependent on the context, and the global knapsack constraints require the total consumption for each resource to be below some pre-fixed budget. The learning agent competes with an arbitrary set of context-dependent policies. This problem was introduced by Badanidiyuru et al., who gave a computationally inefficient algorithm with near-optimal regret bounds for it. We give a \emphcomputationally efficient algorithm for this problem with slightly better regret bounds, by generalizing the approach of Dudik et al. for the non-constrained version of the problem. The computational time of our algorithm scales \emphlogarithmically in the size of the policy space. This answers the main open question of Badanidiyuru et al. We also extend our results to a variant where there are no knapsack constraints but the objective is an arbitrary Lipschitz concave function of the sum of outcome vectors.

We consider the linear contextual bandit problem with resource consumption, in addition to reward generation. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a reward as well as a vector of resource consumptions. The expected values of these outcomes depend linearly on the context of that arm. The budget/capacity constraints require that the sum of these vectors doesn't exceed the budget in each dimension. The objective is once again to maximize the total reward. This problem turns out to be a common generalization of classic linear contextual bandits (linContextual), bandits with knapsacks (BwK), and the online stochastic packing problem (OSPP). We present algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds for this problem. Our bounds compare favorably to results on the unstructured version of the problem, where the relation between the contexts and the outcomes could be arbitrary, but the algorithm only competes against a fixed set of policies accessible through an optimization oracle. We combine techniques from the work on linContextual, BwK and OSPP in a nontrivial manner while also tackling new difficulties that are not present in any of these special cases.

We consider an online assortment optimization problem, where in every round, the retailer offers a K-cardinality subset (assortment) of N substitutable products to a consumer, and observes the response. We model consumer choice behavior using the widely used multinomial logit (MNL) model, and consider the retailer's problem of dynamically learning the model parameters, while optimizing cumulative revenues over the selling horizon T. Formulating this as a variant of a multi-armed bandit problem, we present an algorithm based on the principle of "optimism in the face of uncertainty." A naive MAB formulation would treat each of the N choose K possible assortments as a distinct "arm", leading to regret bounds that are exponential in K. We show that by exploiting the specific characteristics of the MNL model it is possible to design an algorithm with Õ(√NT) regret, under a mild assumption. We demonstrate that this performance is nearly optimal, by providing a (randomized) instance of this problem on which any online algorithm would incur at least ΩOmega(√NT/K) regret.

We introduce the online stochastic Convex Programming (CP) problem, a very general version of stochastic online problems which allows arbitrary concave objectives and convex feasibility constraints. Many well-studied problems like online stochastic packing and covering, online stochastic matching with concave returns, etc. form a special case of online stochastic CP. We present fast algorithms for these problems, which achieve near-optimal regret guarantees for both the i.i.d. and the random permutation models of stochastic inputs. When applied to the special case online packing, our ideas yield a simpler and faster primal-dual algorithm for this well studied problem, which achieves the optimal competitive ratio. Our techniques make explicit the connection of primal-dual paradigm and online learning to online stochastic CP.

Thompson Sampling (TS) has surged a lot of interest due to its good empirical performance, in particular in the computational advertising. Though successful, the tools for its performance analysis appeared only recently. In this paper, we describe and analyze SpectralTS algorithm for a bandit problem, where the payoffs of the choices are smooth given an underlying graph. In this setting, each choice is a node of a graph and the expected payoffs of the neighboring nodes are assumed to be similar. Although the setting has application both in recommender systems and advertising, the traditional algorithms would scale poorly with the number of choices. For that purpose we consider an effective dimension d, which is small in real-world graphs. We deliver the analysis showing that the regret of SpectralTS scales as d\sqrt(T \ln N) with high probability, where T is the time horizon and N is the number of choices. Since a d\sqrt(T \ln N) regret is comparable to the known results, SpectralTS offers a computationally more efficient alternative. We also show that our algorithm is competitive on both synthetic and real-world data.

In this paper, we consider a very general model for exploration-exploitation tradeoff which allows arbitrary concave rewards and convex constraints on the decisions across time, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. This model subsumes the classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) model, and the Bandits with Knapsacks (BwK) model of Badanidiyuru et al.[2013]. We also consider an extension of this model to allow linear contexts, similar to the linear contextual extension of the MAB model. We demonstrate that a natural and simple extension of the UCB family of algorithms for MAB provides a polynomial time algorithm that has near-optimal regret guarantees for this substantially more general model, and matches the bounds provided by Badanidiyuru et al.[2013] for the special case of BwK, which is quite surprising. We also provide computationally more efficient algorithms by establishing interesting connections between this problem and other well studied problems/algorithms such as the Blackwell approachability problem, online convex optimization, and the Frank-Wolfe technique for convex optimization.

Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it to have comparable or better empirical performance compared to the state of the art methods. In this paper, we provide a novel regret analysis for Thompson Sampling that proves the first near-optimal problem-independent bound of O(\sqrtNT\ln T) on the expected regret of this algorithm. Our novel martingale-based analysis techniques are conceptually simple, and easily extend to distributions other than the Beta distribution. For the version of Thompson Sampling that uses Gaussian priors, we prove a problem-independent bound of O(\sqrtNT\ln N) on the expected regret, and demonstrate the optimality of this bound by providing a matching lower bound. This lower bound of Ω(\sqrtNT\ln N) is the first lower bound on the performance of a natural version of Thompson Sampling that is away from the general lower bound of O(\sqrtNT) for the multi-armed bandit problem. Our near-optimal problem-independent bounds for Thompson Sampling solve a COLT 2012 open problem of Chapelle and Li. Additionally, our techniques simultaneously provide the optimal problem-dependent bound of (1+ε)\sum_i \frac\ln Td(\mu_i, \mu_1)+O(\fracNε^2) on the expected regret. The optimal problem-dependent regret bound for this problem was first proven recently by Kaufmann et al. [2012].

Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it to have better empirical performance compared to the state of the art methods. However, many questions regarding its theoretical performance remained open. In this paper, we design and analyze Thompson Sampling algorithm for the stochastic contextual multi-armed bandit problem with linear payoff functions, when the contexts are provided by an adaptive adversary. This is among the most important and widely studied version of the contextual bandits problem. We prove a high probability regret bound of \tildeO(\fracd\sqrtε\sqrtT^1+ε) in time T for any ε∈(0,1), where d is the dimension of each context vector and εis a parameter used by the algorithm. Our results provide the first theoretical guarantees for the contextual version of Thompson Sampling, and are close to the lower bound of Ω(\sqrtdT) for this problem. This essentially solves the COLT open problem of Chapelle and Li [COLT 2012] regarding regret bounds for Thompson Sampling for contextual bandits problem with linear payoff functions. Our version of Thompson sampling uses Gaussian prior and Gaussian likelihood function. Our novel martingale-based analysis techniques also allow easy extensions to the use of other distributions, satisfying certain general conditions.

We consider a robust model proposed by Scarf, 1958, for stochastic optimization when only the marginal probabilities of (binary) random variables are given, and the correlation between the random variables is unknown. In the robust model, the objective is to minimize expected cost against worst possible joint distribution with those marginals. We introduce the concept of correlation gap to compare this model to the stochastic optimization model that ignores correlations and minimizes expected cost under independent Bernoulli distribution. We identify a class of functions, using concepts of summable cost sharing schemes from game theory, for which the correlation gap is well-bounded and the robust model can be approximated closely by the independent distribution model. As a result, we derive efficient approximation factors for many popular cost functions, like submodular functions, facility location, and Steiner tree. As a byproduct, our analysis also yields some new results in the areas of social welfare maximization and existence of Walrasian equilibria, which may be of independent interest.

Recently, coinciding with and perhaps driving the increased popularity of prediction markets, several novel pari-mutuel mechanisms have been developed such as the logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), the cost-function formulation of market makers, and the sequential convex parimutuel mechanism (SCPM). In this work, we present a unified convex optimization framework which connects these seemingly unrelated models for centrally organizing contingent claims markets. The existing mechanisms can be expressed in our unified framework using classic utility functions. We also show that this framework is equivalent to a convex risk minimization model for the market maker. This facilitates a better understanding of the risk attitudes adopted by various mechanisms. The utility framework also leads to easy implementation since we can now find the useful cost function of a market maker in polynomial time through the solution of a simple convex optimization problem.

In many distributed environments, the primary function of monitoring software is to detect anomalies, i.e., instances when system behavior deviates substantially from the norm. In this paper, we propose communication-efficient schemes for the anomaly detection problem, which we model as one of detecting the violation of global constraints defined over distributed system variables. Our approach eliminates the need to continuously track the global system state by decomposing global constraints into local constraints that can be checked efficiently at each site. Only in the occasional event that a local constraint is violated, do we resort to more expensive global constraint checking. We show that the problem of selecting the local constraints, based on frequency distribution of individual system variables, so as to minimize the communication cost is NP-hard. We propose approximation algorithms for computing provably near-optimal (in terms of the number of messages) local constraints. Experimental results with real-life network traffic data sets demonstrate that our technique can reduce message communication overhead by as much as 70% compared to existing data distribution-agnostic approaches.

In this paper, we develop passive network tomography techniques for inferring link-level anomalies like excessive loss rates and delay from path-level measurements. Our approach involves placing a few passive monitoring devices on strategic links within the network, and then passively monitoring the performance of network paths that pass through those links. In order to keep the monitoring infrastructure and communication costs low, we focus on minimizing (1) the number of passive probe devices deployed, and (2) the set of monitored paths. For mesh topologies, we show that the above two minimization problems are NP-hard, and consequently, devise polynomial-time greedy algorithms that achieve a logarithmic approximation factor, which is the best possible for any algorithm. We also consider tree topologies typical of Enterprise networks, and show that while similar NP-hardness results hold, constant factor approximation algorithms are possible for such topologies.

To preserve client privacy in the data mining process, a variety of techniques based on random perturbation of individual data records have been proposed recently. In this paper, we present FRAPP, a generalized matrix-theoretic framework of random perturbation, which facilitates a systematic approach to the design of perturbation mechanisms for privacy-preserving mining. Specifically, FRAPP is used to demonstrate that (a) the prior techniques differ only in their choices for the perturbation matrix elements, and (b) a symmetric perturbation matrix with minimal condition number can be identified, maximizing the accuracy even under strict privacy guarantees. We also propose a novel perturbation mechanism wherein the matrix elements are themselves characterized as random variables, and demonstrate that this feature provides significant improvements in privacy at only a marginal cost in accuracy. The quantitative utility of FRAPP, which applies to random-perturbation-based privacy-preserving mining in general, is evaluated specifically with regard to frequent-itemset mining on a variety of real datasets. Our experimental results indicate that, for a given privacy requirement, substantially lower errors are incurred, with respect to both itemset identity and itemset support, as compared to the prior techniques.