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Hypergraph Diffusion-Based Sequential Ensemble for CTR Prediction

sigir26-146 · Full research paper · Zeheng Zhong, Hongzhi Liu, Gong Chen, Boyuan Ren, Guomin Qin, Zhonghai Wu
CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction · 50% Diffusion and Flow Recommenders · 50%
Abstract

Click-through Rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in online advertising and recommender systems. Theoretically, proper ensemble of multiple different CTR prediction models can improve the prediction effectiveness. Unfortunately, most of the existing ensemble learning methods for CTR prediction are designed for cross-sectional data and neglect user historical behavior sequence which is important for predicting user's future click behavior. To address the above issues, we propose a Hypergraph Diffusion-based Sequential Ensemble framework for CTR prediction (HDSE). Specifically, considering the inherent capability of diffusion models in space exploration, we design a generalized conditional diffusion model, which adaptively identifies critical information from diverse sequential models, to capture user's dynamic interest evolution across diverse contexts. To avoid corrupting the item dependencies caused by isotropic Gaussian noise used in traditional diffusion models, we construct a behavior hypergraph and design an anisotropic hypergraph-based smoothing operator to inject structure-aware noise for better exploring the user's interest space. For large-scale application scenarios, we propose a computationally efficient approximation method for estimating hypergraph propagation matrix in the smoothing operator. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Assigned reviewers

#ReviewerMatchWhy (closest evidence publications in the taxonomy)
1 Ching Law
53
65 DPEO: Dynamic Preference Evolution Optimization for Self-Evolving CTR Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 Uni-Layout: Integrating Human Feedback in Unified Layout Generation and Evaluation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
65 MoFu: Scale-Aware Modulation and Fourier Fusion for Multi-Subject Video Generation (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
2 Jie Jiang 0015
52
65 Deep Pattern Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
64 Long-Sequence Recommendation Models Need Decoupled Embeddings (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
3 Yu Zhang 0206
51
69 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 Infer As You Train: A Symmetric Paradigm of Masked Generative for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction

Area chair

Area chairMatch
Yanan Niu 48
Area-chair candidates (3)
Yanan Niu assigned 4815 papers
Kun Gai 465 papers
Xiaoyi Zeng 4411 papers

