Hypergraph Diffusion-Based Sequential Ensemble for CTR Prediction
Abstract
Click-through Rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in online advertising and recommender systems. Theoretically, proper ensemble of multiple different CTR prediction models can improve the prediction effectiveness. Unfortunately, most of the existing ensemble learning methods for CTR prediction are designed for cross-sectional data and neglect user historical behavior sequence which is important for predicting user's future click behavior. To address the above issues, we propose a Hypergraph Diffusion-based Sequential Ensemble framework for CTR prediction (HDSE). Specifically, considering the inherent capability of diffusion models in space exploration, we design a generalized conditional diffusion model, which adaptively identifies critical information from diverse sequential models, to capture user's dynamic interest evolution across diverse contexts. To avoid corrupting the item dependencies caused by isotropic Gaussian noise used in traditional diffusion models, we construct a behavior hypergraph and design an anisotropic hypergraph-based smoothing operator to inject structure-aware noise for better exploring the user's interest space. For large-scale application scenarios, we propose a computationally efficient approximation method for estimating hypergraph propagation matrix in the smoothing operator. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
Assigned reviewers
| # | Reviewer | Match | Why (closest evidence publications in the taxonomy) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ching Law | 53 | 65 DPEO: Dynamic Preference Evolution Optimization for Self-Evolving CTR Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 Uni-Layout: Integrating Human Feedback in Unified Layout Generation and Evaluation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 65 MoFu: Scale-Aware Modulation and Fourier Fusion for Multi-Subject Video Generation (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 2 | Jie Jiang 0015 | 52 | 65 Deep Pattern Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 64 Long-Sequence Recommendation Models Need Decoupled Embeddings (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 3 | Yu Zhang 0206 | 51 | 69 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 Infer As You Train: A Symmetric Paradigm of Masked Generative for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
Area chair
| Area chair | Match | |
|---|---|---|
| Yanan Niu | 48 |
Area-chair candidates (3)
| Yanan Niu assigned | 48 | 15 papers | |
| Kun Gai | 46 | 5 papers | |
| Xiaoyi Zeng | 44 | 11 papers |
Candidates from the panel ranked by match score
| # | Reviewer | Match | Load | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ke Fei | 69 | 3 | 65 Entire-Space Variational Information Exploitation for Post-Click Conversion Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 Inverse Contrastive Representation Learning for Post-Click Conversion Rate Estimation (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 2 | Junwei Pan | 60 | 3 | 71 Ads Recommendation in a Collapsed and Entangled World (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 3 | Xin Zhang 0091 | 56 | 3 | 73 Deep Session Heterogeneity-Aware Network for Click Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 73 Deep Dynamic Interest Learning With Session Local and Global Consistency for Click-Through Rate Predictions (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 4 | Jinxin Hu | 54 | 3 | 71 Counterfactual Multi-task Learning for Delayed Conversion Modeling in E-commerce Sales Pre-Promotion (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 5 | Zhengyi Yang 0007 | 54 | 3 | 65 Generate What You Prefer: Reshaping Sequential Recommendation via Guided Diffusion (2023) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 65 On Efficiency-Effectiveness Trade-off of Diffusion-based Recommenders (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 6 | Xuanhua Yang | 54 | 3 | 76 Hierarchical User Long-term Behavior Modeling for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 71 Towards Personalized Bundle Creative Generation with Contrastive Non-Autoregressive Decoding (2022) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 7 | Ching Law assigned | 53 | 3 | 65 DPEO: Dynamic Preference Evolution Optimization for Self-Evolving CTR Prediction (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 Uni-Layout: Integrating Human Feedback in Unified Layout Generation and Evaluation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 8 | Yong He 0009 | 53 | 3 | 71 DCBT: A Simple But Effective Way for Unified Warm and Cold Recommendation (2023) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 69 GFlow-FT: Pick a Child Network via Gradient Flow for Efficient Fine-Tuning in Recommendation Systems (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 9 | Yi Zhang 0103 | 53 | 3 | 67 AdaGIN: Adaptive Graph Interaction Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 CETN: Contrast-enhanced Through Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 10 | Jie Jiang 0015 assigned | 52 | 3 | 65 Deep Pattern Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2024) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 AutoAttention: Automatic Field Pair Selection for Attention in User Behavior Modeling (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 11 | Yu Zhang 0206 assigned | 51 | 3 | 69 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 69 LREA: Low-Rank Efficient Attention on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 12 | Wei Guo 0006 | 50 | 3 | 65 Enhancing Explicit and Implicit Feature Interactions via Information Sharing for Parallel Deep CTR Models (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 65 DLF: Enhancing Explicit-Implicit Interaction via Dynamic Low-Order-Aware Fusion for CTR Prediction (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 13 | Shuchang Liu 0001 | 49 | 3 | 71 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 70 Modeling User Retention through Generative Flow Networks (2024) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 14 | Lantao Hu | 49 | 3 | 67 Distinguished Quantized Guidance for Diffusion-based Sequence Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 65 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 15 | Qiang Luo 0004 | 49 | 3 | 67 One Model to Serve All: Star Topology Adaptive Recommender for Multi-Domain CTR Prediction (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 60 DiffGRM: Diffusion-based Generative Recommendation Model (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 16 | Jieming Zhu | 48 | 3 | 63 Data-free Knowledge Distillation for Reusing Recommendation Models (2023) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 61 TayFCS: Towards Light Feature Combination Selection for Deep Recommender Systems (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 17 | Jiuqiang Li 0002 | 48 | 3 | 67 Disentangled Contrastive Bundle Recommendation with Conditional Diffusion (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 36 Graph Diffusive Self-Supervised Learning for Social Recommendation (2024) Social and Group Recommendation |
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| 18 | Jiangxia Cao | 48 | 3 | 71 From Agnostic to Specific: Latent Preference Diffusion for Multi-Behavior Sequential Recommendation (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 65 ChorusCVR: Chorus Supervision for Entire Space Post-Click Conversion Rate Modeling (2026) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 20 | Bo Peng 0009 | 46 | 3 | 61 SWaT: Statistical Modeling of Video Watch Time through User Behavior Analysis (2025) User Behavior and Search Interaction 47 M2: Mixed Models With Preferences, Popularities and Transitions for Next-Basket Recommendation (2023) Efficient and Long-Sequence Sequential Recommendation |
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| 22 | Yongjing Hao | 46 | 3 | 65 Exploiting Intra and Inter-field Feature Interaction with Self-Attentive Network for CTR Prediction (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 58 Meta-Optimized Joint Generative and Contrastive Learning for Sequential Recommendation (2024) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 23 | Xialong Liu | 46 | 3 | 66 S-Diff: An Anisotropic Diffusion Model for Collaborative Filtering in Spectral Domain (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 65 Adversarial Filtering Modeling on Long-term User Behavior Sequences for Click-Through Rate Prediction (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction |
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| 24 | Lichan Hong | 46 | 3 | 65 DCN V2: Improved Deep & Cross Network and Practical Lessons for Web-scale Learning to Rank Systems (2021) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 48 Better Generalization with Semantic IDs: A Case Study in Ranking for Recommendations (2024) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs |
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| 25 | Yuta Saito | 45 | 3 | 70 Doubly Robust Estimator for Ranking Metrics with Post-Click Conversions (2020) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 47 Off-Policy Evaluation of Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behavior (2023) Recommendation with Search and Ranking |
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| 26 | Yimeng Bai | 45 | 3 | 65 Unconstrained Monotonic Calibration of Predictions in Deep Ranking Systems (2025) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 43 Leveraging Watch-time Feedback for Short-Video Recommendations: A Causal Labeling Framework (2023) Recommendation Systems and Evaluation |
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| 28 | Qijiong Liu | 44 | 3 | 69 Boosting Deep CTR Prediction with a Plug-and-Play Pre-trainer for News Recommendation (2022) CTR and Conversion Rate Prediction 52 Can LLMs Outshine Conventional Recommenders? A Comparative Evaluation (2025) Efficiency and Deployment |
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| 29 | Han Li 0005 | 44 | 3 | 70 DiffusionGS: Generative Search with Query Conditioned Diffusion in Kuaishou (2026) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 45 Enhancing Sequential Recommender with Large Language Models for Joint Video and Comment Recommendation (2025) Sequential and Session-based Recommendation |
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| 30 | Jiancan Wu | 43 | 3 | 66 Generate What You Prefer: Reshaping Sequential Recommendation via Guided Diffusion (2023) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders 63 Fading to Grow: Growing Preference Ratios via Preference Fading Discrete Diffusion for Recommendation (2025) Diffusion and Flow Recommenders |
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| 31 | Bowen Zheng 0005 | 43 | 3 | 47 Generative Recommender with End-to-End Learnable Item Tokenization (2025) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs 46 Bridging Textual-Collaborative Gap through Semantic Codes for Sequential Recommendation (2025) Item Tokenization and Semantic IDs |
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| 32 | Fei Sun 0001 | 43 | 3 | 45 SDM: Sequential Deep Matching Model for Online Large-scale Recommender System (2019) Multi-Behavior and Multi-Interest Sequential Recommendation 45 Intent Preference Decoupling for User Representation on Online Recommender System (2020) Sequential Recommendation with User Modeling and Profiling |
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| 33 | Bo Chen 0023 | 43 | 3 | 47 Generative Representational Learning of Foundation Models for Recommendation (2026) Generative Retrieval and Ranking 45 ReLLa: Retrieval-enhanced Large Language Models for Lifelong Sequential Behavior Comprehension in Recommendation (2024) Sequential and Session-based Recommendation |