Candidates from the panel ranked by match score

#ReviewerMatchLoadWhy
1 Ke Fei 69 3
65 Entire-Space Variational Information Exploitation for Post-Click Conversion Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 Inverse Contrastive Representation Learning for Post-Click Conversion Rate Estimation (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
2 Junwei Pan 60 3
71 Ads Recommendation in a Collapsed and Entangled World (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
3 Xin Zhang 0091 56 3
73 Deep Session Heterogeneity-Aware Network for Click Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
73 Deep Dynamic Interest Learning With Session Local and Global Consistency for Click-Through Rate Predictions (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
4 Jinxin Hu 54 3
71 Counterfactual Multi-task Learning for Delayed Conversion Modeling in E-commerce Sales Pre-Promotion (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
5 Zhengyi Yang 0007 54 3
65 Generate What You Prefer: Reshaping Sequential Recommendation via Guided Diffusion (2023) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
65 On Efficiency-Effectiveness Trade-off of Diffusion-based Recommenders (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
6 Xuanhua Yang 54 3
76 Hierarchical User Long-term Behavior Modeling for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
71 Towards Personalized Bundle Creative Generation with Contrastive Non-Autoregressive Decoding (2022) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
7 Ching Law assigned 53 3
65 DPEO: Dynamic Preference Evolution Optimization for Self-Evolving CTR Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 Uni-Layout: Integrating Human Feedback in Unified Layout Generation and Evaluation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
8 Yong He 0009 53 3
71 DCBT: A Simple But Effective Way for Unified Warm and Cold Recommendation (2023) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
69 GFlow-FT: Pick a Child Network via Gradient Flow for Efficient Fine-Tuning in Recommendation Systems (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
9 Yi Zhang 0103 53 3
67 AdaGIN: Adaptive Graph Interaction Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 CETN: Contrast-enhanced Through Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
10 Jie Jiang 0015 assigned 52 3
65 Deep Pattern Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
11 Yu Zhang 0206 assigned 51 3
69 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
12 Wei Guo 0006 50 3
65 Enhancing Explicit and Implicit Feature Interactions via Information Sharing for Parallel Deep CTR Models (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
65 DLF: Enhancing Explicit-Implicit Interaction via Dynamic Low-Order-Aware Fusion for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
13 Shuchang Liu 0001 49 3
71 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
70 Modeling User Retention through Generative Flow Networks (2024) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
14 Lantao Hu 49 3
67 Distinguished Quantized Guidance for Diffusion-based Sequence Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
65 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
15 Qiang Luo 0004 49 3
67 One Model to Serve All: Star Topology Adaptive Recommender for Multi-Domain CTR Prediction (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
60 DiffGRM: Diffusion-based Generative Recommendation Model (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
16 Jieming Zhu 48 3
63 Data-free Knowledge Distillation for Reusing Recommendation Models (2023) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
61 TayFCS: Towards Light Feature Combination Selection for Deep Recommender Systems (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
17 Jiuqiang Li 0002 48 3
67 Disentangled Contrastive Bundle Recommendation with Conditional Diffusion (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
36 Graph Diffusive Self-Supervised Learning for Social Recommendation (2024) Social and Group Recommendation
18 Jiangxia Cao 48 3
71 From Agnostic to Specific: Latent Preference Diffusion for Multi-Behavior Sequential Recommendation (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
65 ChorusCVR: Chorus Supervision for Entire Space Post-Click Conversion Rate Modeling (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
20 Bo Peng 0009 46 3
61 SWaT: Statistical Modeling of Video Watch Time through User Behavior Analysis (2025) User Behavior and Search Interaction
47 M2: Mixed Models With Preferences, Popularities and Transitions for Next-Basket Recommendation (2023) Efficient and Long-Sequence Sequential Recommendation
22 Yongjing Hao 46 3
65 Exploiting Intra and Inter-field Feature Interaction with Self-Attentive Network for CTR Prediction (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
58 Meta-Optimized Joint Generative and Contrastive Learning for Sequential Recommendation (2024) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
23 Xialong Liu 46 3
66 S-Diff: An Anisotropic Diffusion Model for Collaborative Filtering in Spectral Domain (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
65 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
24 Lichan Hong 46 3
65 DCN V2: Improved Deep & Cross Network and Practical Lessons for Web-scale Learning to Rank Systems (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
48 Better Generalization with Semantic IDs: A Case Study in Ranking for Recommendations (2024) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs
25 Yuta Saito 45 3
70 Doubly Robust Estimator for Ranking Metrics with Post-Click Conversions (2020) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
47 Off-Policy Evaluation of Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behavior (2023) Recommendation with Search and Ranking
26 Yimeng Bai 45 3
65 Unconstrained Monotonic Calibration of Predictions in Deep Ranking Systems (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
43 Leveraging Watch-time Feedback for Short-Video Recommendations: A Causal Labeling Framework (2023) Recommendation Systems and Evaluation
28 Qijiong Liu 44 3
69 Boosting Deep CTR Prediction with a Plug-and-Play Pre-trainer for News Recommendation (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction
52 Can LLMs Outshine Conventional Recommenders? A Comparative Evaluation (2025) Efficiency and Deployment
29 Han Li 0005 44 3
70 DiffusionGS: Generative Search with Query Conditioned Diffusion in Kuaishou (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
45 Enhancing Sequential Recommender with Large Language Models for Joint Video and Comment Recommendation (2025) Sequential and Session-based Recommendation
30 Jiancan Wu 43 3
66 Generate What You Prefer: Reshaping Sequential Recommendation via Guided Diffusion (2023) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
63 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders
31 Bowen Zheng 0005 43 3
47 Generative Recommender with End-to-End Learnable Item Tokenization (2025) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs
46 Bridging Textual-Collaborative Gap through Semantic Codes for Sequential Recommendation (2025) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs
32 Fei Sun 0001 43 3
45 SDM: Sequential Deep Matching Model for Online Large-scale Recommender System (2019) Multi-Behavior and Multi-Interest Sequential Recommendation
45 Intent Preference Decoupling for User Representation on Online Recommender System (2020) Sequential Recommendation with User Modeling and Profiling
33 Bo Chen 0023 43 3
47 Generative Representational Learning of Foundation Models for Recommendation (2026) Generative Retrieval and Ranking
45 ReLLa: Retrieval-enhanced Large Language Models for Lifelong Sequential Behavior Comprehension in Recommendation (2024) Sequential and Session-based Recommendation